CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[MS+Tradesim]

Muddy,

I don't see Thai govt/military making problems for CVN joint ventures. Thailand is a net importer of 660,000boepd. Oil/gas development in Thailand is very important to them as they currently rely heavily on neighbouring countries including Myanmar (Burma), which isn't stable. Their energy demand is rising but apart from the CVN/POE new discovery there are no new significant finds in Thailand.

Check out the links I posted a page or two back.

 

[Rob_ee]

So what do you think now GG ....

Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???

That $1 mark may be closer than we think @.775 now so a retrace is probably on cards today with 5 hrs to go
If it closes higher today I'll be happy whatever the price

Love this stock for previously stated reasons

Congrats to the believers

 

[Miner]

Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN. I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN. Wasn't it just a short time ago they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand. Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.

Dear Muddy Waters
Good observation. I do not hold CVN and always wanted to hold when the price will fall ! The price has gone up to 74 cents today contrary to my wish.
Regarding Thailand military regime etc my comments are :

• Thailand is strongly controlled by the King.
• Thailand has vested interested on the output of CVN. Who wants to kill a goose laying golden eggs ?
• Thailand military regime is much better than Pakistan. Please look how much BHPB Petroleum is investing in Pakistan.
• West Africa and South Africa are having much worse situation and level of corruption. The companies are still flourishing there.
• China has one of the worst human rights situation and it is the darling nation of the whole world.
• India is notorious for corruption, lack of infrastruture. It is the second best growing nation even 1 billion population can not match with cricket skills of Aussies

So please do not get panicked with military regime and hence CVN's future. Relax and just see CVN is roaring (I do not see my wish will ever be fulfiled to own it)

Regards

 

[wildmanchris]

So what do you think now GG ....

Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???

That $1 mark may be closer than we think @.775 now so a retrace is probably on cards today with 5 hrs to go
If it closes higher today I'll be happy whatever the price

Love this stock for previously stated reasons

Congrats to the believers

With all due respect - the guy wouldnt be in if he didnt belive. I've seen many people lose lots of money when they dont balance their belief with weighing up the potential negatives as well.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Rob,

It is a wide range on relatively low volume. I would now expect a sell-off next week to take us back towards 70 maybe even high 60s.

I am a believer and a long-term (into the future holder) but that has no relevance to the short-term price action and the way traders can change sentiment on a stock. I also would advise caution, but am looking for further growth.

 

[Riles]

Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered.

Regards

Well we just hit line 4 again Johnnyg.
I guess it's in anticipation of good results from WB1, so it's speculatively driven at this time.

Actual results will be the key. If WB-1 is productive it means a whole new area is open for business.
If it's a dud, we could well see another retrace similar to the last time the price came down from line 4 - around 30%.
In the meantime we still have another 10 days or so to kill before testing is finished for WB-1, so this rally seems a bit premature, so maybe it's not all about the next well...

 

[hyperterminal]

Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN. I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN. Wasn't it just a short time ago they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand. Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.

muddy,
being someone who has lived and worked in thailand I dont believe the military regime has any impact on the stability of thailand whatsoever. Thailand has had coups more times then I can remember in the last 30 years and the vast majority have been bloodless and cause little distruption to everyday business.

The king has given his blessing for the last coup which bascially gives rise to calm throughout the country. One thing you will learn about miltary coups in thailand is that they are not run by the military rather the king, military leaders dont sneeze without speaking to the king first.. I was there two days after the latest coup and besides the smiling soilders on tanks you wouldnt know there was a coup, they closed down a few bars early for a week or so then back to BAU...

Oil stability is prime concern for thailand and even with a small production levels delivered currently by CVN they would like to keep it flowing, also from what I can tell CVN and POE are highly resepcted for the positive impact they have had on the local community employing about 110 people, spending in the local economy and donating to local schools and communities..

Local goverment officals will be quite aware of this....I cant foresee any geo-political or instability causing CVN any issues in the immediate future.... If on the other hand they where drilling in some areas of africa at the moment it would be a different story!

hyper

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So what do you think now GG ....

Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???

That $1 mark may be closer than we think @.775 now so a retrace is probably on cards today with 5 hrs to go
If it closes higher today I'll be happy whatever the price

Love this stock for previously stated reasons

Congrats to the believers

I cannot see any instos thus far. Its now well after 10am in Queensland and nearly time for a siesta, and then a walk on the beach, and afternoon drinks, then dinner and a read of todays Fin Review. Its so nice to see the world in the rear view mirror. So I'll check the volume and price this evening and post over the weekend.

gg

 

[Nasdaq]

Does anyone know what the XT code on the course of sale mean? Is it something really obvious ? CVN has had good success this really with another good drilling program to come. Let's hope she keeps going.

