AEL - Amplitude Energy
- Thread starter yogi-in-oz
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Maybe COE wants to have a small holding now and make a full T/O later on the price/script offer does not match up to what's on offer
cheers laurie
It is a lot of effort and expense to go through though if they do not think it will succceed. If it does work out they should have easier access to funding anyway.
Another junior producer/explorer caught my eye. COE has a market value of ~$120m @ 43c:
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+~$90m in cash = 31c/share
+produced 140,000 barrels last quarter, and is on track to keep the production rate steady, which will generate 500,000 barrels of oil this yr or AUD$35m in revenue (oil @ USD$50/barrel, AUD:USD @80c). Even if we take the production cost @ $20/barrel, which is at the high end of the scale, the net profit be4 tax is roughly around AUD$15m.
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Cash + 1 yr's production gives the company a fair value of $105m. At the current market cap, COE's assets are worth $15m. ridiculous for a company that has producing assets with no debt and no hedging!! And dont forget it's exploration assets, i think i read somewhere the exploration success rate to date is about 60%!!
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+~$90m in cash = 31c/share
+produced 140,000 barrels last quarter, and is on track to keep the production rate steady, which will generate 500,000 barrels of oil this yr or AUD$35m in revenue (oil @ USD$50/barrel, AUD:USD @80c). Even if we take the production cost @ $20/barrel, which is at the high end of the scale, the net profit be4 tax is roughly around AUD$15m.
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Cash + 1 yr's production gives the company a fair value of $105m. At the current market cap, COE's assets are worth $15m. ridiculous for a company that has producing assets with no debt and no hedging!! And dont forget it's exploration assets, i think i read somewhere the exploration success rate to date is about 60%!!
Kuri
Some research indicates they are producing at about 500K barrels per annum with reserves stated at
1.4M proven as June 2008 (assume 100% owned)
2.1M proven from Butlers and Perlubie (25% owned ?)
4.5M proven from Worrior (30% owned)
All info flaky as they are not good at keeping the market informed and their website is way out of date. It looks as if they have about 3M proven at medium estimate = 6 years at current production rate. They have recently been able to discover and prove reserves faster than production rate
Cutsnake -- yes I have a few shares
Some research indicates they are producing at about 500K barrels per annum with reserves stated at
1.4M proven as June 2008 (assume 100% owned)
2.1M proven from Butlers and Perlubie (25% owned ?)
4.5M proven from Worrior (30% owned)
All info flaky as they are not good at keeping the market informed and their website is way out of date. It looks as if they have about 3M proven at medium estimate = 6 years at current production rate. They have recently been able to discover and prove reserves faster than production rate
Cutsnake -- yes I have a few shares
good news out today funny how share price spikes
3-4 hours before the announcement.hmmm
View attachment 31m0n33r904s0s.pdf
3-4 hours before the announcement.hmmm
View attachment 31m0n33r904s0s.pdf
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COE held up very well with today's broad sell off - in fact up nearly 1%
Being close to a 2 year high should mean that we have very few stressed holders waiting to sell.
We have had close to month of consolidation so I am hoping a little good news should give us another leg up.
The only immediate threat I can see is if the profit takers get nervous or bored.
Being close to a 2 year high should mean that we have very few stressed holders waiting to sell.
We have had close to month of consolidation so I am hoping a little good news should give us another leg up.
The only immediate threat I can see is if the profit takers get nervous or bored.
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Looks like COE is now a BESBS prospect in the wings.
The JV announcement with jacka yesterday is a positive outcome and importantly, a date of November was mentioned regarding drilling in Tunisia.
I'm not in as I have money elsewhere but it looks a good punt, especially starting from a SP around 40c (within 15% of annual low). I'd be hoping for a 40-70% return (especially if production increases are announced from the flooded Cooper region) based upon past pre-spud runs and allowing for the psychological profile of punters in the current market.
Good luck to all holders. Enjoy the ride...hopefully I am underestimating the possible returns here...
The JV announcement with jacka yesterday is a positive outcome and importantly, a date of November was mentioned regarding drilling in Tunisia.
I'm not in as I have money elsewhere but it looks a good punt, especially starting from a SP around 40c (within 15% of annual low). I'd be hoping for a 40-70% return (especially if production increases are announced from the flooded Cooper region) based upon past pre-spud runs and allowing for the psychological profile of punters in the current market.
Good luck to all holders. Enjoy the ride...hopefully I am underestimating the possible returns here...
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Well, well, well...
Announcement out regarding Poland and Russia.
Now we read that COOPER Energy has mapped 12 prospects and leads containing 52 million barrels of prospective resources across its onshore Otway Basin permit in South Australia...
Drilling in Tunisia hoping to occur by late November...
Me thinks this punt is already starting its pre-spud run. Looks like management will drip feed the good news stories
Disc: NOT HOLDING (as I have funds elsewhere but can see this being an easy 50% gain for someone as a BESBS - Buy Early Sell Before Spud - tip)
Tipped at 39.5c. Now 45c as I write.
