CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[chewy]

I can't see why anyone would sell today. L44H-D2 still has 3 more zones (plus the main one) to test yet. And NS5-D1ST sounds like a ripper and only 10-12 days to wait for those flow tests...

Edit - not saying they wont, just that they must be daft!

 

[Rob 17]

I think we will see some selling pressure because the joint venture parnter was sold off, down 9.75%. It hasnt had the rise that CVN has over the past month so we can see CVN in the red today.

Overall i still like the stock. Although the poor results are a let down.

DYOR

 

[MangaNOID]

Actually it is negative.



Second well was abandoned = not good

the second well you think is abandoned is actually still talking about the first well NS3-D1ST.

it says "the decision was made to terminate the drilling of the well"

which means they stopped drilling to then do the testing which states in paragraph one "A number of options will be considered to optimize production depending on the final analysis of results."

this to me says inconclusive at this time.

hopefully cvn will re-word their ann better.

 

[Dukey]

Whats the fuss about ... Oil drilling is a complex and inexact science... but I really don't see anything overly negative here!!... (apart from the over-reaction with POE in Canada.)

NS3-D1ST = Options being considered to optimize production depending on the final analysis of results.

L44H-D2 = testing multiple layers

NS5-D1ST = testing to come.

L33-3 Exploration Well = Drilling ahead

If some folks want to over-react... thats their loss IMHO.
If I didn't have plenty already - I'd be considering topping up if there's a correction today!

DYOR.
-Dukey.

 

[adobee]

Anything below 70c I am going to start buying ..
I dont see any really negative news and there is plenty of upside still to come..

 

[1234]

It's not that the result/ann is overly -'ve, it's the timing.

There will be sellers who will offload, then come back in a week for the flow results.

They trade, we invest (to an extent.) There is a distinct difference in the mentality and interpretation of results and hence trading...

Chill, she aint going too far south for anyone..

 

[quarky]

Anything below 70c I am going to start buying ..
I dont see any really negative news and there is plenty of upside still to come..

you got what you wished for.
CVN is at $0.685 today, so it's dropped significantly from the highs of $0.80 a couple of weeks ago.

i should have sold it then.


then again, a lot of resource stocks have gone down slightly today anyway.
oh well, more waiting then...

 

[doogie_goes_off]

JP Morgan have become a substantial holder, a very good sign for long term fundamentals in my view.

 

[adobee]

JP Morgan have become a substantial holder, a very good sign for long term fundamentals in my view.

This is great news.. perhaps with JP Morgan getting on board other major investors will start paying attention too.. i would expect for the mean time that 5% of the shares will have less trading also which should be benneficial..
I wouldnt expect they would be taking a 5% position if they didnt expect big things from cvn or saw the share price slding much further..

 

[kenny]

With the downtrend CVN finds itself right now, I'm feeling like one of those "Trader turned Investor" while watching my stock stumble towards a Trailing SL.

Correct me if I'm wrong but we should expect results within 14 days or so and appraisal wells usually test ok. L33-3 has already been flagged a high risk play with possibly some nice returns.

Anyone care to offer Fib retrace level? mid 50's?

Cheers,

Kenny

 

[1234]

kenny - news within 7 days mate, possibly as early as Tuesday.

I wouldn't be too bothered about the downtrend, following a very familiar pattern. I expect a gentle rise over the next 2-3 trading days with results mid/late nxt week at the latest. (10-12 days from 28th May ANN as stated)

 

[JTLP]

I'm pretty sure i made mention of JP Morgan flying up the register a month back...good to see it came to fruition.

Now all we need is another 10 top institutions taking a 5% stake and that should sure as S&^t tighten up this crappy register. GAH i always say too many on issue.

Here's looking forward to at least getting a 2,000 bopd well. Need some more flows to add to reserves.

7 days is a longggg time in this market atm

 

[chewy]

Last ann said 10-12 days for NS5-D1ST flow rates and 10 days for the other zones of L44H-D2. Today is day 9 and monday is a holiday - so should be the usual scramble late today to get on board before the ann if past patterns hold true.

 

[JTLP]

Investor report out late afternoon.

Basically a re-hash of the previous one, but with some nice things:

- $23 mil cash
- No Debt
- Expansion plans within S.E Asia (this gets mentioned quite a bit)
- Some focus on the other plays outside of Thailand (offshore West Australia, plus potential gas play for '09)
- Sole bidder on new blocks with Pearl Energy

I want CVN to grow and grow. I wish they would start announcing new projects and eating up into other territory. Would LOVE to look back in 10 years time and think "GG was right with his itch of a mini WPL" ...

