DH7 Trades the Bond Futures

[ThingyMajiggy]

Well that's what I was thinking to minwa. It's more legitimate.

Anyone can say I bought at this price and sold at this price. The idea was to prove that my fills were real time.

I was thinking just posting up a screenshot of your fills window, but whatever way you want to is fine, just thought it might be easier to post a broader less-common post, but if you're happy to spend the time posting individual trades, go for it

What do mean about "more legitimate"? Are you trading a live account?

 

[darkhorse70]

I agree, well then I shall do half day posts on my trading performance with the fills etc and if market activity is changing ill post that separately. That way its more easier to read as well as updating people on whats happening around the world.

No im not trading a live account for the moment but I hope there no differentiation between a live account and a sim account in terms of how I would trade. The bottom line is, to me this is a form of marketing myself as a trader. I'm hoping that I can build up a reputation in a few years (if im competent enough as a trader) to raise capital and run my own fund.

As far as Im aware, managing other peoples money is the most logical route to take. At the moment my performance is meaningless but hopefully a few years down the track I can be credible enough + a track record to use as evidence. With this in consideration, im just trying to be as transparent as possible.

 

[darkhorse70]

Lost 2 points on 2 lots.

Loss = $120USD

Long 3 x @ 13.5

I was holding before the figure releases at 7pm and 7:30pm.

It was stupid but I realized 1min before the 7pm release. Since the markets were in a position to turn around, hence why I took the trade, I figured the odds were in my favor. After 7pm, notes were slightly more bid so I had a bit of buffer.

 

[darkhorse70]

Sold 1 for 2 ticks = $30USD

Averaged down 4 lots at 11.5

Risky move buy I believe in the trade. Risky in the sense that i could ruin my entire weeks hard work to B/E...

 

[minwa]

Its a double edged sword. I mean if you have a high win rate, low equity draw down, capital is no problem. The beauty of derivatives is leverage. But hanging on to bigger winners could create a more volatile equity curve with potentially more draw downs...

I was in the same dilemma few years ago. I found the my sweet spot closest to the best of both worlds is to only enter when price is moving against you in your intended direction and to have a first target and scale out with the rest holding to capture the majority of the daily range.

 

[darkhorse70]

Hey minwa, yeah i agree with you. I might have to start trading with 3 lots, to possibly sell 2 quickly and hold on one to capture the rest of the run. That way I can increase potential profits while atleast capturing some if it goes against me.

On another note, I screwed up big time last night. I went offside nearly 10points with 4 lots. I was going insane, smashing my computer chair, using all kinds of profanities. Lol can only imagine what my mum thinks.

I just believed in the trade. Equities kept stalling, stalling then pushing up, notes kept going offered. Notes went bid, I went onside after all that then they went back offered.

I couldnt do anything but went to sleep, waking up at 8am, only offside by 1 tick.

This weeks been a disaster. I need to calculate losses but its probably around $50-100usd, but I had 3 shocking trading days. Im especially upset that I let a trade go that offside. I stick with trades I believe in but It can cause huge damage that takes days to work back.

The anger I hold when that happens carries on the entire day...

Anyway, like Kham says, dips, peaks,dips peaks.

As long as I havent caused realized damage, theres another day to trade.

 

[darkhorse70]

The hardest thing is trading for 50hrs in 1 week and ending lower on your P/L. I know its not about P/L in the short term but yeah mentally draining.

Now going to go practice some dirt bike wheelies, need to clear my mind haha.

 

[History Repeats]

DH have you considered other spread combos? also have you considered longer holding period? CME listed spreads have very low margin. Grinding out like you do now seem to me not worth the time, IMO anyway.

 

[darkhorse70]

Hey history, well I haven't really considered other spreads. Theres no way to avoid the long hours, that is if you want to be good. When I was at the prop shop, had to be at the office by 7am and as a trainee, we would leave by earliest 5pm.

Some of these traders would go home in the afternoon, only to wake at at 12am to come in for a figure release, trade that, go to sleep in the office, wake up again in the morning to trade.

Screen time is everything. I enjoy watching the markets. But usually ive got other random things open on the computer as the markets are usually bat sh@t boring/slow.

I know some exchanges offer spreads but if those are available, then I guess heaps of people are already trading them.

I love the rush of short term trading because it keeps my brain active. More stress but more of a thrill.

 

[darkhorse70]

Sorry for the lack of update.

I had it typed out but accidentally shut the comp off.

Long story short, had three trades. Was down $180, now im up $110.

Markets been very very slow apart from the small sell offs in the equity due to the sell off in CL. Not sure if theres another catalyst....

 

[darkhorse70]

Sold 2 x @ 21.5

Averaged down and sold another one, total averaged @ 22.0

To me, when a market stalls and is possibly going to start to head in your direction and you can sell more at a cheaper price, I think its a good strategy. That way I can buy back 2 later on and hold one for a bigger move.

