CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[doogie_goes_off]

Net oil production hasn't really changed, the NSE field is proven as an oil producing field and the first new hole from a vertical access is almost under way. Traders may drive this one down - I'm sitting tight for a few weeks as NSE looks like a winner to me, the great thing is that approvals appear to have plenty of room for increased production if it's successful (a good chance).

 

[snake100]

Ann came out in the morning on the 13th, and share price has factored the ann already, however agree it will decrease again.

Things to understand with oil company announcements are depth of the well, on shore vs off shore, depth of oil, also the grade plus flow rate and when production will occur. Good traders take everything into consideration. Hope this helps somewhat.

 

[JTLP]

Hmmm...

Investor Update came out right before a not so great outcome from the Ann.

Hopefully we are appealing to more "JP Morgan" esque funds and they aren't scared by this little doozy!

I remember reading on here about Ted's goal to stabilize the stock with more institutional and long haul investors...i dig that if he can get it.

Last time a "drilling update" occurred the SP got smashed only to recover beautifully. It has recovered well once again and hopefully we are seeing another major take a position, or JP taking some of the trader's stock off their hands

It is also all good to see more approvals for NSE...fingers crossed for a 3rd drill rig to come online in August.

Would really like to the company to update us on other projects AND PLEASE TED IF YOU READ THIS start announcing acquisitions into other parts of Asia or Australia and start chugging the CVN juggernaut to new great heights.

JTLP

 

[adobee]

I am reasonable confident to leave my CVN sitting around for now.. what are other CVN holders holding as early day oil producers ?

 

[MS+Tradesim]

From a VSA perspective we now have a fourth day where the selldowns couldn't be sustained. Buyers are happy to pick up stock off eager sellers at this level. The lows are getting higher. Don't know if this will last long but when all the available shares at these prices are soaked up we should be off again.

 

[JTLP]

Hmm it could well be another insto buying with these larger claw backs.

This happened last time the results weren't up to expectation...(big swings) so lets hope we are getting another insto on board (maybe ted has been listening to me and reading ASF ) it would coincide nicely with the presentation

 

[grace]

What is with this one today? Oil price goes up, this goes down. Doesn't make any sense to me...comments anyone? Down close to 10% hitting low of 55c.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Not sure but I think it's just swings and roundabouts. I expect this one to come back to the 60c support where it has kicked up a couple of times before. Still fundamentally good with brilliant upside.

 

[Rob 17]

Im very concerned with this one.

I have been watching the Joint Venture partner over the last two days and it has fallen over 12%.

I was looking to get back in at .55 cents but pulled out last minute. It will be interesting to see if any news comes out over night.

Do You Own Research and Take Care

 

[adobee]

has me a little worried craxy oil price but big drop !!!
but i still might top up if come down around 50c..
perhaps a large holder just existing their position.. if this is the case we will see a change in holdings.. 40 c seemed to be the bottom when the credit crunch hit which was pure panic selling.. unless the well has run dry i cant see to many problems..

 

[Go Nuke]

Alot of strange things happen around tax time.

Tax, tax tax. Need I say more
Probably cashing in to balance out some losses in the finance sector

 

[Max_ob]

bugger. . .. . when i left my machine, it was on .59 . . . .

what a shock to find it at .545 . . . .


also wondering what happened. . . . i bought in at .655 a while ago. . . . so carrying a bit of a loss on this one now. . . . hope it is judst tax selling and not some insiders knowing of some pending baaad news. . .

 

[Max_ob]

actually. . . i have just consulted my genuine bohemian crystal ball. . . . and it says a definite bounce on Monday. . . . .

. . . . this is barring any bad announcement of course. . then it would be for missing my stop loss. . . .

 

[1234]

Max - I've been holding a long time an whilst the current market situation does not help those who bought in recently, I too topped up at 65.5 in confidence...

I won't be offloading a single one of them for a looong time yet..

