Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CVN - Carnarvon Energy

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JTLP said:
Hi Miner...

I take it you were referring to me and not Lachlan :)

CVN is painful because unfortunately they are at the mercy of POE (TSX listed) for announcements (but are in a prime position as they are not operators of the drills :D)...POE have a habit of putting out announcements with drill dates and expected result logs etc...but this nearly always seem to blow out of proportion (time/date wise that is).

CVN is a highly liquid stock (read: lots of traders)...who depend on an ann...doesn't come...dump stock...some hold...ann comes...not what they expected...dump stock...long termers bottom pick...

WASH RINSE AND REPEAT...

I Hold CVN :cautious:
Click to expand...

Thanks JTLP
Yes I meant you and not Lachlan (combined effect of financial stress from stock market losses, red wine and age are all happening with me;)

Sorry Lachlan for mix up

Any way, JTLP your comment was very thoughtful

I am holding (DH) CVN and hoping to hold as far as I can

Cheers
 
No worries Miner. I will leave the fundamental stuff to you guys! The only solace with today's action was the high close on high volume. The stock really now needs to close back above this small ledge.
 
Hi Miner & Co...

A little more insight into CVN and their current situation:

1. They have a lot of cash in the bank and are debt free...and also produce oil at a very low cost per barrel (around $4 - $5 USD a barrel)...meaning that if Oil does drop to $20 US a barrel...CVN will be one of only a handful of mid-cap operations to survive.

2. Doing some rough calculations last night...we cannot expect any news from CVN until at least the very end of Feb/Start of March. I would predict between March 5th and 10th. The only results we can hope for in this coming week are in relation to: NSE-D2ST1 appraisal well...which is highly unlikely as POE like to release a batch of results together...not just one well. But we shall see...

3. Volumes have been relatively low for CVN lately but the SP is continuing to fall. I'm hoping this years low of 0.23 will act as support if the SP continues to decline. I also wonder if Ted or any of his board will pick up shares at this price? Or is Ken Judge is dropping his off?

Some food for thought...
 
JTLP said:
Hi Miner & Co...

A little more insight into CVN and their current situation:

1. They have a lot of cash in the bank and are debt free...and also produce oil at a very low cost per barrel (around $4 - $5 USD a barrel)...meaning that if Oil does drop to $20 US a barrel...CVN will be one of only a handful of mid-cap operations to survive.

2. Doing some rough calculations last night...we cannot expect any news from CVN until at least the very end of Feb/Start of March. I would predict between March 5th and 10th. The only results we can hope for in this coming week are in relation to: NSE-D2ST1 appraisal well...which is highly unlikely as POE like to release a batch of results together...not just one well. But we shall see...

3. Volumes have been relatively low for CVN lately but the SP is continuing to fall. I'm hoping this years low of 0.23 will act as support if the SP continues to decline. I also wonder if Ted or any of his board will pick up shares at this price? Or is Ken Judge is dropping his off?

Some food for thought...
Click to expand...

Thanks JTLP for the update.
I was feeling a bit nervous with CVN fall for last few days including today.
Your update honestly eliminated some nervousness and I am now gearing up to buy more CVN should the price go down. Reading recommendations from InterSuisse, Bell etc and reading their own announcements I tend to belief CVN will be a growth share.


Disclaimer : I do hold CVN
 
Hi guys,

I held this but exited today at a small loss (smaller than CUE, what a dog that's been!) when stop was hit, with an eye to re-enter when the dust has settled for oil.

As mentioned by others who know better it is a quality stock, I only will put meaningful cash into debt free companies!

Ken Judge sold 2 mil (at 0.284) during late Jan according to Comsec announcements section for the company.
 
Miner

Fundamentals are still there , nothing has changed internally . POO has actually risen prior to CVN's sp drop and the exchange rate US/AU has remained fairly constant so far , external factors such as the DOW , S&P 500 etc seem to be the major negative force surrounding oil stocks (all stocks) at the moment.
In times of these sell offs it is noted the top 2 holders , National Nominees and JP Morgan are still increasing their holdings.

National Nominees 21,756,967 (29 Aug 08) now 34,428,815
JP Morgan 31,916,000 (29 Aug 08) now 41,325,170

Discl - Long term holder.
 
That report did not wow me...and seemed a bit Simon Simpleton (ala put together by a child) if you ask me.

Seemed to lack professionalism and just pointed out that they have money for growth and not survival...mmm
 
CVN another addition to the SP200 for March rebalance.

I like this one too much and bought back in at 0.27.
 
How many bopds are Carnarvon producing? Ive looked around, but because Ive come late into looking at CVN its hard to determine. Are they around 5000bopds is this number right? Also like to find out how many reserves these guys have got. Thanks for your help in advance.
 