Announcement out regarding Poland and Russia.
Now we read that COOPER Energy has mapped 12 prospects and leads containing 52 million barrels of prospective resources across its onshore Otway Basin permit in South Australia...
Drilling in Tunisia hoping to occur by late November...
Me thinks this punt is already starting its pre-spud run. Looks like management will drip feed the good news stories
Disc: NOT HOLDING (as I have funds elsewhere but can see this being an easy 50% gain for someone as a BESBS - Buy Early Sell Before Spud - tip)
Tipped at 39.5c. Now 45c as I write.
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Decided to buy in recently. Missed the first quick rise (although I predicted it) but still see plenty of BESBS potential here. Tunisia drilling is the key SP trigger with exploration and production predicted in the Cooper Basin once the flooding settles etc.
Tipped at 39.5c; hold COE at 44.5c.
Tipped at 39.5c; hold COE at 44.5c.
I have just bought into COE today at 45.5 cents. I have been watching it for the last few days and finally decided to get in, Are you still happy to hold for the spud? Because you have more experiance with pre-spud leadups what do you estimate it will rise by?
Thanks! (i've read most of you posts BESBS Player - wealth of knowledge, did you work in this industry?)
Thanks! (i've read most of you posts BESBS Player - wealth of knowledge, did you work in this industry?)
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G'day Smashie.
Absolutely happy to hold.
Timing wise, I am hoping that I can off-load COE before Christmas. Nevertheless, you have to remember that drillings can be delayed slightly so I'm expecting Christmas as a timing.
I am planning to sell halfway into the Tunisia drill. This should allow punters to all be on-board and also wait just incase an early announcement of hydrocarbons/gas/oil etc are announced. This explains my Christmas time-line.
In the meantime, I'd be hoping for an announcement stating that production is increasing (as flood problems disappear) and possibly the resumption of exploration in the Cooper Basin. This would help lift the SP. Also, the Christmas spirit doesn't hurt as pre-Dec.25, punters are usually a little happier and risk accepting.
Predicting a SP - difficult. I base my expectations on the psychology of punters when faced with the target and general market conditions. I'm hoping for something in the 60c range but this could get a little higher (given past SP when drilling in Indonesia). It will depend a little on the other factors mentioned above.
Hope that this is helpful.
PS. Don't work in industry. Have a M.Env Sci and Business background. Developed my own take on the BESBS model a decade or so ago.
Absolutely happy to hold.
Timing wise, I am hoping that I can off-load COE before Christmas. Nevertheless, you have to remember that drillings can be delayed slightly so I'm expecting Christmas as a timing.
I am planning to sell halfway into the Tunisia drill. This should allow punters to all be on-board and also wait just incase an early announcement of hydrocarbons/gas/oil etc are announced. This explains my Christmas time-line.
In the meantime, I'd be hoping for an announcement stating that production is increasing (as flood problems disappear) and possibly the resumption of exploration in the Cooper Basin. This would help lift the SP. Also, the Christmas spirit doesn't hurt as pre-Dec.25, punters are usually a little happier and risk accepting.
Predicting a SP - difficult. I base my expectations on the psychology of punters when faced with the target and general market conditions. I'm hoping for something in the 60c range but this could get a little higher (given past SP when drilling in Indonesia). It will depend a little on the other factors mentioned above.
Hope that this is helpful.
PS. Don't work in industry. Have a M.Env Sci and Business background. Developed my own take on the BESBS model a decade or so ago.
I'm quite new to the whole share game, but the thing I like about BESBS method is that like you said it is base on the psychology of people. I believe technical analysis is a joke because you cannot use the past to predict the future, although unless enough people fall victim to this method - one will see the trends coming up. This is why i completely support and am interested in the BESBS method. I have a lot to learn about the oil and gas sector and if you have any recomendations of good books (especially BESBS) I would be really greatful.
Assuming oil/gas reserve is at 3000ft how long would it take to drill an exploratory well? I understand the material drilled through would make it vary alot but in general is it > 1 month from spud? Wouldn't mind reading your take on the BESBS method if you published it anywhere...
Cheers - very helpfull analysis of COE. (holding SEY too and looking into SIR)
Assuming oil/gas reserve is at 3000ft how long would it take to drill an exploratory well? I understand the material drilled through would make it vary alot but in general is it > 1 month from spud? Wouldn't mind reading your take on the BESBS method if you published it anywhere...
Cheers - very helpfull analysis of COE. (holding SEY too
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G'day Smashie.
Truthfully, I have never read a book on the BESBS method. I just started and learned early on by trial and error over the years.
I had heard about the BESBS method but then started to observe (often by not making money!) about the factors that I think influenced the SP outside of the traditional factors that I was told - cash, is the rig booked, size of potential target etc.) Given I think 'greed/want to get rich asap' (expressed as an emotion) is a key trigger to get the SP lifting, then it seemed to me that other emotion triggers were also impacting on the final BESBS result.
