CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[1234]

Wow, you guys don't read too much back in the thread eh??

That was primarily a rhetorical question and partially noting to those who didn't read the link that the targets were not the same as possibly alluded to.

I was in cvn well over 12 months ago and sold out at a bit over 40c with the sp tumbling, Director selling and the market going belly-up. (ok, I missed the market going belly up by a couple of months, I was holding & hoping - but got out before it came crashing down....)


My point - the value placed on a stock by those who are paid to value it is marginal, even irrelevant..... . Sorry, if Hartleys were any good they would have said sell when the Director sold at ~73c.. But then, with the holding they have and being on the payroll that wouldn't have been koshur, would it??

It will trade at what it trades at. Some will read the broker reports and take notice.. These may cause +'ve fluctuations over a day or so as the newbs take a nibble.

They (cvn) are capping production / income at 15k barrels a day. Until they have repeated success in Bo-Rang or another exploration field imo the SP aint going near the projected 'targets'..

Remember the only reason the sp topped 80c was because JP Morgan were taking a serious position (with good reason).. CVN has always been result/announcement driven. It trades up to an ann, then retraces back afterward. JP Morgans' buying pattern bucked that trend but since they stopped buying and started selling, the sp has gradually tumbled downward..



Hartley were tipping $1.00 in the raging bull market 12 months ago with half the production seen today.. POO counteracted by ex rate, double the bopd - additional tax therefore the lower (realistic) price target of 55c..... Still a good buy at anything 20-25 imo.

Cheers

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Wow, you guys don't read too much back in the thread eh??

That was primarily a rhetorical question and partially noting to those who didn't read the link that the targets were not the same as possibly alluded to.

I was in cvn well over 12 months ago and sold out at a bit over 40c with the sp tumbling, Director selling and the market going belly-up. (ok, I missed the market going belly up by a couple of months, I was holding & hoping - but got out before it came crashing down....)


My point - the value placed on a stock by those who are paid to value it is marginal, even irrelevant..... . Sorry, if Hartleys were any good they would have said sell when the Director sold at ~73c.. But then, with the holding they have and being on the payroll that wouldn't have been koshur, would it??

It will trade at what it trades at. Some will read the broker reports and take notice.. These may cause +'ve fluctuations over a day or so as the newbs take a nibble.

They (cvn) are capping production / income at 15k barrels a day. Until they have repeated success in Bo-Rang or another exploration field imo the SP aint going near the projected 'targets'..

Remember the only reason the sp topped 80c was because JP Morgan were taking a serious position (with good reason).. CVN has always been result/announcement driven. It trades up to an ann, then retraces back afterward. JP Morgans' buying pattern bucked that trend but since they stopped buying and started selling, the sp has gradually tumbled downward..



Hartley were tipping $1.00 in the raging bull market 12 months ago with half the production seen today.. POO counteracted by ex rate, double the bopd - additional tax therefore the lower (realistic) price target of 55c..... Still a good buy at anything 20-25 imo.

Cheers

You've got it in one mate.

Brokers estimations are inversely correlated with the subsequent share price in this market.

gg

 

[Miner]

how many times we have seen that brokers have said SELL ?
Very few actually.

When they say hold means actually more of a sell
When they say Buy means you buy and I am selling.
Rhetoric but if the brokers knew everything then they would not be brokers but a real investor or enterpreneurs

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

how many times we have seen that brokers have said SELL ?
Very few actually.

When they say hold means actually more of a sell
When they say Buy means you buy and I am selling.
Rhetoric but if the brokers knew everything then they would not be brokers but a real investor or enterpreneurs

Its a bit like alice in the looking glass.

Can't remember who said, "when I say something it means what I mean it to mean" or some such.

Brokers are a sad aspect of investing, a necessary evil whose advice should be taken with a grain of salt.

gg

 

[1234]

OOps.

Seems Hartley assume 90c ex rate and US$96bbl for WTI FY2008A. They also quote a SP of 27.5c & 28c in two different sections of the rls.. untidy..



Lets assume half price for oil, as it just hit US$40bbl and a realistic ex rate of .65c I've not bothered about the discount on the spot price due to the paraffin content (which would be a few bucks, dropping the real rate to ~ US$36 / US$37

85c upside in 12 months turns into ~35c (because the ex rate doesn't halve - which would be better for CVN with the falling WTI spot price..).

