CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Garpal Gumnut]

I enclose an interesting chart, a weekly from the beginning of last year to the present.

Its particularly relevant for those who were upset when I pointed out that the charts suggested cvn was topping at above 70c about Dec 07.

Since then it has retraced 61% in a wave 2 and it now appears to be starting a wave 3 of an Elliot Wave pattern. This wave is usually longer than wave 1 .

So the funnymentalists may be correct as if it is a wave 3 then $1.30 is not out of the question. Oh that Rene Rivkin were alive. Now we only have Hartley, Fat Profits and Intelligent Inv to sell pamphlets to the funnymentalists, I believe some of them agree with a wave 3, from their tea cups!! Oh and Opes is gone so it will be back to the instos and superfunds to kick this one along.

gg

I must disagree with Hartley. Funnymentalists have so many figures to multiply and divide, big words like porous to deal with that they sometimes press the button on their calculators rather than that on their thesaurus.

According to the EW count which so far seems to be fulfilling , if this stock goes above .80 it will keep on going above 1.30 minimum.

I get lost in oil reports and I fear they have too. 1.10 or 1.15 seems conservative for a wave 3. Then again we could both be wrong !!

I enclose a chart up to date yesterday.

gg

A weekly

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have had my eye on this stock for awhile but was always put off by the lower price they receive for their oil.

I ended up getting in at .54 last week, so am happy with my decision atm.

There has been a fair bit of strength in the sp and some largish X trades going through but one thing i have noticed is their is usually a lot of larger trades going through right on the close.

Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb.

I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.

I do hope Reality that you kept your bottle and didn't get out of cvn as its still in an uptrend.

gg

 

[Real1ty]

Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb.

I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.

I do hope Reality that you kept your bottle and didn't get out of cvn as its still in an uptrend.

gg

Thanks for the chart GG.

I'm still in and think i will be for awhile yet.

I was always of the opinion that CVN was undervalued and it would appear that others are starting to believe this also.

If the POO stays around current levels and with the amount of targets CVN has then there is a lot further to run on this one imo.

cheers

 

[1234]

GG, nice work.

I was dubious as to how CVN would react to this latest re - rating but it seems the market has taken a hold of CVN ove the past week or so.

73c this morning, no sign of slowing just yet..

Interesting times..

 

[treefrog]

Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb.

I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.

I do hope Reality that you kept your bottle and didn't get out of cvn as its still in an uptrend.

gg

don't do elliot thingies but looking at a straight fib extension from the ABC of 10-77-36 we get first target of 77 (duh obvious); second of 103 and the third of 144

 

[eddyeagle]

Nice little rally at the moment for CVN...
I would be interested in hearing people's thoughts on setting a stop loss for this one. I want to be more active in terms of locking-in profits this year and I was thinking of setting a stop loss of 15% below however high it runs, therefore not limiting my upside. Thoughts anyone?

 

[1234]

Eddy,

Too may gaps up here to gauge properly and not enough recent support for long term confidence.. (Based on sp history) Careful not to stop yourself out of a nice run...... Check the history and check the retrace even on a good ann..

BUT trading has taken a different path of late, I doubt low 50's will be tested again without major market influence. Seems sell orders are being taken out without resistance, this is a new trend for CVN.. Previously being held at the mercy of bots and traders...

With current well success pinned at 80% (projected) 15% will see a fair amount of profit locked in - next year..

Keep in mind I intend holding for the next 12 - 18 months irrespective of anns and sp movement.

Good luck, go the Fundy stocks (loving the T/A) !!

 

[Robbo]

Was just about to go to bed,

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=852771&k=pan orient

POE-9A Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The POE-9A vertical appraisal well, located approximately 130 meters south of the NSE discovery well POE-9 is producing, on pump, from the main volcanic zone at rates of approximately 682 bopd, with a 6.5% BS&W, as the well continues to clean up. Based on the fluid levels recorded in the well bore, the current rate is believed to be restricted by the slim hole casing (4.5") design of the well. An earlier test of a deeper volcanic zone failed to produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates.

L44H-D2 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well is currently logging after reaching a total depth of 2,357 meters measured depth ("MD"), 2,103 meters true vertical depth ("TVD").

In addition to the main volcanic zone, five deeper, never before tested volcanic intervals have been encountered at 1,079, 1,154, 1,483, 1,698 and 1,824 meters MD with measured thicknesses of 21, 6, 27, 62 and 26 meters respectively. Oil shows were observed while drilling at depths of 1,080-1,100m, 1,505-1,510m and 1,845-1,850m. Upon the completion of logging, it is anticipated testing will be conducted on up to four zones and take approximately 21 days to completion, at which time results will be announced. Unlike POE-9A, which is in the southern fault compartment of NSE and was drilled to only one deeper volcanic horizon, L44H-D2 is in the central fault compartment of NSE and is planned to test multiple deeper volcanic zones.

NS3-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NS3-D1 high angle deviated/horizontal side track is currently drilling ahead at a measured depth of 928 meters (848 meters TVD) within a volcanic tuff above the main volcanic target zone. Lost circulation of approximately 200bbls/hr has been encountered in the volcanic tuffs that sit immediately above the main volcanic target zone.

NS3-D1 ST will deviate north of the original NS3-D1 well bore and is projected to drill an approximately 200 meter horizontal section of the main target volcanic. As part of this operation, the original NS3-D1 well bore has been abandoned and will be replaced by this new, horizontal side track.