Time will tell but for now...

VIVA LA CVN!

 

[MS+Tradesim]

While we're waiting for the next announcement, Hartley's have an update for May 30 which clarifies some of the info from our last ann. Worth a read:
http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/CVN External 20080529 BUN.pdf

 

[allaboutprofits]

Seems the story continues... POE update...




Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Drilling Update

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - June 12, 2008) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) (45,391,442 common shares issued):

L44H-D2 Exploration/Appraisal Well Testing (60% WI & Operator)

The L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well, in addition to the main volcanic zone, penetrated five deeper never before tested volcanic intervals. Testing has now been completed on the four most prospective deeper volcanic zones resulting in the failure to yield commercial hydrocarbons.

The last test, within the main producing volcanic zone, through casing perforations (whereas the other NSE wells are produced optimally as open hole wells) between 840 and 860 meters MD has resulted in oil production at a restricted rate of approximately 600 bopd.

NS5-D1ST Horizontal Development Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NS5-D1ST horizontal development well, located in the southern most, down dip portion of the NSE Central fault compartment had reached a total measured depth of 1,406 meters (872 meters TVD) within the target volcanic reservoir zone. Testing has now been underway for approximately 4 days with the well on low pump setting and still in clean up stage, after the loss of 7,200 barrels of mainly fresh water pumped into the formation during drilling operations. Oil rates have been variable between 85-140 bopd with 60 to 142 barrels of fresh water.

NS5-D1ST is the last of two wells (the other being NS3-D1ST announced on May 27) to be drilled on the structurally low flanks of the Na Sanun East oil field. NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST were the only accessible locations on NSE prior to the granting of recently received environmental approval for the drilling of an additional 19 development and appraisal wells within the area of the NSE field. Drilling of these new locations is about to commence, as detailed later in this release.

L33-3 Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L33-3 exploration well, located on concession L33, was drilled to a total true vertical depth of approximately 1,084 meters encountering a potential volcanic reservoir between 960 and 1,084 meters. Lost circulation was encountered at 960, 1,021, 1,035, 1,046, 1,060, 1,064 and 1,082 meters at rates between 4.6 and 120 barrels per hour. Similar to successful POE-9, NS6-D1A and L44-R wells, no oil shows were encountered while drilling the potential reservoir section.

L33-3 is a high risk stratigraphic test well drilled on the basis of one 2D seismic line within the untested Khon Khwang graben, located 33 kilometers north of the nearest proven production at Wichian Buri. The objective of the well is to evaluate the source rock and reservoir potential within the Khon Khwang sub basin. Validation of the source rock presence and maturity would approximately double the region of hydrocarbon potential within concessions L33 and L44 and result in an extensive 2D seismic program over this large area in July 2008.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within 10 to 14 days.

NS9-H1 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

NS9-H1, located within the Na Sanun oil field (due west and distinctly separate from NSE) and within the SW1A contract area, is currently drilling ahead at a true vertical depth of 433 meters towards the horizontal kick off point above the main volcanic reservoir objective predicted at approximately 935 meters TVD. The well is planned to intersect the target at a point approximately 250 meters northeast of the NS-1 well and 20 to 25 meters structural higher. Drilling is anticipated to be completed within 14 days.

NSE-A1 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NSE-A1 appraisal well will start drilling in approximately 7 days, immediately after casing has been set on L33-3 and the rig moved on to location. The well is located at the crest of the NSE Central fault compartment, offsetting the L44H-D1 well which is currently producing at 3,300 bopd. The drill pad consists of 4 drilling cellars with the first well planned to be drilled vertically and to core the upper section of the approximately 180 meter thick main volcanic reservoir. An additional three deviated/horizontal wells will be drilled in succession immediately thereafter.

Summary

With the imminent drilling of the NSE-A1 well, full scale development of the NSE field will kick off, with up to 19 wells that are optimally located in the NSE Central fault compartment targeting 2P and 3P reserves, and the Northern fault compartment targeting prospective resources. A delay of 6 months while waiting for environmental approval of the 19 NSE development well locations resulted in the drilling of less than ideal down flank wells (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) in an attempt to build production and offset the decline in field production from peak levels. The same period also resulted in the building of tanker and refinery offloading capacity up to the approximately 15,000 bopd level, which will ensure deliverability as near term production grows over the coming months.