Put the S/L on ignore, you'll be glad you did for the multi well should bring some nice rises in sp for those holding.. Not too far away now..

The next ann won't be very goo imo as it's a wildcat - high risk well.. Even a sniff of oil from that will be a massive bonus.. Not holding my breath tho

Market always drops @ tax time, you get that..

 

[Max_ob]

thanks for the vote of confidence in this stock 1234. . . . for LT


the next ann has me a little concerned with the quick sp decline. . . and with the US having had another bad day on friday. . .

breaking through and closing below the 52c mark would worry me dearly. . .

 

[JTLP]

Hmmm, folks you have to remember (and i'm not saying this is the cause for the sell off but probably a very realistic reason) that CVN was on 10 cents at this stage a year ago. Very high probability that there has been some combination of selling for cap gains as well as stop losses being hit.

Nothing has changed with CVN...very tight lipped ship (don't even reply to my e-mails haha) so I doubt it's an insider slamming them.

Does look to be a generous 1 mil on the sell side keeping things down though...accumulation perhaps?

Results are definetly due this week for some low and high risk wells...as somebody else mentioned wildcat drilling...could be a lucky surprise?

I'm holding steady with CVN...by years end will be producing 6,000 BOPD...that's a very good effort from what they were producing a year ago!

Love the management also...always seem nice and agressive. I've spelled out the year ahead a few pages back...and i've even missed some parts!

Also an investor presentation was put out...hopefully we can see some big buying happening again.

JTLP

 

[michael_selway]

Hmmm, folks you have to remember (and i'm not saying this is the cause for the sell off but probably a very realistic reason) that CVN was on 10 cents at this stage a year ago. Very high probability that there has been some combination of selling for cap gains as well as stop losses being hit.

Nothing has changed with CVN...very tight lipped ship (don't even reply to my e-mails haha) so I doubt it's an insider slamming them.

Does look to be a generous 1 mil on the sell side keeping things down though...accumulation perhaps?

Results are definetly due this week for some low and high risk wells...as somebody else mentioned wildcat drilling...could be a lucky surprise?

I'm holding steady with CVN...by years end will be producing 6,000 BOPD...that's a very good effort from what they were producing a year ago!

Love the management also...always seem nice and agressive. I've spelled out the year ahead a few pages back...and i've even missed some parts!

Also an investor presentation was put out...hopefully we can see some big buying happening again.

JTLP

Hi do you know whatthe expected mien life is at full production?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 4.1 8.6 9.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[JTLP]

Hi do you know whatthe expected mien life is at full production?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 4.1 8.6 9.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Hi Michael,

I'm pretty sure that the JV in Thailand does not want to exceed producing 20,000 BOPD (net 6,000 to CVN) due to the excessive taxes that would have to be paid (SRB + royalties...quite a lot sadly)...so i'm guessing the expected life of the Thailand fields with the JV (POE) to be the following (figures relate to CVN only):

Using 2P reserves of: 11.377 MMBBLS

CVN producing at max. capacity: 6000 BOPD

SO

6,000 BOPD x 365 (day in day out full cap.) = 2,190,000 = 2.19 MMBBLS per year

11.377 / 2.19 = 5.2

So (if my maths is correct) then i'd say that CVN could comfortably produce for 5 years out of there current Thailand fields only.

ALSO NOTE:

These figures are 2P and do not take into account future drilling successes (and don't include oil finds at the start of the year).

Hope that helps Michael...I still see lots of upside in CVN...maybe they can weasel there way with the Thai government and scrap some of those taxes...that would be nice!

Adios...

JTLP

 

[Rob 17]

Does anyone know why CVN has gone out of favour? Seems like there a many large sell orders lined up. Hope we come across some oil soon.

 

[money maker]

would not worry too much.Many sellers leading up to end of financial year locking in losses probably when they bought above current levels and spooked into selling for capital gains offset.

fundamentals are all still there so not worrying me much.will skyrocket again on good news and todays trading appears promising.