CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Trader Paul]

Posted 25 01 2010:

Hi folks,

CVN ... astrostuff has us figuring on March 2010, as being a huge month,
as several positive time cycles come into play:

24022010 ... positive cycle ... finance-related ... ???

05-08032010 ... a positive spotlight on CVN

10032010 ... positive news expected, triggered by lunar aspect.

15032010 ... minor cycle here

22-26032010 ... a very significant and positive time cycle,
with more news expected 25-26032010 ...

have a great day

paul



=====

Hi folks,

CVN ... as per post above, in late January 2010, CVN has a
couple of positive time cycles coming together this week and
we may get some good news, around 24-26032010 .....

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[JTLP]

Haha Paul I hope you get this one right mate! I just flicked through your predictions then from Feb onwards and they were all the opposite!

Moved up 2 cents on Friday to close at .50. No report from POE overnight so i'm guessing these hands will hold on a little longer for the reserves or bail on tuesday if there is still nothing.

Here's hoping the reserves update is half decent.

 

[JTLP]

Haha Paul I hope you get this one right mate! I just flicked through your predictions then from Feb onwards and they were all the opposite!

Moved up 2 cents on Friday to close at .50. No report from POE overnight so i'm guessing these hands will hold on a little longer for the reserves or bail on tuesday if there is still nothing.

Here's hoping the reserves update is half decent.

Please find attached a chart for CVN...As you can see from August '09 to today she has gradually been drifting lower...needs something positive to break this downtrend.

I predicted Monday right for CVN but on the Tuesday she actually came back to close at .495. Bit of a bailout today to close at .480...my suspicions...people wanting the POE ann last night (usually they release on tuesday nights for AUS) and nothing come through.

Ahh well life goes on for CVN...let's hope for oil in that ground and increased production...

 

[growing]

Astro trading ??? Hahah no wonder reality was the opposite to predictions. I looked up at the stars and the moon and decided the time was right for me to meet Dr Who and travel through Time and Space in the TARDIS but alas my prediction didn't come true

As for Reality and CVN OMG it is sitting at 46 cents!!!!!! Can anyone predict a bottom for this one ??

Even with the reserve upgrades I'm unsure what impact it will have -- maybe it will get pushed back to the 50 cent level but their huge drop in profits must be weighing down heavily.

 

[Miner]

Hi folks,

CVN ... as per post above, in late January 2010, CVN has a
couple of positive time cycles coming together this week and
we may get some good news, around 24-26032010 .....

have a great weekend

paul



=====

Please find attached a chart for CVN...As you can see from August '09 to today she has gradually been drifting lower...needs something positive to break this downtrend.

I predicted Monday right for CVN but on the Tuesday she actually came back to close at .495. Bit of a bailout today to close at .480...my suspicions...people wanting the POE ann last night (usually they release on tuesday nights for AUS) and nothing come through.

Ahh well life goes on for CVN...let's hope for oil in that ground and increased production...

Astro trading ??? Hahah no wonder reality was the opposite to predictions. I looked up at the stars and the moon and decided the time was right for me to meet Dr Who and travel through Time and Space in the TARDIS but alas my prediction didn't come true

As for Reality and CVN OMG it is sitting at 46 cents!!!!!! Can anyone predict a bottom for this one ??

Even with the reserve upgrades I'm unsure what impact it will have -- maybe it will get pushed back to the 50 cent level but their huge drop in profits must be weighing down heavily.

Folks

I share your frustration.

I think it is a poor joke behind astro analysis in share marekt forum and getting a jail free card every time raises the question if there is a dark ness behind the candle stand?

Why are the moderators so blind folded with such rampings in the name of astro analysis ?

Why the self claimed astro analyst is so shameless never publishes his predictions and actualities ? How is it different from a normal ramping ?

It has been a joke to see how ASF moderators have taken an exception to such posting under a stock name. I have nothing to say if such predictions are made against general topic but definitely raising question when in spite of several concerns raised astro bluffs are allowed under a spefic stock thread.
It is just not transparent

 

[JTLP]

Miner...

I share your sentiments re: Astro Analysis...Trader Paul seems to only highlight when things go right. To me it is a blatant ramp if you don't have any physical evidence/basis? Who is to stop me from saying CVN will be $1.20 by Christmas because Santa is feeling extra generous and CVN has been nice this year...

Moderators I honestly believe all analysis can be used fairly and such...but fundamental and technical analysis has merit/value/theory. Where is the theory in saying the stars are aligned?