 

[darkhorse70]

Ok, so after taking some major heat in the position and sizing up, the trade came my way.

Unfortunately I only made $140 at the end which is chump change for the size. I was in good shape during the time it was in my favor but I decided to take some heat off and let it run before cutting the position down.

Two things which concern me is how far im going offside at times. It's huge and could be mentally and physically debilitating. I need to get a grip of that.

Second thing is using position sizing and trading bigger size is such an asset to have. As TH said, thats half the game and Im coming to realize, its such an effective tool if utilized correctly.

Now the key is to learn how to use it effectively...

 

[VSntchr]

Unfortunately I only made $140 at the end which is chump change for the size. I was in good shape during the time it was in my favor but I decided to take some heat off and let it run before cutting the position down.

Two things which concern me is how far im going offside at times. It's huge and could be mentally and physically debilitating. I need to get a grip of that.

How far offside are you going compared to your average winner?
Have you considered the impact to your account if the strategy of holding through a drawdown fails at some point?

Not discrediting your strategy at all btw, just poking my head in for a look.

 

[darkhorse70]

Well at two times its gone offside by 900$USD which is absolutely insane. Yesterday it went that far offside before it went onside by about 600$USD. My average winners are between 60-150$

Hypothetically im trading with a 20k account so its still a big drop but from now on, If im going to average down losers, it needs to be planned out more carefully.

The problem is, the markets some times keep going before they turn around and Im exposed to more downside, but if I cut the position, then it turns around, ive lost.

I know every one says cut losers, set stop losses but I feel like I have to explore paths contrary to popular belief. We've been taught all these strategies, which every one says are crucial. But yet, theres so few good traders out there and we really dont even know how they trade. Were just taught that these rules are the 10 commandments.


I need to start averaging down at better key timings. Believe me, I lose sleep over the fact that Ive gone so far offside and if that trade doesn't revert, Im a goner. I just need to ensure that I hold on for longer when positions go my way. If I can go from being so far offiside to back in the green, then theres no reason why I shouldnt be able to capture bigger profitable chunks.

And of course I know youre not trying to discredit me.

 

[darkhorse70]

Sell 2 x @ 25.5

Bought 2 x @ 26.5

Loss - 62.5

Sell 2 x @ 27.5

Bought 1 x @ 25.0

Bought 1 x @ 24.5

 

[darkhorse70]

Before any figures came out last night I ended up averaging down a long position in the notes. Thought oil would sell off and possible the equities. Again, went totally offside. My goal was for a small reversion.

Ended up holding the position overnight and getting the trade onside after that huge equity sell off. I think I made 4 points with 5 lots but still not impressed.

I need to manage my lots better and learn when to cut losses.

 

[darkhorse70]

I need to wait for wider moves before I average down. Or else Im taking more exposure and damage and less probability of getting a trade onside. I also might start the trade with 1 lots unless Im really confident... That was my losses dont get big really quickly forcing my to emotionally average down even quicker.

Short 1 x @ 26.5

 

[Trembling Hand]

That was my losses dont get big really quickly forcing my to emotionally average down even quicker.

Would like to see your MAE stats compared to your average win. If you are always having to avg down rather than trades going your way pretty much as soon as you enter I would be having a good hard look at what you are doing with your trade ideas and execution of those ideas.

 

[darkhorse70]

Fair point TH. I'm frustrated because for the last 2 weeks, my trades have been pretty awful. Obviously I havent traded this strategy long enough for any real stats but Im putting my equity volatility curve down to the fact that markets are quite volatile atm. Atleast in the sense that theyre at an important level and markets are unsure of which way they want to go.

Im just having to make a hypothesis about the direction or the more likely hood of a move happening one way over the other, getting into a position and waiting for that move to unfold.

To me, manipulation is one of the most critical things of trading. You might be correct, but the markets are temporarily manipulated, you get out and youre done for.

I have no stats to show you. In terms of MAE, most of my trades do go my way, but its when I have to really average down on those one or two trades a week that puts me into serious trouble.

Its like what you said, one bad day in the bonds market can ruin your week. Need to manage them better. Hence why, Im going to experiment with cutting down to 1 lot and averaging down slower and smaller.

 

[Trembling Hand]

To me, manipulation is one of the most critical things of trading. You might be correct, but the markets are temporarily manipulated, you get out and youre done for.

Trouble with that besides it working 19 times out of 20 and the 20th time you blow out your account. You will find it hard getting backing by using other peps money if you have to have a daily stop of $2000 to make avg $400 a day winner.

I have no stats to show you. In terms of MAE, most of my trades do go my way, but its when I have to really average down on those one or two trades a week that puts me into serious trouble.

Are you using Multicharts? I think you add some how a "Performance Report" to a chart to see ya stats,

http://www.multicharts.com/trading-software/index.php/Using_Performance_Report