I'm assuming the price received for oil has a direct relationship on SP..

For those who will argue otherwise, where is the assumption wrong? (apart from not being able to predict the exchange rate and how oil will perform coming into Summer in the northern hemisphere)

 

[Miner]

OOps.

Seems Hartley assume 90c ex rate and US$96bbl for WTI FY2008A. They also quote a SP of 27.5c & 28c in two different sections of the rls.. untidy..


I'm assuming the price received for oil has a direct relationship on SP.. /QUOTE]

Dear 1234

You call the action by Hartley as untidy ? YOu have been very modest to condone them.

I think ASF (Joe Blow) should charge some fee to Hartley for educating them through such a fact finding free lessons in this Forum for which Hartley is charging fortune to their clients and still not delivering the result.

I hope some agent from Hartley is reading the postings in this forum as well and will publish a corrected report.

Reading what you said I think the assumptions were reasonable but probably being a Miner myself, let some Oiler please say how far your assumptions were right.

Nonetheless well done.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Carnarvons share price isn't only controlled by the POO (price of oil) because they are still growing through exploration (successful exploration) so pegging a future price is still crystal ball work. High hopes for eventual good gains because eventually the POO will rise again.

 

[seasprite]

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY MARKETWIRE


FOR: Pan Orient Energy Corp.

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: POE

December 10, 2008

Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Asia Operations Update


CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 10, 2008) - PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP. (TSX
VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE
UNITED STATES.

THAILAND

NSE-E1 exploration well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-E1 exploration well, located approximately 260 meters due west of the
NSE-D1 drill pad is producing at a rate of approximately 448 bbls of fluid per
day (173 barrels of oil and 275 barrels of water) from the main volcanic
reservoir target. Both oil gravity and pressure measurements confirm the well
is located in a distinctly separate pool on the downthrown side, west of a
large fault relative to the NSE field. On the basis of these NSE-E1 results,
NSE-E2 will be drilled approximately 360 meters southeast and 40 meters up dip
of the NSE-E1 location, a position interpreted to be significantly up dip of
the oil water contact that is believed to have been encountered at the bottom
of the main volcanic objective encountered at NSE-E1.

NSE-E1 was an exploration well designed to test an approximately 1 square
kilometer structural closure located on the down thrown side of the main NSE
field central fault compartment called NSE Central B. There had been no
reserves, of any category, assigned to the NSE Central B prospect in the year
end 2007 NI51-101 compliant reserves report.

NSE-D2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2 appraisal well encountered the top of the main volcanic reservoir at
a depth of depth of 754 meters true vertical depth (TVD) approximately 330
meters north of the NSE-D1 location. Approximately 34 meters of highly
fractured volcanic reservoir was drilled with mud losses of approximately 1,200
barrels. The well was put on test, flowing mainly gas with some oil, indicating
close proximity to an interpreted oil water contact. Rig 14 is currently
logging the main volcanic objective in a side track that encountered the main
volcanic reservoir approximately 30 meters structurally lower than in the
original well bore and believed to be below the gas/oil contact. Severe losses
were encountered indicating good fractured reservoir is present. Testing is
anticipated to commence once the rig has been moved off site to NSE-E2 and test
results will be reported when stabilized rates have been achieved.

L44-V appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The L44-V appraisal well, drilled from a surface location approximately 1.3
kilometers south west of the Bo Rang-1 gas discovery, is currently setting
intermediate casing at a depth of 484 meters (true vertical depth),
approximately 200 meters above the main volcanic objective. L44-V is targeting
a potential down dip oil leg within a volcanic reservoir that tested 5.5MMcfg/d
at the structurally higher Bo Rang-1 well drilled by an earlier operator of the
L44 concession area. Drilling is anticipated to be completed by year end.

 

[magnale]

Everyone have a very happy Xmas , and with a great deal of hope we might have a prosperous New Year

 

[bankit]

Hi All,

CVN is up 4 ¢ at the moment but according to a source it is end of year window dressing which is easy when the market is thin. Prices are likely to drop back on the opening of trading in the New Year.