As an educational tool, John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly has a section on BESBS possibilities. It does provide a smattering (there are a lot that John doesn't cover due to time restraints and his choice) but doesn't focus on the psychology side of things. Still, It is a useful list to start with. And yes, I am not John nor a friend/relative trying to push his good newsletter.
One issue is that so many in this game want to assume that valuations can be made largely as a scientific process. To me, while this is one important ingredient, human emotions are much harder to put into a scientific or mathematical formula. This is why I use a basic BESBS model but then try to place a 'psychological' framework over the traditional valuations.
PS. Remember SIR is a LONGER term BESBS. It could take months so I'd wait and see if you can get entry below 1c...I'll be watching to accumulate on weakness but would not chase this unless new announcements are made.
All the best.
BESBS
Truthfully, I have never read a book on the BESBS method. I just started and learned early on by trial and error over the years.
I had heard about the BESBS method but then started to observe (often by not making money!) about the factors that I think influenced the SP outside of the traditional factors that I was told - cash, is the rig booked, size of potential target etc.) Given I think 'greed/want to get rich asap' (expressed as an emotion) is a key trigger to get the SP lifting, then it seemed to me that other emotion triggers were also impacting on the final BESBS result.
As an educational tool, John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly has a section on BESBS possibilities. It does provide a smattering (there are a lot that John doesn't cover due to time restraints and his choice) but doesn't focus on the psychology side of things. Still, It is a useful list to start with. And yes, I am not John nor a friend/relative trying to push his good newsletter.
One issue is that so many in this game want to assume that valuations can be made largely as a scientific process. To me, while this is one important ingredient, human emotions are much harder to put into a scientific or mathematical formula. This is why I use a basic BESBS model but then try to place a 'psychological' framework over the traditional valuations.
PS. Remember SIR is a LONGER term BESBS. It could take months so I'd wait and see if you can get entry below 1c...I'll be watching to accumulate on weakness but would not chase this unless new announcements are made.
All the best.
BESBS
I just had a look at his newsletter examples on www.oilers.com.au, looks like a very good place to get your feet wet in this sector, thanks for the heads up.
I agree with you on the psychological front I'm a biomedical engineer, so I'm a numbers man so I should be a techy, but it just doesn't feel right.
I first got into stocks because of a company I was working for CathRx. For about 3 months I watched the share price rise with announcements then drop off shortly after. I made a small fortune when I started to realised that most of the announcements were just hype, and that I could buy before wait sell then rinse repeat. This is why I agree with your psychological POV, nice to find someone else that is whistling my tune.
Cheers
I agree with you on the psychological front I'm a biomedical engineer, so I'm a numbers man so I should be a techy, but it just doesn't feel right.
I first got into stocks because of a company I was working for CathRx. For about 3 months I watched the share price rise with announcements then drop off shortly after. I made a small fortune when I started to realised that most of the announcements were just hype, and that I could buy before wait sell then rinse repeat. This is why I agree with your psychological POV, nice to find someone else that is whistling my tune.
Cheers
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Report out on the ASX today.
Looks like the Menzel-Horr is all set to go in Tunisia in December. Hoping that we will start to see some BESBS $$ moving into COE over the next 3 weeks.
Tipped at 39.5c; hold COE at 44.5c.
Looks like the Menzel-Horr is all set to go in Tunisia in December. Hoping that we will start to see some BESBS $$ moving into COE over the next 3 weeks.
Tipped at 39.5c; hold COE at 44.5c.
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Bit of a sleeper at present.
Today's report mentioned December 2010 as the spud date for Tunisia.
This one could creep up on investors quickly...
Tipped at 39.5c; now hold COE at 43.5c.
Today's report mentioned December 2010 as the spud date for Tunisia.
This one could creep up on investors quickly...
Tipped at 39.5c; now hold COE at 43.5c.
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G'day all,
An interesting article out today. (Thanks to V1 for letting me know).
Top picks – Oil & Gas
Cooper Energy (COE): With $0.32/share in cash and the cornerstone producing Cooper Basin valued at $0.20/share, the conventional upstream oil and gas producer trades at a 55 per cent discount to Simpson's $0.67 target price. Included within Cooper's busy 2010/2011 drilling program are wells in Tunisia, the Cooper Basin - plus new ventures in Romania and Poland. If successful, Simpson says the onshore Menzel Horr wells in Tunisia Rig, due for drilling in November, could add a 70 cents upside to the current price.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/15523...-portfolio.html
An interesting article out today. (Thanks to V1 for letting me know).
Top picks – Oil & Gas
Cooper Energy (COE): With $0.32/share in cash and the cornerstone producing Cooper Basin valued at $0.20/share, the conventional upstream oil and gas producer trades at a 55 per cent discount to Simpson's $0.67 target price. Included within Cooper's busy 2010/2011 drilling program are wells in Tunisia, the Cooper Basin - plus new ventures in Romania and Poland. If successful, Simpson says the onshore Menzel Horr wells in Tunisia Rig, due for drilling in November, could add a 70 cents upside to the current price.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/15523...-portfolio.html