With the initiation of drilling from the 4 well NSE-A pad, production is anticipated to increase significantly over the coming two to three month period. An additional three multi-well pads are under construction over the northern undeveloped portion of the NSE central fault compartment. In addition, land purchase is underway for a number of drilling locations in the NSE north fault compartment (a large prospective resource region) and the NSE central fault compartment (a large 3P reserve region), with the objective of increasing the Company's proved and probable reserves.

Field production to date has been well within management expectations, given the six month delay in location approvals. Current production capacity is approximately 7,900 bopd gross (Pan Orient 60% WI). Of this production, only 3 wells have more than a 1% water cut; the 2 structurally lowest wells (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) and L44H-D2.

NS3-ST1 was produced as high as 1,800 bopd for three days with nominal water before showing immediate water cuts. It is highly likely that if the well had been choked back to rates of less than 1,000 bopd it would still, and for some time in the future, continue to produce with low water cuts. Analysis indicates water was drawn up from the underlying, nearby water leg as a result of producing at far too high of a rate given the relative permeability between NSE crude and water, and the wells low structural position. Similarly, NS5-D1ST was drilled down flank on the NSE central fault compartment and still in the clean up stage after losing 7,200 bbls of fresh water into the formation due to lost circulation while drilling. L44H-D2, in addition to the approximately 600 barrels of oil production a day, is currently producing approximately 380 barrels of water per day as a result of a very poor cement job over the 180 meter thick, most intensely fractured volcanic section penetrated in any well to date. Within this volcanic section, approximately 80 meters of oil bearing reservoir was penetrated before drilling below the field oil water contact to target the deeper volcanic zones. A remedial cement job was not possible due to two casing strings present over the producing reservoir section, as the well was programmed to target testing of deeper volcanic zones. A nearby well up structure is producing at 0% water and a well down structure at less than 1% water.

All other producing NSE wells, other than the three described above, produce with water cuts ranging from 0.01% and 1.0%. These other wells account for approximately 89% of the NSE oil production.

Of particular note, L44H-D1, the highest flow rate well ever drilled onshore Thailand and located off the crest of the NSE central fault compartment, was put on production at a rate of approximately 3,500 bopd six months ago and continues to produce at approximately 3,300 bopd (representing a decline rate of approximately 6%) with a water cut of 0.01% throughout its history. Cumulative production for this well alone is over 600,000 barrels of oil.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand, Indonesia and in Western Canada.

 

[grace]

I'm really hopeless at determining whether these announcements are good or bad. I gather it's a bit of both....would that be right?

 

[Dukey]

I'm really hopeless at determining whether these announcements are good or bad. I gather it's a bit of both....would that be right?

It is difficult to wade through....

I like this bit...

With the initiation of drilling from the 4 well NSE-A pad, production is anticipated to increase significantly over the coming two to three month period. An additional three multi-well pads are under construction over the northern undeveloped portion of the NSE central fault compartment.

so it seems that these two wells : (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) were not 'first choice' locations - but were drilled because they had the rig booked/ready but didn't get approvals on time to drill preferred locations.

- if you wanna see the negative you could say its an excuse.... or you could see it +vely as a 'good reason' and adding to their knowledge of the area. Hard to know which is more accurate.

Most of the other bit seem similar - + & -.

600 bopd from L44H-D2 on restricted flow helps a bit but market possibly expected better.

I guess in the current market - sp may well drop tomorrow.... but for long termers - I think the next few months will see nice production increases, so I'l hang in there for the black gold at the end of this little rainbow .

 

[allaboutprofits]

From what I believe traders/investors were hoping for a greater momentum in producing oil than what has been so far achieved. Even though there are small gains from this announcement, the momentum seems to have slowed down. If we are holding for a longish term (I am), the prospect looks good. Though for traders, I think we might see a short term dip in SP. Hard to say for sure in this current market with high oil prices and demand... Only time will tell, and this benefits the longer term investors...

 

[JTLP]

CVN is going to get smashed tomorrow.

That is a really poor announcement.

They built a lot of potential into the previous ann and then this comes, and we have barely any oil. Trader's will not like this at all.

They better pull out another JP MORGAN style investor to build in some support for the SP. Hopefully that was the reason for the latest investor report.

Not really enjoying tomorrow...