Bankit

 

[derbon99]

Hi All,

CVN is up 4 ¢ at the moment but according to a source it is end of year window dressing which is easy when the market is thin. Prices are likely to drop back on the opening of trading in the New Year.

Bankit

Window dressing = To dump stocks with bad performance before the year end... So I think you are totally wrong as if it would be window dressing CVN would lose cents... I think the rise is due to the results of the 2 last wells of the year.

 

[bankit]

Window dressing = To dump stocks with bad performance before the year end... So I think you are totally wrong as if it would be window dressing CVN would lose cents.

Hi Debron99,

Wimdow dressing works both ways.

What if a fund wants to make their bottom line look good at the end of the year?

Bankit

 

[derbon99]

Hi Debron99,

Wimdow dressing works both ways.

What if a fund wants to make their bottom line look good at the end of the year?

Bankit

Hi,
Maybe you are right but for me window dressing is a process to hide the bad performer. So you sell stocks with weak return like CVN and you something else or you stay cash.
Happy new year

 

[seasprite]

Thailand Production
Thailand production exited 2008 at 13,446 bopd gross (5,378 bopd net to Carnarvon) which
was below the year end 2008 exit target of 15,000 bopd gross (6,000 bopd net). The target was
not met due mainly to NSE-D2ST1 once again intersecting a gas cap, and a year end focus on
wells targeting reserves additions rather than production. Year end drilling focused around
potential new reserves drilling at NSE-E2 and Bo Rang (L44-V) due in part to a reduced oil
price. At year end two wells awaited testing (NSE-E2 and L44-V), that in the success case
would result in incremental production. The year end exit production rate of 5,378 bopd, net to
Carnarvon, was an increase of 2,438 bopd, or 83%, over the 2007 exit rate of 2,940 bopd. The
Company continues to focus on production growth in combination with establishing new
reserves that would enable production to be maintained and grow through 2009.

 

[JTLP]

I've got to be honest here...

I have a fondness for the old CVN...having held for a long time. This year did indeed look to be the most exciting...with the prediction of 15,000 BOPD (CVN net 6,000 BOPD) to be on target and well within reach. Even Ted was giving it the green light and saying it was easily achievable.

But to fall short at the end of the year and not to have drill results was quite a kick in the guts. It was clearly frowned upon today in trading and to be honest I was pretty disappointed as an investor. They have incredible strike ratio's and very prospective land...they could have released the choke on some of the flows to achieve the target? I know they specified reasons for not reaching it (gas cap etc) but still...bit disappointing.

On the plus side we have new concessions to look forward to in '09 (50% with Pearl Energy...pending the awards which are due in early '09) and some new wells which look intriguing. Hoping we can keep the head above 30 and POO can stay around the $50 US mark.

Does anyone know how many drills are planned for '09? And again...would love to see some munching of predators happening...

OOOH and don't forget reserves update

JTLP

 

[seasprite]

so far holding up nicely jtc . I managed to pick up a parcel at 28.5 . Little bit disappointing with the announcement the other day , however NSE-D2 has been a problem child. wait and see what ST2 brings and yes they do have an incredible strike rate .

don't know CVN's master plan as far as drilling schedules go . Most oilers have pushed their schedules out .

 

[magnale]

It is holding up well considering the oil price and the general malaise of the global crisis I can't think of anything else except that as an amateur speculator I always appreciate what you write

 

[seasprite]

It is holding up well considering the oil price and the general malaise of the global crisis )

I hate to be the bearer of bad news , but price of oil has taken a hammering overnight (now almost US$4) which will put it at about minus US$15 per barrel over this last week, it is almost advantageous that CVN pumps less to sales than receive less revenue for more product.

 

[Dukey]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news , but price of oil has taken a hammering overnight (now almost US$4) which will put it at about minus US$15 per barrel over this last week, it is almost advantageous that CVN pumps less to sales than receive less revenue for more product.

????


POO currently about $35.... perhaps you slipped on the keyboard.

I don't believe it will stay that low for long... the saudis will make sure of it.

my - d

 

[Real1ty]

????


POO currently about $35.... perhaps you slipped on the keyboard.

seasprite was pointing out that it had slipped approximately $15.00 in the last week not that it was that price....