CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[yusufn93]

at 0.22 today anyone think this is a good short term spec buy?

 

[Joe Blow]

at 0.22 today anyone think this is a good short term spec buy?

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[yusufn93]

Please note that we do not permit ASF members to make "buy" or "sell" recommendations on particular stocks, as this may be considered the provision of financial advice which only licensed financial advisers can legally offer.

For this reason we ask that ASF members not request "buy" or "sell" recommendations from others but simply discuss particular stocks in more general terms.

As you are new, please be sure to take a few minutes to read the ASF Posting Guidelines which details what we expect from those posting here at ASF.

Thanks and my apologies,

To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?

Is this the correct way to phrase a question?

 

[Joe Blow]

Thanks and my apologies,

To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?

Is this the correct way to phrase a question?

That's fine. I would also add, "If so, why?" to encourage others to post more detail.

There are other ways as well:

"Does anyone here feel that CVN is undervalued at its current price of 21.5c?"

or

"At its current price of 21.5c are there any ASF members who feel that CVN offers value at these levels? If so, what do you think is holding it back?"

Of course, it would be even better if you added your own thoughts.

 

[Country Lad]

Thanks and my apologies,

To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?

Not me, I don't buy shares in downtrend especially when the company is not going particularly well.

As outlined in the March 2011 quarterly report, the Company had limited success in drilling four exploration wells at Concession L44/43 during the previous quarter, which when coupled with shutting in wells to meet license requirements, resulted in lower production rates. Exploration wells were drilled at Si Thep, Na Sanun East (NSE-E4) and two new exploration areas (L44-E and L44-F) resulting in three unsuccessful wells and one well with minor oil production.
At Concession L33/43 work continued during the past month around sidetracking the L33-2 well in order to evaluate the WBV1 volcanic reservoir. This well is on test and producing at low oil rates.

The rest of the report is not exactly glowing. I'd wait till there is a demonstrated turnaround from their 6 month downtrend .

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[muddy waters]

Thanks and my apologies,

To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?

Is this the correct way to phrase a question?

Sorry I'm not professionally qualified to answer your question. However there is an article in the Australian today about AWE Limited. When reading the journalist's advice given there I could not stop from relating it to Carnarvon [although AWE may be more progressed on the production side].

Sure initial wells are possibly drying up and exploration results have not been rosey, but this company is debt free and has only recently spread its risk by reaching beyond Thailand.

It's a speculative buy, but also a small producer looking to expand in the future!

 

[pixel]

fwiw, my tuppence of opinion:
1. The sovereign risk in the region, and the unpredictable ground ("volcanic") scare "it" out of me.
2. The chart, upon which I baseall my trade decisions, suggests the Market is no longer "in love" with CVN.
Somewhere between current levels (18c) and the 2005 Low of 2c, it may find support. The chart will tell me when and where. Right now, that's not the case.

 

[JTLP]

Going on Pixels chart - and looking at CVN of late - it seems to have found some love around the 15 cent mark. I've ridden this one for quite some time (too long it would appear now ) and the lofty heights of the 80's seem a distant dream.

Brokers have slapped reports on this around the 50 cent mark...but with dwindling production and no new great finds things aren't looking too flash. I'd be tempted to pick up some when drill results start hitting some black gold but for now i'll wait it out before an average down...

 

[pixel]

Going on Pixels chart - and looking at CVN of late - it seems to have found some love around the 15 cent mark. I've ridden this one for quite some time (too long it would appear now ) and the lofty heights of the 80's seem a distant dream.

Brokers have slapped reports on this around the 50 cent mark...but with dwindling production and no new great finds things aren't looking too flash. I'd be tempted to pick up some when drill results start hitting some black gold but for now i'll wait it out before an average down...

Good luck with it;
Agreed that one aspect suggests support, but there is also the falling resistance trend that puts a lid on proceedings. That downtrend needs to be broken with gusto (i.e. with buying volume topping 10M per day) before I'd start buying. So far, I'm out and staying out.

 

[pixel]

Somewhere between current levels (18c) and the 2005 Low of 2c, it may find support. The chart will tell me when and where. Right now, that's not the case.