Trader Paul if you can provide some detail or a link on a site to see how it works then I'll more then happily take it on board as another piece in the puzzle...until then I too must question this technique.

BACK TO CVN

Slipped down to 46 cents today. She is really one sick puppy right now. Echoing my need for the Reserves update and drilling update to be something special now...On the charts the next stop will be .430/.435...if it bounces of this with volume and strength then I would consider purchasing a small amount. A break through this and it goes to its yearly low of 33 cents Increased volume today as well...all in all not a good sign.

Miner do you hold?

 

[pixel]

Miner...

I share your sentiments re: Astro Analysis...Trader Paul seems to only highlight when things go right. To me it is a blatant ramp if you don't have any physical evidence/basis? Who is to stop me from saying CVN will be $1.20 by Christmas because Santa is feeling extra generous and CVN has been nice this year...

Moderators I honestly believe all analysis can be used fairly and such...but fundamental and technical analysis has merit/value/theory. Where is the theory in saying the stars are aligned?

Trader Paul if you can provide some detail or a link on a site to see how it works then I'll more then happily take it on board as another piece in the puzzle...until then I too must question this technique.

Amazing ! I thought astrology had a place - near the back of some women's mags you find in cheap hairdressing salons and general medical waiting rooms "Madam Sandra" or "Athena Starwoman" kind of psycho's. That anybody could take such drivel serious, especially in share trading, hasn't yet occurred to me. So, thanks for enlightening me - I've learned something new

Seriously: I've known a very sincere fellow trader, who studied extremely hard to master the (astrology-inspired) Gann cycles. Every time one of his cycles seemed to fit, it was "spot on, proof these cycles do work."
As I said, he is a most sincere and likeable gentleman; that's why I gave him the benefit of the doubt and tried to fit cycles over a range of ASX shares. If there is such a thing as a natural, repeating cycle, it ought to show up at least with a recogniseable repetitive pattern - right?
Well, it should; sadly, it doesn't. No matter how small a swing we choose to identify a High or Low, there simply is no correlation between price extrema and cycles. Sure, if you go back in a chart and pick a significant Low or High, you can quite often find another High that comes about 60 or 90 or 144 days later - or 3/5ths or 5/8ths of such sacred periods, give or take a day or two. Problem is: Nobody can tell in advance, from which Low or High to start, or whether it's 3/8ths of a 144 cycle or 5/9ths of bugger-all. Analysing up to 20 years' worth of price data, I found Lows and Highs of any kind were distributed in an absolute random fashion.

That may disappoint any Gann or Astrology disciples, but I take it as proof positive that tossing a coin will be at least as accurate a predictor:
Heads = Up, Tails = Down, Edge = Sideways.

 

[JTLP]

Hooray! The Ann is out from POE. Nice reserves increase and I'm happy to be holding CVN. Still oil in the ground and lots of drilling in the future too =).

Full details of net reserves % to CVN will be annouced tomorrow but for now the POE Ann can be found at: www.panorient.ca

JTLP

 

[prgudula]

If any one missed the announcement.

9 Million Barrel Reserves Upgrade
31 March 2010

Record 2P Reserves Increase
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited (“Carnarvon”) (ASX: CVN) is
pleased to advise that its net 2P oil reserves have increased by
9.0 million barrels (before allowing for calendar year 2009
production) to 24.5 million barrels as at 31 December 2009, an
increase of 48%.

more update

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100331/pdf/31pk4w8hk6g4lj.pdf

 

[mkelpie]

Any revised forecasts of the share price? Does anyone feel the price rise after announcement was a but under whelming?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Any revised forecasts of the share price? Does anyone feel the price rise after announcement was a but under whelming?

I don't forecast, however CVN has been in a downtrend since mid 2009 and on the weeklies is now in a fair dinkum descending triangle with volumes up on down movements within the triangle, which usually ends in sadness, if you are long a stock.

Although on the one hand Paul says its going up, and on the other the ole king is heading in to flu season and the ole Thailand is unstable, then I'm not a funnymentalist or a gannist, so I'll leave predictions to you guys.

To me it looks crook for the reasons above.

I'll be in again at 20c

gg

 

[JTLP]

I don't forecast, however CVN has been in a downtrend since mid 2009 and on the weeklies is now in a fair dinkum descending triangle with volumes up on down movements within the triangle, which usually ends in sadness, if you are long a stock.