Miner said:
Thanks JTLP for the update.
I was feeling a bit nervous with CVN fall for last few days including today.
Your update honestly eliminated some nervousness and I am now gearing up to buy more CVN should the price go down. Reading recommendations from InterSuisse, Bell etc and reading their own announcements I tend to belief CVN will be a growth share.


Disclaimer : I do hold CVN
Click to expand...

Miner,

I feel it as my duty to personally apologize to you as CVN has not released any information as per my guesstimate within the March 5th - 10th timeframe. I am starting to get a bit annoyed with POE management for their continued failure to deliver an announcement anywhere near the expected time frames. Hopefully the boys at CVN are starting to get annoyed too and are looking to sign off on some new JV's or M&A's...

Some news I believe we are expecting:

1. Current flow tests and rates from Feb 10th Ann
2. Awarding of blocks L52/50 L53/50 (from memory) with Pearl Energy...was meant to be done early this year but government change mixed this up...was still promised as early in the year though
3. I also believe a reserves upgrade is in order for end of March (possibly read that from a report or another CVN stalwart noted it...)

Anyway let's hold our heads up high as the POO has started to rise again (although Singapore's oil dropped by 7% apparently...don't CVN sell into there???...)

JTLP
 
Well knock number #3 off my list...reserves upgrade out tonight from POE. Please note that these figures do not represent CVN as they only hold a 40% interest (these figures have been calculated to represent the 60% value it presents to POE).

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=961350&k=poe

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTURE:pOE) today released its 2008 year-end Thailand reserves estimates, as evaluated by Gaffney Cline & Associates Ltd., Singapore.

Highlights:

- Net present value (discounted 10 AFTER Tax - forecast prices) of $357 million ($7.83 per Pan Orient share) attributed to its Thailand Proven + Probable reserves, an increase of 42% from $252 million in prior year.

- Proven + Probable Thailand recoverable reserves of 25.0 million barrels of oil, an increase of 47% from 17.0 million barrels in prior year.

- Proven Thailand recoverable reserves of 5.58 million barrels of oil, an increase of 45% from 3.85 million barrels in prior year, excluding production of 1.75 million barrels net to Pan Orient during 2008.

- Proven + Probable + Possible Thailand recoverable reserves assessed at 55.3 million barrels.

- Reserves do not include 3.85 million barrels of mid-case estimated contingent resources assigned to the L44-R structure.




Summary:


SUMMARY OF THAILAND CRUDE RESERVES AS OF JANUARY 1, 2009, AS PROVIDED BY
GAFFNEY CLINE & ASSOCIATES LTD.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pan Orient
Marketable Reserves (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Thailand 5,580
Probable
Thailand 19,383


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable 24,963


Possible
Thailand 30,308


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible 55,271
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------



SUMMARY OF THAILAND NET PRESENT VALUES AS OF JANUARY 1, 2009, AS PROVIDED BY
GAFFNEY CLINE & ASSOCIATES LTD. (BEFORE TAX)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Present values - $millions - BT Undiscounted 5% 10% 15%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Proved
Thailand 266 237 214 195


Probable
Thailand 835 631 489 389


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable 1,101 867 703 584

PS---------

Miner are you still with us you blessed soul?
 
Thank you all for the fundamentakist information on CVN. read fundamental anlysis, it is late, prone to s

CVN technically is a traders dream.

It is in a trading range, most stocks are in a down trend.

I have been accumulating CVN again.

One tactic is to buy at the low of the trading range and sell at the top.

I feel CVN is due for a run up.

I do not read funnymental analysis. I wouldn't know a barrel from the King of Thailand and would not comment on the latter for fear of being banged up with the sick, the bad and the mentally ill in some Thai prison.

A chart

gg
 

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Unfortunately production has dropped off somewhat refer to extract from Pan Orient website news.




Pan Orient Energy Corp.: NSE-F1 Oil Discovery

MAR 31, 2009 - 07:00 ET

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 31, 2009) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTURE:pOE)

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

THAILAND

NSE-F1 Discovery (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-F1 well is currently producing 43-47 degree API oil (versus 36 degree API NSE field oil) at approximately 60 bopd with a water cut of approximately 15%. This is a modest flow rate in comparison to the many of the wells Pan Orient has drilled, however, NSE-F1 has established commercial production approximately 1 kilometer northeast of the nearest NSE central field producer, NSE-C1, and upgrades the potential of a large fairway due east of the main NSE central field and south of the Bo Rang gas discovery.

L44-W exploration well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The L44-W high impact exploration well is located 4.7 kilometers north of the Bo Rang-1 gas discovery and is targeting multiple volcanic objectives with structural closures ranging in areal extent from 2.3 to 6 square kilometers, and a maximum potential of 13.7 square kilometers in the upside event that L44-W and Bo Rang are in communication at the main volcanic target level.

