Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CVN - Carnarvon Energy

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wonderrman said:
The chart looks even more beautiful by the day. This one has been a great trade, perfect chart on all levels from a technical point of view. Initial breakout, retrace and good volume. Charting is such a good thing.
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I took a profit on these for the interim and are now fully out (which is a shame since CVN has been one of favourites) , as you say the chart is looking good . However I am looking at another correction to the downside , could be wrong but it is a gamble I will take for the next 2 or 3 weeks.
 

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seasprite said:
I took a profit on these for the interim and are now fully out (which is a shame since CVN has been one of favourites) , as you say the chart is looking good . However I am looking at another correction to the downside , could be wrong but it is a gamble I will take for the next 2 or 3 weeks.
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Yes any weakness on the broader market (which we should feel in the next week or two) would send her a bit lower. I've got a tight trailing stop so I should be right. wonder.
 
CVN8apri09dailyaug-apri.jpg


Some minor resistence approaching (~40c). A push above this, depending on the overall movement of the market, will see me add some more money to this one. Next level of resistence above that is 50c.
 

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CVN starting to move again. Has had a good run in the last 6 weeks. Recent volume is up on the December - March period. Hopefully it can break through the 40c barrier up towards the 50c resistance. Fat Prophets put a buy on it last week...
 
Anyone's thoughts on my chart ....

Buy in at around .36 - .365 buy in the ride the next swing up to around .42c when you exit. Approx a 17% gain.

I'm not going to actually do it...just learning:)
 

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My chart hasn't changed from the 4th April which is a few posts above. It is close to the resistence mark so hopefully it pushses through impulsively or retraces then push higher (more likely).

Of course this depends on the general market movement though. Personally I would not be entering the trade for the first time if CVN retraces. ~3800 is a big resistence area on the XJO/XAO chart and the reaction to this is going to be vey important.

Regards , wonder.
:2twocents
 
Volume has been up quite considerably over the past week and it might possibly have to do with the following factors:

- Ann re: drilling and testing for multiple wells
- Insto stepping into the limelight and picking up a few. Ted has always wanted insto support to bring down the number of shares on issue (maybe the comp should do a buyback and destroy the shares???)
- Possibly (although I did not think CVN was a leaky ship) Ted is scoping out some distressed assets from other companies?

I wonder if there would be any merit in CVN purchasing say 40% of NXS's permit and letting NXS retain operation...CVN just a funding partner. Would give CVN more oil exposure and would help to reduce NXS debt...could they be sniffing around? (most likely not but a thought).
 
im pretty sure NXS are looking for a lot more cash than what CVN have...

im very bullish on CVN though, i just hope they can purchase some distressed assets before oil price makes its inevitable move up or the credit markets defrost...

a purchase of a quality asset with big upside will be what can take them to mid-cap status rather than just languishing as a solid single asset small cap...it could also be what sinks the company, but id prefer they take the risk of an acquisition
 
mrgroundwork said:
im pretty sure NXS are looking for a lot more cash than what CVN have...

im very bullish on CVN though, i just hope they can purchase some distressed assets before oil price makes its inevitable move up or the credit markets defrost...

a purchase of a quality asset with big upside will be what can take them to mid-cap status rather than just languishing as a solid single asset small cap...it could also be what sinks the company, but id prefer they take the risk of an acquisition
Click to expand...

Mmm they don't have a single asset...read up! They are currently focused on their thai assets...but have royalty interest in another project (run by TSV i believe), assets in Carnarvon basement and some study in Indonesia. They are looking to build safely, not stupidly, so I don't agree on your big upside big risk category...i don't think that is what CVN is all about.

JV's with POE (TSX), Sun Resources (SUR:AX) and potentially Pearl Energy...things are good. Acquisition yes...big risk...no
 
Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?

Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
Looks good on paper
Any recent bad points to watch ??

Iam a bit reluctant to buy at these higher prices ? ( dead cat bounce ? )

Who's waiting for a re-trace and at what prices ?

any comments about ?

K.B
 
seems to be on a re-trace atm

Closed at .36
Thats about 10% in 2 days
oil has copped a bit of a set back though

still on the fence :2twocents
 
Wow. Turns out I should have backed my thoughts and gone with what a wrote a few days back..lol.

Though perhaps to sell out now might be a bit premature.

Go me!
 
Yeah rub it in guys

Just waiting for that market to take a dive

tick tock tick tock
and cvn keeps going up and up

:banghead:

Do not hold cvn yet :rolleyes:
 
kingbrown said:
Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?

Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
Looks good on paper
Any recent bad points to watch ??

Iam a bit reluctant to buy at these higher prices ? ( dead cat bounce ? )

Who's waiting for a re-trace and at what prices ?

any comments about ?

K.B
Click to expand...

Mmm I don't think ramping...I just think a lot of people love the story (and there is a lot to love!).

There are of course downsides/risks involved:
- Sovereign Risk (Thailand's change of gov't, military coups etc)
- Failure to reach 15,000 BOPD target (they did alter this for exploration due to falling oil costs...still would be nice to achieve targets!)
- Oil rate is declining and they need more wells to come online (offset by the fact they have found new oil in a different permit to current)
- A lot of shares on issue (650+ million)

Of course there is a lot of upside/positives...but you can read the thread for all that ;)

JTLP
 
kingbrown said:
Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?

Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
Looks good on paper
Any recent bad points to watch ??

Iam a bit reluctant to buy at these higher prices ? ( dead cat bounce ? )

Who's waiting for a re-trace and at what prices ?

any comments about ?

K.B
Click to expand...

Im still waiting on a retrace to 29-30c . If and when this happens , I would be interested to see what kind of movement there is in the top 20. Hartleys have estimated a tax liabilty of $40m in may which will halve the cashflow . (Not that I trust some of these broker estimates) . see http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/ 30 march 09 release.

I am under the impression of a pump and dump scenario unfolding but as wonderrman pointed out , as long as you have a trailing stop loss , you should be fine.
 
seasprite said:
Im still waiting on a retrace to 29-30c . If and when this happens , I would be interested to see what kind of movement there is in the top 20. Hartleys have estimated a tax liabilty of $40m in may which will halve the cashflow . (Not that I trust some of these broker estimates) . see http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/ 30 march 09 release.

I am under the impression of a pump and dump scenario unfolding but as wonderrman pointed out , as long as you have a trailing stop loss , you should be fine.
Click to expand...

Hi Seasprite,

Can you explain what has aroused your suspicions of a "pump & dump" in CVN developing? I was assuming more speculation about the just released update report.

CVN has been pretty upfront about the somewhat high tax regime in Thailand all along.

Any thoughts about the recent release? A bit of water in L44W.

Cheers,

Kenny
 

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