CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[barney]

- the trend is not giving me warm and fuzzy feel.

CR's can be frustrating at times but keeping my positive hat on for your sake Miner …..

Last time they raised at 33 cents …. and the SP immediately rose substantially.

If we took the May price spike off the chart and they said they were raising at 39 cents, it would look like a reasonable arrangement … 6 cents higher than last raise and well supported.

The May price spike and subsequent selloff looks a little fabricated in hindsight so that is an obvious negative, however …

The big Honchos supporting the current 39 cent raise will obviously want to see the SP moving higher. If it behaves like it did last raise it should be back at 50 cents in no time … I hope that is the case.

Now they have the mid term cash sorted they can get on with drilling up bucket loads of oil

 

[Miner]

CR's can be frustrating at times but keeping my positive hat on for your sake Miner …..

Last time they raised at 33 cents …. and the SP immediately rose substantially.

If we took the May price spike off the chart and they said they were raising at 39 cents, it would look like a reasonable arrangement … 6 cents higher than last raise and well supported.

The May price spike and subsequent selloff looks a little fabricated in hindsight so that is an obvious negative, however …

The big Honchos supporting the current 39 cent raise will obviously want to see the SP moving higher. If it behaves like it did last raise it should be back at 50 cents in no time … I hope that is the case.

Now they have the mid term cash sorted they can get on with drilling up bucket loads of oil

@barney the positive Singer.
Thks. Cvn getting into 39 cents after it announced insto acceptance of $79 m.
It's a good stock. I am optimistic

 

[barney]

@barney the positive Singer.
Thks. Cvn getting into 39 cents after it announced insto acceptance of $79 m.
It's a good stock. I am optimistic

Yeah it could take a little while for the market to digest and regurgitate all the pros and cons of such a large cap raise … but on the positive side, they have no trouble getting wealthy people to give them lots of cash

 

[Miner]

Drilling result published toda
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190812/pdf/447dhbz0zycnph.pdfy
I read it and could not understand why CVN is pleased to say 'no hydrocarbon would be seen from this drilling statement'. Would the market be pleased too ?? We would know when the trading commences I suppose.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

Drill UPDATE - not a result.
They have further to go before they expect hydrocarbons.
Interestingly, the SP is now below the value that the purchase plan advised. So you can buy at a further discount!

 

[Miner]

Drill UPDATE - not a result.
They have further to go before they expect hydrocarbons.
Interestingly, the SP is now below the value that the purchase plan advised. So you can buy at a further discount!

I wished to have paid more attention to your posting
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190902/pdf/4484mdhypj304l.pdf

 

[BlindSquirrel]

The current trading halt is regarding the Dorado 3 well results. I've got everything crossed for a continuation of good news from Dorado (phoenix south ones haven't been too flash but Dorado's been good so far - NO JINX!)

 

[Miner]

The trading halt will be removed today in next few minutes as the announcement is very positive

 

[BlindSquirrel]

Flow testing still to come!

 

[Trav.]

Some good news today for CVN shareholders.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=

 

[Miner]

Some good news today for CVN shareholders.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=

View attachment 97499

I hope market to respond it as a great news.
Specially trading at a price Lowe than recent CR price.

 

[barney]

I hope market to respond it as a great news.
Specially trading at a price Lowe than recent CR price.

15,000+ boe per day ….. Its gushing money

 

[BlindSquirrel]

 

[martaart077]

Santos announcement today regarding Baxter flow test seemed really positive.... Better than expected flow test result.
Yet CVN share price with their 20%ownership ended in the red today.
Was reading that shorters are at play but is that what is really going on with this share?

 

[Trav.]

@martaart077 I believe that the STO announcement was the same as CVN's on the 19/9 so the price was already factored in.

this link shows shorts https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cvn which has a 4 day lag.

But I do not know the driver (capping of price etc) for this type of trading when we are expecting more positive announcements, so I suppose it is just the big boys manipulating the market

 

[barney]

Was reading that shorters are at play but is that what is really going on with this share?

Shorters listed on ASX as of last Friday looks fairly innocuous (0.49%)

A lot of shares traded at the close last Friday at 41.5 cents so its anyone's guess which way it will go in the short term but 40 cents needs to hold as support.

ps posted at the same time Trav ….. There is some variation at 2.65% so maybe the Volume on Friday was short covering?

 

[martaart077]

Santos report to me seemed to contain some really positive language regarding the potential of this field.... From the report.
Santos Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher said: “The flow rate in the Baxter confirms our interpretation of a high quality reservoir with excellent productivity and condensate-rich gas with low levels of impurities.” “This result further increases our confidence in our ability to commercialise the significant condensate resources in the Dorado field.” “We look forward to the results from the planned test of the Caley oil reservoir, which should close out the Dorado appraisal program and allow us to work towards a Final Investment Decision on the project, which is now one of the most exciting growth projects across the Santos portfolio.”

Suppose share price also reflects the difference between "potential" and "certainty".

 

[barney]

Not really keeping up with this but a quick read says Santos will plug and abandon the Dorado well after assessment as planned …… So the time line to possibly produce from the various reservoirs in the field is basically up to (if and when) Santos decide to continue?? ….. Even though the results look excellent, it keeps CVN kind of in a bind …. The difference in the STO and CVN SP's seems to reflect that. CVN looks well positioned for the future but nothing happens fast in the Oil business (discounting takeovers)

 

[BlindSquirrel]

*anticipation intensifies*

 

[barney]

*anticipation intensifies*

No doubt it will be the final results etc re the Caley reservoir (nothing yet from Santos.)

Hopefully for you chaps holding it will be a big announcement price wise, but given CVN are the minority player, Santos will need to make an announcement stating their intention to financially develop the field before CVN gets to full speed.

Not sure about the relationship between STO and CVN …. but given the current info on the prospectively of the Dorado field (which is huge), CVN would have to be a future takeover proposition??

On the flip side, assuming that is the case, Santos will want CVN at the best price they can "organise"

Potentially lots of water to flow under this bridge you'd think. (Thinking out loud, accumulating CVN on any dips assuming the POO remains ok could turn out to be a good punt)