The well will be drilling ahead in to the main volcanic objective within the next 36 hours. Prior to setting intermediate casing, the top 2 meters of a secondary volcanic objective had been encountered with mud losses and oil shows observed while drilling.

A shallower (third) volcanic zone was penetrated at 363 meters TVD exhibiting high mud gas readings and oil shows. Image logs run over this interval indicated extensive fracturing.

It is anticipated L44-W will be completed within the next 7 days. Testing of multiple zones is likely to take place shortly thereafter.

NSE-G1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-G1 appraisal well was drilled to a subsurface location 385 meters north of the NSE-D3 well and is targeting the main volcanic reservoir edge at the boundary of the central and north fault compartments. Approximately 12 meters of main volcanic reservoir was encountered at 783 meters true vertical depth (TVD) with elevated mud gas readings and oil shows over the majority of this interval. Prior to logging, the decision was made to continue drilling in order to test a deeper volcanic objective on the down dip flank of a large structural closure. At 1,085 meters TVD, the top of an approximately 100 meter thick volcanic was penetrated and drilled to a depth of 1,196 meters TVD where total drilling fluid losses and strong oil shows were encountered. Testing recovered only water. Subsequent interpretation of the data provided by this well indicates a large area up dip that will be tested in a future side track from the existing well bore.

NSE-D2ST2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2ST2 sidetrack well is currently on production at a rate of approximately 143 bopd with electrical submersible pump installation (ESP) unsuccessful in boosting production due to the high gas cut in this well.

L44-R2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

L44-R2 was drilled approximately 700 meters north of the L44-R discovery. Testing of the main volcanic reservoir objective resulted in no recovery as the zone was tight. Pan Orient is currently investigating the application of fracture stimulating this reservoir as a means of upgrading the 6.4 million barrels (100%) of mid case contingent resources, as evaluated by Gaffney Cline & Associates, into reserves.

NSE-H1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-H1 well, located in the north east portion of the NSE central fault compartment, is currently on production at a rate of 630 bopd with a water cut of approximately 7% and decreasing as the well continues to clean up after extensive drilling fluid losses.

NSE-H2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-H2 well is about to set casing after encountering the main volcanic objective in the northern portion of the NSE central fault compartment, approximately 350 meters northeast of the NSE-H1 well location. Drilling fluid losses of 300 bbls/hr were encountered while drilling the target volcanic zone and oil was observed in the drilling mud. It is anticipated the well will be tested within the next 7-10 days and the rig skidded over on the pad to drill NSE-H3 with a subsurface target 704 meters southwest of the NSE-H2 subsurface target location.

Summary

Production is currently averaging approximately 9,000 bopd gross (5,400 bopd net to Pan Orient) after peaking at over 14,000 bopd gross (8,400 bopd net) at year end as a result of natural declines off of initial test rates and a number of wells now on pump after initially free flowing. Total concession production water cut is currently averaging approximately 15%.

Recent activity has been focused on the evaluation of the exploration potential of the L44 concession with the vast majority of the wells drilled in the past 3 months targeting new reserves as opposed to continued NSE field development. This drilling campaign resulted in a new field discovery at NSE-E1 with 2.843 MM gross barrels (1.7 MM barrels net) of recoverable 2P reserves (100%), the NSE-F1 discovery of currently unknown size, the recovery of 15 barrels of oil from a new volcanic zone below the proven NSE central main volcanic reservoir at NSE-E2 and the encouraging preliminary results from the L44-W high impact exploration well that is about to be testing within the next 10 to 14 days. In addition, the potential of another deeper play has been defined with the results of NSE-G1, which will be side tracked to evaluate the 100 meter thick volcanic that was encountered below the main reservoir, in a higher structural position.

Pan Orient currently has a total inventory of 17 development locations on the NSE south and central structures that we estimate will be capable of 500 bopd per well, after initial declines. We are currently building two locations to evaluate the NSE north fault compartment discovery made 2 years ago. Subsequent to the first two wells drilled on this structure, L44G-D1 and L44-G, a 3D seismic survey was acquired over the area better defining this stratigraphic and structurally complex area.

Looking ahead, our development drilling program will be more active than in the past 3 months in order to build production up to a stable plateau targeting between 12,000 to 15,000 bopd gross (7,200 to 9,000 bopd net). These targets will be reviewed in the event of any exploration drilling success.

Exploration drilling, in addition to that described earlier, will be targeting high impact prospects at Bo Rang, and Si Thep deep. The first wells in the 100% working interest concession L53/48, are planned for July 2009, subject to the timing of environmental approval of EIA applications that were made in early March.
 
The chart looks even more beautiful by the day. This one has been a great trade, perfect chart on all levels from a technical point of view. Initial breakout, retrace and good volume. Charting is such a good thing.
 

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