CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Garpal Gumnut]

I still see lots of upside in CVN...maybe they can weasel there way with the Thai government and scrap some of those taxes...that would be nice!

Adios...

JTLP

Sovereign risk appears the main risk. I do hope all the multiplication on barrels, feet, dollars, bhaaat and arabs is correct, I'll leave that to the funnymentalists.

My hopes for a wave 3 going up to $1.30 were misplaced. I still feel bullish on CVN, very low volumes on the June retracement, and I agree that tax/cg/cl influenced many to sell in June. I considered it but the volumes decided me against it.

This chart appears to be a fit up, tailored to my gut view. It may be, but a rise in price in July would make me very bullish on CVN.

Its good to be home in OZ. The rest of the world seems like a crazy place compared to home.

gg

 

[Tukker]

I liked the way the chart looked and jumped on board today. Appeared to be oversold and holding well on a crap day. With tax selling out of the way id like to see the hot stuff getting hotter; oil, coal, potash, and grandmas curry.

Gl to holders

 

[Motogoon]

I like the look of that chart Gumnut, if it happens like that i'll be a very happy man. I bought in at 67, watched it go to 80, then saw my hopes and dreams smashed on the rocks as hit the low 50's, (well not really all my hopes and dreams, but the new heat pump i wanted for the house will have to wait, man its cold here in good old NZ)

 

[JTLP]

Sovereign risk appears the main risk. I do hope all the multiplication on barrels, feet, dollars, bhaaat and arabs is correct, I'll leave that to the funnymentalists.

My hopes for a wave 3 going up to $1.30 were misplaced. I still feel bullish on CVN, very low volumes on the June retracement, and I agree that tax/cg/cl influenced many to sell in June. I considered it but the volumes decided me against it.

This chart appears to be a fit up, tailored to my gut view. It may be, but a rise in price in July would make me very bullish on CVN.

Its good to be home in OZ. The rest of the world seems like a crazy place compared to home.

gg

Thanks GG...you provide the T/A ill drop the F/A!

Question...with the WAVE 5...if it reaches its target; do we then go through the A B C cycle and back to EW? Not too sure how that all works

Good to see CVN gaining again today. Just hope it isn't on expectation of an ann and as mentioned a gazillion times, an investor

GG; the point i was getting across with my calcs was that of CVN's upside in it's current Thai fields. If it decides to take up an option with Pearl Energy (Thai company) then from memory the SRB tax is in essence reset to zero and they can produce more again! LOL.

I am hoping that to reduce this risk they begin to look at acquire exploration areas outside of Thailand and in more parts of S.E Asia.

Sovereign risk is a killer though you are correct...get some tax treaties with Thailand Kruddy!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks GG...you provide the T/A ill drop the F/A!

Question...with the WAVE 5...if it reaches its target; do we then go through the A B C cycle and back to EW? Not too sure how that all works

Good to see CVN gaining again today. Just hope it isn't on expectation of an ann and as mentioned a gazillion times, an investor

GG; the point i was getting across with my calcs was that of CVN's upside in it's current Thai fields. If it decides to take up an option with Pearl Energy (Thai company) then from memory the SRB tax is in essence reset to zero and they can produce more again! LOL.

I am hoping that to reduce this risk they begin to look at acquire exploration areas outside of Thailand and in more parts of S.E Asia.

Sovereign risk is a killer though you are correct...get some tax treaties with Thailand Kruddy!

If you were a true blue EW believer then yes is the answer. Wave 5 is then followed by a b c . Very few hold to it so, however. Then this 12345 would be wave 1 of a higher wave ( hopes) and the abc would be the new wave 2.

Nick Radge might be able to comment with more knowledge on EW than I possess.

gg

 

[Rob 17]

Looks like CVN is getting sold off. Would be nice to get an update on testing which is over due.

The JV partner has been sold off heavily over the past week.

I think this will continue to head down until we get an update. Hopefully full development of the NSE field is still on the cards.

Do you own research..

 

[Johntf]

Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf

The announcement says nothing of value. I don't see that it will halt or slow the share price decline.

 

[Dukey]

The announcement says nothing of value. I don't see that it will halt or slow the share price decline.

unfortunately I have to agree - as much as there is nothing particularly negative in the ann. - I expect that in this fickle market the sell off will continue.


Assets still there ....
(... Geez - I'm starting to sound like a broken record with that one - have said the same on a few threads lately)
-dukey
(holding cvn)

 

[INORE]

unfortunately I have to agree - as much as there is nothing particularly negative in the ann. - I expect that in this fickle market the sell off will continue.


Assets still there ....
(... Geez - I'm starting to sound like a broken record with that one - have said the same on a few threads lately)
-dukey
(holding cvn)

but i do think that for the holders that may have been thinking of selling because they thought there may be a leak on some bad news coming... may now decide to keep holding.

 

[Rob 17]

Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf

I sold out of this stock a while back but was looking to re-enter and kept pulling out my order.

I like to look at the performance of the JV partners stock price as a guide to CVN's direction. Seems like CVN held up well as JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates were buying their stake. Now that were in a bear market and many traders have taken big hits i can see no hurry to get bac in.

Still like stock long term. It would be nice if CVN didnt have to rely on the Thailand drilling so much.

Im no expert. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

 

[JTLP]

What

The

Fruitcake

Was

That

Announcement?