Drilling is anticipated to be completed in approximately 12 days.

NS8-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

Upon the completion of L44H-D2, the Aztec rig #14 will move to the NS8-D1 well location where, in exactly the same fashion as NS3-D1, a horizontal side track will be drilled utilizing the existing well bore.

Operations Update

Production is approximately 7,200 bopd (gross) with the NS3-D1 and NS8-D1 wells shut-in while horizontal side track operations are either underway, or about to be underway.

Environmental approval has now been received for 32 drilling locations at Na Sanun East and Wichian Buri. Construction is currently underway on location NSE9-G, located at the crest of the NSE central fault compartment where up to three horizontal wells are anticipated to be drilled from the same surface location, commencing in approximately 5 weeks. With the approval of the NSE development location in hand, production is anticipated to ramp up significantly over the coming three to six months.

 

[panikhide]

There was a huge spike in volume with this just before 11am and the price dropped to $0.59. What was that about?

 

[Dukey]

Not a great reaction to the drilling news which seemed pretty good to me... I mean - another well flowing at over 600bpd - increases the production by something like 10%. Maybe traders were hoping for more from the deeper sections of the hole?? Other holes still sound promising. Maybe someone more adept at interpreting these announcements could have a go at deciphering?!

Doesn't bother me - I'll be in CVN for a good while yet - maybe years.

As for the big dip in price - hard to say but maybe some stops got triggered for short term traders.
she's back up to 66.5 now - so thats their loss!!!
... all IMHO.

(holding CVN)

 

[adobee]

I think the problem here is to many traders when ever new highs are reached people want to lock in profits and do.. there after the price falls back again.. its not until an institution gets on board that we really get great movement as they tend to buy and hold a bit longer..

 

[MangaNOID]

yes this really is a good announcement if you read the history of cvn in the NSE field. POE9A at 600 bopd is MORE than the poe 9 well last year.

L44H-D2 (about to test soon) will be VERY interesting with the deeper volcanics similar to POE9A as the last L44h-D1 was record production!

very happy investor

 

[INORE]

yes this really is a good announcement if you read the history of cvn in the NSE field. POE9A at 600 bopd is MORE than the poe 9 well last year.

L44H-D2 (about to test soon) will be VERY interesting with the deeper volcanics similar to POE9A as the last L44h-D1 was record production!

very happy investor

WELL HARTLEYS AGREE WITH YOU IN THEIR LATEST ANALYSIS...the result of POE9A is a GOOD result but not a GREAT result....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There was a huge spike in volume with this just before 11am and the price dropped to $0.59. What was that about?

A very good question.

Enclosed is a daily chart, candlesticks.

No real pattern indicating future movement up or down, though I'm no expert on the Japanese charting. It closed higher than it opened but did fall a considerable distance during the day.

Another "sophisticated investor" selling to pay off his boat, bank, broker, protection, or ex girlfriend ?????

The line is a 30 day moving average, may be a suitable stop loss for the short term traders.

If I were a big fund though I'd be accumulating now as others have suggested.

gg

 

[roland]

Oil up again overnight boys. Pre open market depth looks to be in our favour

I got on board with a small parcel yesterday on the dip, looking forward to the ride.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Serious buyers filling the gaps below 65c and a weak opening really, makes me want to sue commsec who couldn't confirm my cash position yesterday so I missed the dip... poop

 

[Go Nuke]

A very good question.

Enclosed is a daily chart, candlesticks.

No real pattern indicating future movement up or down, though I'm no expert on the Japanese charting. It closed higher than it opened but did fall a considerable distance during the day.

Another "sophisticated investor" selling to pay off his boat, bank, broker, protection, or ex girlfriend ?????

The line is a 30 day moving average, may be a suitable stop loss for the short term traders.

If I were a big fund though I'd be accumulating now as others have suggested.

gg

Well im no expert either though I do find candlestick charting very interesting

The doji star signaled a top and if Wed trading had of opened below the real body of Tuesdays and closed down then we would have had a "Evening Star" pattern. Not only that but if that had happend Wednesdays trading day would also have formed a "Hangman"

All 3 of these signals would be bearish. It might have only lasted a day or 2 but bearish non the less.

Anyway, as Wed finished UP, i would have said that the doji still confirmed a top.
If today finished at 70c then I think this is pretty much a "Harami cross" pattern (though its more of one after a long white candle). This being at the top of a run could also spell a reversal.
But like I said. it may only last a day or two..who knows.
On a positive note, at least there are alot more buyers to sellers

ps the pic is probably crap. I cant seem to save as a JPEG under 170.9. Pic size is 1195X 869?

 

[adobee]

I dont know about the graphs but this is the best mount up of buyers at 70c+ i have seen for a long time with cvn. ..

I was thinking about freeing up some cash from my cvn for some other buys but now think I will wait a bit longer !

 

[kenny]

Glad to see CVN steady ascension over recent weeks. The downspike a few days ago to 59c looks more like a Stop loss raid now to me in hindsight.

It would be nice to see support at close at 72c+.

Cheers,

Kenny

 

[Go Nuke]

Wow it seems it was mearly a breather that was taken around may 5th/6th.

As I also stated though there was heaps of volume on the buy side which kept its bullish out look.

Im sure the price of oil is helping this stock along.

Looks like the highest close today since August 23rd 1995 where it closed at 88.9c

Great stock and I wish i had been along for the ride sooner when i first saw someone pick CVN for the ASF stock tipping comp Aug last year