CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Miner]

Good morning all
CVN published two reports this morning.
Cash Flow and Quarterly report
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190710/pdf/446hzz5c5x95y3.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190710/pdf/446j0166szph2t.pdf
Many a times I wonder to understand transparencies or more accurately alignment between MD /CEO reports published for the share holders and employees .
The reports for shareholders are always encouraging, rosy, and pleasing for the CEO/MD. So essentially shareholders kept invested and the CEO gets his or her bonus on upper range.
The same person, when publishes performance report to the employees, put a pessimistic assessment for the previous year narrating why the employees and contractors (where they are eligible) would not get full quota of bonus due to several milestones not met.
Double standards for sure

 

[peter2]

Thanks for the update. I was unaware of today's reports as I bought a parcel with a very tight iSL. I think the recent 20% drop was a tad oversold and if others agree, price may drift higher as we await further drilling news. I'm trading that price will get back to 0.55 which was the average price after the Dorado-2 news. I've got a R:R of approx 1.5.

 

[barney]

I think the recent 20% drop was a tad oversold.

Agree …… there were a lot of "vultures" circling on that spike low picking up the discarded shares cheap.
Relatively low Volume compared to a couple of days ago but still close to $4 million traded today at this stage. Looks OK

 

[rnr]

Hi @tech/a,
Just wondering if the the recent news/report coupled with the subsequent price action resembles a "shake-out" by any chance?
Cheers,
Rob

 

[tech/a]

Hi Rob

My take.

 

[barney]

Musings:-

The 1 minute chart on the 8th July indicates participants in the sell off were quickly swallowed by bigger fish.

5 minute chart of last few days seems to be confirming that at this stage … ie. Price above the 48 cent level.

 

[tech/a]

Find it hard to analyse lower timeframe charts that are so thin
How’s an hourly pan out?

 

[rnr]

Hi @tech/a,

Thanks for your response.
In hindsight, my question to you was poorly worded and should go more along the line as follows:-
Given the last three bars (as circled on my chart), would you regard the price/volume action as a precursor to a potential shake-out in VSA terms.

Cheers,
Rob

 

[tech/a]

Rob could be
Could also be a lot of other things.

 

[rnr]

Rob could be
Could also be a lot of other things.

Thanks tech/a.

 

[barney]

Find it hard to analyse lower timeframe charts that are so thin How’s an hourly pan out?

Actually the hourly is not too much different than the minute Tech. The majority of the Volume was in the first hour, but the majority of the first hour was in the first 2-3 minutes.

The 45-47 cent level seems the acceptable range …. under 45 not good … above 48 positive

 

[Miner]

Good morning all
CVN published this
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446pw6jnphkgg9.pdf
Interestingly STO has published more interesting and encouraging on Dorado Well and their expectation
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446psnm0dghmvz.pdf
with STO's +$300 M cash flow, can I be ambitiously (or ridiculously) speculative that STO may have a take over of CVN ? My dream thoughts and could be less probable than me wining $110 M lotto today
I hold both CVN and STO so either way I would be happy with status quo and living in dream

 

[barney]

can I be ambitiously (or ridiculously) speculative that STO may have a take over of CVN ?

That would be a nice surprise for you holders Miner

Latest price action so far today looks more positive.

Recent days down moves have generated some Volume … If it proves to be distressed sellers/smart buyers accumulating, todays low volume reversal might grow some legs .. like to see it get above that 45 cent resistance area

 

[Trav.]

Trading halt today, SP makes sense now

 

[Miner]

Trading halt today, SP makes sense now

View attachment 96343

View attachment 96344

Hope the SPP price and ex right share price will make sense.

 

[peter2]

WTH: They raised $50mill in Feb19 to fund appraisal and to commercialise the Dorado discovery.

Now they want to raise another $79 mill to fund ongoing appraisal activities of the Dorado discovery and the initial stages of commercialisation.

Where did the first $50mill go?

 

[peter2]

Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.

 

[barney]

Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.

Possibly … and if so … pretty annoying for the average punter

 

[Miner]

WTH: They raised $50mill in Feb19 to fund appraisal and to commercialise the Dorado discovery.

Now they want to raise another $79 mill to fund ongoing appraisal activities of the Dorado discovery and the initial stages of commercialisation.

Where did the first $50mill go?

Good point @peter2 . I was just now reading their presentation. One thing I liked about zero debt.
They however suspected general investors may not like the share price. So $5 M has deliberately been kept open. If it does not get fill up then would be offered to Insto I suppose
ONe more thing, with the volume of shares already in the market, $15K per share holder would not be feasible for $5M allotment. That also gives them to enjoy some excess floating cash until the allotment is over. I liked CVN and off late - the trend is not giving me warm and fuzzy feel. I am just positive on the holding but once market opens on Thursday, I doubt my positiveness will upbeat

 

[Miner]

Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.

CR for FEED.
Then another CR for construction and procurement activities . Looks like SBM story unless a discovery comes out on the way.