CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[JTLP]

So yesterday CVN were advised to halt delivery of their crude to the Bangkok refinery on security concerns. These concerns have been eased but as there is a curfew in place they can only deliver between certain times (better then no delivery at all).

An update also came out today with some good news regarding their oil fields...especially Bo Rang B. More oil is always a good thing...keep it up CVN. Also managed to finish in the green after opening at 30 cents!

Here is the operations update:
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100521/pdf/31qfzmrjk864qg.pdf

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

You guys are missing are fundamental trend in the data.....

**Based on this trend history only**...$0.37-ish seems critical in terms of trend_resistance.

I enclose my take on CVN.

As it happened my prediction of a descending triangle on the weeklies breaking to the short side came true.

I now see the next level of support, not at 0.37 but at 0.24.

Enclosed is an up to date weekly with the next major decision by punters to be made at 0.24, a previous resistance and support level.

gg

.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

That's a bit scary GG. However, it does seem like a fair assesment of the graph. The fundamentals of increasing production should see this hold above that level. I'll be looking for sideways movement and a new base of support before making any predictions of a recovery in price, also the political situation may have to stabilise before some buyers return.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Its .32 tonight.

I'll be getting gumnuts ready for the trading range about .24

It is a very interesting company the ole CVN.

gg

 

[zerolimit]

ive been increasing my holding as the SP goes down, i just don't see any good reasons for it, the political situation is stabalising and really didn't affect the operations anyway.

If it does break the .30 mark and head down i will be increasing my holding.. escpecially if it hits 0.24

 

[eddyeagle]

This thread has been a little quiet recently...

CVN hit a low of 30c a month ago and has since rallied to close at 37.5 c yesterday... Could this be the start of something or do you think we are still looking at mid 20s?

 

[spudda]

I think the Price has bottomed out now and should see growth as economies around the world recover (may still be a year away) but I would expect share pice to grow along with the recovery of world markets... After all the stock did take a big hit in the recent falls and concerns about the stablity of Thailand...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This thread has been a little quiet recently...

CVN hit a low of 30c a month ago and has since rallied to close at 37.5 c yesterday... Could this be the start of something or do you think we are still looking at mid 20s?

There is quite an interesting sideways movement in CVN at the moment and a close watch on open, high, low, close and volume, may pay dividends for those who can catch a recovery. It may continue down though, at least one can study it now with some chance of a move to the long side.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=au%3Acvn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=137552&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=5282&mocktick=1&rand=9278


gg

 

[subasurf]

I'm sitting on an 11 percent profit on CVN right now. Considering taking my profit, but there seams to be a bit of support at around 32 cents which would hopefully protect me from a big loss as my buy in was 33 cents.

Can't decide if I should wait and see if it breaks and creeps closer to my target of 50 cents. With my AUT stocks doing sweet FA, I'm awfully tempted to lock in some profit.

 

[pixel]

well, CVN did rally yesterday - but I hope you know the effect of a dark cloud cover.
While today's candle may not qualify 100% - DCC is considered most accurate when it closes in the lower half of the prvious day's body - I'd rather wait for an opportunity to buy at 34c, possibly even less?

 

[UMike]

Over 40c at the moment.

Hope it doesn't retest that 34c mark.

Quite a few anns from Thailand and NZ.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

CVN is travelling well, lets hope the ole King of Thailand doesn't get a cold, I have one at the moment, or that they don't start arguing over what colour shirt to wear in Thailand.

Sovereign risk is my main concern with this mob.

I'm loaded up again with them.

gg

 

[pixel]

Yes, sovereign risk is a worry.
Not so much the possibility of a dip back to 34c - to me anyway.
While I was too cautious - although I did say it's not a 100% card-carrying DCC - I feel much better being out trying to buy back in, than I would feel had I bought at 38 and the DCC had driven it back to 34 or lower.
Some people (especially "over there") are happy to average down even when they're already 30% under water. They either have money to burn, nerves of steel, or no real idea of capital preservation. 'nuff said

But all of you that hold: I sincerely wish you Good luck, and may you make a mint when it's time to sell!

 

[JTLP]

This Ann will make a lot of people happy:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-rel...ests-at-5300-BOPD-TSX-VENTURE-POE-1314402.htm

Highest onshore flow rates ever recorded in Thailand.

CVN should get a nice kick tomorrow.

 

[subasurf]

Good news for me
I was awfully disappointed in not dumping this stock when it broke the 40 cent mark. Glad I held onto it now

 

[eddyeagle]

Nice little 8% jump today to close at 47 cents. Broken through the 200 day moving average too which is a good sign. Things could be picking up...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've sent some lemons to the ole King o' Thailand to keep him fit.
This more than anything will determine CVN's future.
Sovereign risk is the only problem.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Its off again, lets hang on for the run up to 50c., the 62c.

The ole king got the lemons.

A chart

gg

 

[joea]

Hi.
CVN has achieved a 94% increase in net oil in Thialand with just 3 wells.
This adds 3,564 bopd. Two other well are shut in with 1,388 bopd.

 

[eddyeagle]

CVN creeping up slowly - bit by bit - closed at 52 cents today... Volume increasing too. Doesnt seem to be much resistance between here and 62 cents so let the good times roll!