Seriously? O RLY CVN...thanks for that crappy update. One could only assume they put it out to ease some holders minds. It has taken quite a hit (unfortunately) and they must have been worried about this (now they got a big boy on board )

I'm very bullish on CVN but that was a crap announcement.

And one more VERY IMPORTANT THING:
Wasn't there plan to have 20,000 bopd (gross...CVN 8,000 net) by years end?

Whats this reduced 15,000 figure? eek im predicting another smashing tomorrow unfortunately.

 

[Dutchy3]

This one now might reasonably be finding support at these levels ... ready for a move back to 70 ish

 

[Go Nuke]

Indeed.

I noted the morning star on my chart too.
And its a bullish engulfing pattern for Wednesdays trading.
Combined with the fact that the MACD looks ready to cross and head back up..it looks very bullish indeed.

The only problem with candlestick charting imo, is that we lag behind the U.S.
So whatever happens in the U.S can throw my candlestick charts out the window

Though my thoughts are that it could go as far as 58-60c based on a Fib extention of 38.2% and support/resistance.

 

[1234]

Charting/TA is funny.
The only reason CVN dropped is on fundies. If environmental approval had come thru 6 months ago as first thought - the last 3 wells would not have been drilled and the L44 offset - multiwell would be up and running by now. Full field development would be underway and cvn would be breaking new highs daily..

I don't really care much for the charts - butterfly dojis' or morning stars, facts are we're still a few weeks out from a (very) good result, which will push skywards - If the US doesn't slide off the face of the Earth beforehand..

I use charts as a historical tool. Volume speaks more to me than most indicators.. Loose lips sink ships - They can also raise the Titanic... The patterns I look for are those before ann's, relative to the content of the ann..

There will always be anticipation, manipulation and circumstance which make the charts what they are..... End of the day - if CVN don't pull oil out of the ground, the chart's only going one way..

Happy to hold..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Charting/TA is funny.
The only reason CVN dropped is on fundies. If environmental approval had come thru 6 months ago as first thought - the last 3 wells would not have been drilled and the L44 offset - multiwell would be up and running by now. Full field development would be underway and cvn would be breaking new highs daily..

I don't really care much for the charts - butterfly dojis' or morning stars, facts are we're still a few weeks out from a (very) good result, which will push skywards - If the US doesn't slide off the face of the Earth beforehand..

I use charts as a historical tool. Volume speaks more to me than most indicators.. Loose lips sink ships - They can also raise the Titanic... The patterns I look for are those before ann's, relative to the content of the ann..

There will always be anticipation, manipulation and circumstance which make the charts what they are..... End of the day - if CVN don't pull oil out of the ground, the chart's only going one way..

Happy to hold..

1234 you've said it all mate, absolutely spot on. Watch volume and price action, listen out and go on your remaining gut instinct. The amygdala rules ok.

gg

 

[JTLP]

CVN managed to secure insto buying which was good...would now like to see some other/more insto buying at these low prices.

Although the tax regime is quite the pickle to determine, CVN should have some very nice cashflow figures at the end of this quarter...and are running at about 3,000 BOPD (this figure is expected to double in 5 months time )

They must be drilling some pretty big targets in the next few months to choke that figure out...let's hope we can see it!

They also have a fair bit of stuff in the pipelines that seems to be fairly slow in getting to the market:

- Application for 2 blocks with Pearl Energy (Sole Bidders)
- Indonesian Study
- S.E Asia Interests (lets look for other projects in this region!)
- Aero targets with SUR (August I believe?)

 

[JTLP]

MORE OLIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! (Oil for you english speaking people)

The NSE-A1 well is currently free flowing from a newly discovered, approximately 17 meter thick upper volcanic/volcanic clastic reservoir at a restricted rate of approximately 1,245 bopd. Current water cut is approximately 0.5% and flowing tubing and casing head pressures are high at 210 psig @26/64" choke and 340 psig @26/64" choke, respectively.

Its about time we got some more oil into the coffers.

Re-cap of the announcement shows the following:

NSE-A1 New Pool Discovery Well (60% WI & Operator) - newly discovered, approximately 17 meter thick upper volcanic/volcanic clastic reservoir at a restricted rate of approximately 1,245 bopd (i like that it is restricted )

NSE-A3 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Finish testing in 7 days

L44-C Vertical Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Completed within 14 days

L33-3 Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator) - Abandoned but 2 other sites to be drilled later this year

NS9-H1 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Abandoned - failure to encounter main reservoir objective

POE: Full scale development of the NSE field and adjacent areas of resource potential, with up to 19 wells, has now commenced. Production is anticipated to ramp up significantly over the coming months as a result of this drilling program
_________

Overall this is pretty positive to me. NS9-H1 is a bit disappointing to see nothing (as it is an appraisal well) but overall wasn't expecting much from the Wildcat (L33-3).

Still 2 other appraisal wells to go...perhaps an ann in about 20 days? (I always add on about a week from the completed testing dates)...

JTLP

 

[Dukey]

Great!! That won't hurt at all!!

Lets hope NSE A3 adds more oil to make up for those abandoned wells.

Can't wait to see CVN back she belongs - up near her highs of ~75-80c!!

-G'luck all holders - dukey

 

[1234]

Seems the Canadian market likes it.

POE up +20% in early trade on big volume.

Nice to see them getting results from other areas of exploration.

Reserves should take a nice jump next year as a result..