Although on the one hand Paul says its going up, and on the other the ole king is heading in to flu season and the ole Thailand is unstable, then I'm not a funnymentalist or a gannist, so I'll leave predictions to you guys.

To me it looks crook for the reasons above.

I'll be in again at 20c

gg

Oil has taken another beating and CVN will no doubt follow suit tomorrow. They did release a very reassuring investor presentation recently and true believers in CVN should have a read...very insightful and interesting. Wells, SRB Tax regime...everything is covered.

But alas...CVN is still in a downtrend and will need some positive wells results to hopefully turn the tide. Until then it's watching and waiting...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Oil has taken another beating and CVN will no doubt follow suit tomorrow. They did release a very reassuring investor presentation recently and true believers in CVN should have a read...very insightful and interesting. Wells, SRB Tax regime...everything is covered.

But alas...CVN is still in a downtrend and will need some positive wells results to hopefully turn the tide. Until then it's watching and waiting...

Should CVN drop below 44c , I would be out if I were still a holder. It is dawdling at the end of this triangle on the weeklies, as I said in my last post.

Watch for high volume and a falling price next week, stronger players getting out , if that happens.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

0.47 -0.01‎ (-2.11%‎) 20 Apr 4:10pm AEST
Open: 0.47
High: 0.47
Low: 0.46

Volume: 1,566,448
Avg Vol: N/A
Mkt Cap: 317.91M

gg

 

[JTLP]

Should CVN drop below 44c , I would be out if I were still a holder. It is dawdling at the end of this triangle on the weeklies, as I said in my last post.

Watch for high volume and a falling price next week, stronger players getting out , if that happens.

gg

Good pick GG.

CVN hit and closed on it's daily low of 42 cents today. I'm gearing up funds for a pick up in the 30's/20's god forbid. Long term this is fantastic (see latest presentation). Sentiment and technicals aren't helping this one's cause for now.

Should some positive oil flows come through I still wouldn't hold hope of a return to form any time soon...

 

[growing]

Good pick GG.

CVN hit and closed on it's daily low of 42 cents today. I'm gearing up funds for a pick up in the 30's/20's god forbid. Long term this is fantastic (see latest presentation). Sentiment and technicals aren't helping this one's cause for now.

Should some positive oil flows come through I still wouldn't hold hope of a return to form any time soon...

The Quarterly came out and seriously I am at a total loss on why this stock has no legs at the moment.

Big PROFITS and BIG reserves are not good enough for the market? What do they want to see?

I will make a prediction:

"CVN FINDS 10 TRILLION, ZILLION U.S dollars in Hidden GOLD whilst drilling for oil - The THAI Government says "Meh you guys just keep it all""

The the share price tanks down to 1cent!!

lol

 

[JTLP]

The Quarterly came out and seriously I am at a total loss on why this stock has no legs at the moment.

Big PROFITS and BIG reserves are not good enough for the market? What do they want to see?

I will make a prediction:

"CVN FINDS 10 TRILLION, ZILLION U.S dollars in Hidden GOLD whilst drilling for oil - The THAI Government says "Meh you guys just keep it all""

The the share price tanks down to 1cent!!

lol

no need to worry growing. Fundamentally CVN is sound...great profitability, great reserves, zero debt etc. Their problem is the liquidity of the stock, the sharp fall in oil prices (CVN doesn't achieve full price already for it's oil type so a drop doesn't help) and general market sentiment. I'm hanging in there though...powder is dry to get more...and Teddy bought more.

 

[eddyeagle]

CVN just keeps trending lower and lower!

30c anyone?

Will be looking to get back in at some time at the right price...

 

[pixel]

CVN just keeps trending lower and lower!

30c anyone?

Will be looking to get back in at some time at the right price...

30c sounds about right.
As has been mentioned (and verified) on several occasions, CVN likes to close old gaps, no matter how long it takes. The two current ones go down to 38c and 30c. While the former has already been closed, we're halfway down to the next one. No guarantees, you'll understand - but before I'd buy into CVN above 34c, I'd want to be pretty certain that's where it's currently supported. Au contraire, I see the famous "Horse" formation play out: the rider has held on to the mane, but slid out of the saddle and further and further back. Finally, nothing can keep him from sliding off the rear end. Getting trampled is not my idea of a successful trade

 

[lucifuge]

You guys are missing are fundamental trend in the data.....

**Based on this trend history only**...$0.37-ish seems critical in terms of trend_resistance.