Well, it did find support "somewhere" thereabouts.
As of this morning, I'm back on board "somewhere", with a st profit target of 15 or 16.5c

 

[skc]

This is looking interesting. If it heads back North then another 5-6c run from 13 may be feasible.

 

[pixel]

This is looking interesting. If it heads back North then another 5-6c run from 13 may be feasible.

View attachment 46401

got my wish; took my profit; can't see much demand right now, so staying off a while.



still on the watchlist though

 

[skc]

got my wish; took my profit; can't see much demand right now, so staying off a while.

still on the watchlist though

Yeah nice trade there pixel.

Buying CVN now would be a pretty aggressive entry, but a close watch and buy when 13.5c is being broken would offer decent risk/reward.

 

[TrendGAIN]

Technically it is looking weak for me, but the volume is drying up, so maybe we will see the end of the selling. There are a few levels we should see some support ($0.105, $0.085), so depending on how the price reacts to these will give us an indication of the strength.

 

[pixel]

I got back on board today:
Small entry position based on -

• positive MACD
• Monday's bottom reversal candle
• "almost" matching Low (fell short 0.2c)
• dried-up selling volume
• steepest gradient broken late last week

My first target is 10c, which must be crossed swiftly; above that, it's 11 and 13.5c.



stop-loss 8.6c, which I may lift to break-even as soon as 10c is hit; or I may exit if 10c fails to be hit.

 

[Tannin]

^ Interesting.

I bought back in on Friday at 9.1c but for very different reasons. I have owned CVN before and earlier this year (stupidly) round-tripped from 11.5c up to 19.5c and back again. I managed to salvage a small profit, selling out at 12.5c.

I've been watching CVN since that time.

I liked the recent implied valuation of the company's Thai production assets at about 16c per share provided by the sale of a 60% share (CVN has the other 40%). If the Thai production assets alone are worth 16c, how much more should one allow for the Thai exporation prospects and the quite extensive offshore exploration area in NW Western Australia?

I also liked the idea of some new production blood - as the new Thai operator, ECO has the opportunity to revisit and rethink the approach to a field which has so far been productive but technically challenging and seen shrinking output. Most of all, I liked the way the share price dropped on news of lower production where a large part of that drop was short-term administrative stuff to do with permits. Assuming that these issues can be successfully negotiated (talks began yesterday), the lost production can easily be made up.

So at 9.1c, I decided to jump back in. So far, so good!

Is it not interesting that Pixel and I both jumped in for such very, very different reasons? Let's hope that we are both right!

 

[Tannin]

On Friday CVN rose nicely to 10c even.

The next step though is the hard one - it's a much bigger step from 10c to 10.5c than it is to sneak up from 9.9c to 10c. With buyers lined up at 10c on Friday, 10.5c didn't seem out of the question on Monday and, sure enough, CVN opened at 10.5 and hasn't traded at any other price so far today. I am not tempted to sell out yet, though even now a 9.1 > 10.5c trade would be more than acceptable.

 

[pixel]

On Friday CVN rose nicely to 10c even.

The next step though is the hard one - it's a much bigger step from 10c to 10.5c than it is to sneak up from 9.9c to 10c. With buyers lined up at 10c on Friday, 10.5c didn't seem out of the question on Monday and, sure enough, CVN opened at 10.5 and hasn't traded at any other price so far today. I am not tempted to sell out yet, though even now a 9.1 > 10.5c trade would be more than acceptable.

As 10.5 was such a struggle, and sp settled back on 10c, I decided to take profit and put my money to work elsewhere. Among others, a quick 2c Intraday snip off AMX

 

[Out Too Soon]

I've attached the latest drilling report, looks like good news at last (it's a pdf file hope I did it right

 

[pixel]

I've attached the latest drilling report, looks like good news at last (it's a pdf file hope I did it right

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01361925

They lost a drilling assembly for a start; need another 10 days to find out whether it's increasing production. I wouldn't call that "good news".
When I read a company report, I look at the first sentence: Is the company "pleased" to announce this or that? Or are they simply updating the market? If the "pleased" is missing and I happen to hold the stock, I'm heading for the "sell" order pad even before reading any further. That would definitely have been effective today - except that I haven't been Long CVN for a long time.