 

[JTLP]

Does anyone know what the XT code on the course of sale mean? Is it something really obvious ? CVN has had good success this really with another good drilling program to come. Let's hope she keeps going.

From memory i think XT is a crosstrade...
An example (please correct me if im wrong) is when people transfer shares between trusts or things of the like...

 

[Rob_ee]

Well closed better than I had hoped.
After 7 green candles in a row, at a time when our market has been down overall and the Dow suffered several triple digit loses ... a good performance overall

Sooner or later the profit takers and short termers will bail out and the price may well retreat back to the mid 60's like someone suggested.
In the absence of my crystal ball I have no way of guessing and therefore will not sell... even in the 70's its cheaper than all the current proven assets, nevermind future discoveries.

There have been a few comments about the LOW ????? volume.

Another 6 mil changed hands today.... this is low volume. ????????
On my "Oilers" watch list there are 15 stocks and none trade anywhere near CVN's daily turnover, and some are quite impressive

And GG .. I fervently hope you are right when you say that you see no evidence of insto buying.
If thats true then GREAT (whoo hoo etc) because sooner or later the instos will have to take note and then we should see some real movement.

With a current market cap of 500Mil this junior explorer should go places.

This baby is for my retirement fund.
If it does drop to mid 60's then thats fine ... I'll be buying lots more

Happy new year ...

 

[JTLP]

From memory i think XT is a crosstrade...
An example (please correct me if im wrong) is when people transfer shares between trusts or things of the like...

LOL im so out of it. Does it mean dealt with by the same broker?
Sorry buddy i got my N00b hat on. Not L33t at this stuff yet =)

 

[Rob 17]

I'll be watching POE (carnarvon's joint venture partner) very closely on the
Canadian stock exchange for any clues as to CVN’s direction. www.tsx.com

People jumping in now are looking for big things from CVN and if the results don’t come to fruition they will jump ship. At this stage I’m happy to hold for the med term.

I’ll be even more happy when the company has production peaking.



DYOR

 

[camaybay]

a chart to ponder. although the SP is strong, the chart suggests to me that there will be a correction. then " i'll be back" in. been good so far, but as someone posted the price is getting out of the DT market and may well settle.


cheers

dyor

 

[muddy waters]

Thanks guys for your reassurances on political stability in Thailand.

Personally, I got in early and purchased consistently over the last couple of years. I have since pulled out my stake and am now playing with the leftovers. I would like to leave the table with something!

Like gg i am a trustee of a smf (not into risky investments????) and have to protect the funds of the trust. (CVN like most stocks dropped 20-25% last August - but shot straight up thereafter) I actually sold some non-performers at the btm and purchased CVN @ 0.15c with the proceeds.

Don't kid yourselves the US is in, or heading for, a recession, Japan is dropping back towards deflation, Europe is sliding sideways, black gold is escalating in price, AUS rates are on the rise (9-10%) & CVN is a shooting star.

What goes up ..........

I don't think now is the time to be rejoicing - or am I just a pessimist?

You can never pick the top [or btm] of the market but wouldn't it be good to buy back at a 20-25% discount. AHHH! what the heck lets ride the thai tiger all the way!

 

[daveinchi]

Guys, i seem to be feeling a lot of angst, when there is no reason to be like that.
CVN have gone from a sub 10c stock producing 300 bopd to a 10,000 bopd producer and a success rate of over 75%.!!
With oil at an all time high, and many pundits predicting $125 a barrel, this is the sort of company you should be holding for the rest of 2008.
Now is the timt to hold something like cvn , not sell and give someone else a 50% profit allmost guaranteed.
Each to ther own, but cvn are sitting on a massive find.They havnt even scratched the surface. A takeover from a major is not out of the question in these times of oil production falling and the scramble to find more of it.

 

[INORE]

yep couldnt agree more...CVN have all the fundamentals and after following so many of YT's fe hits i have the feeling that the people who bought early will take profits at any time but this is different, i have traded a couple of other oilers over the years and these guys have the fundamentals and now the media...just wait till feb / march when they start announcing transport and refinery production increases along with the many drill results due out between now and then....i'm holding my 12 months like a few others i know and will maybe think about a trade in CVN come august....

 

[ktrianta]

What do people mean by insto's being involved?

Looking at their top 6 shareholders they include:

HSBC Custody Nominnes

ANZ Nominees

Macquarie Bank

National Nominees

Citicorp Nominees

Don't these qualify as major institutions?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

CVN seems a bit oversold at present but has good support about 60c. I'd prefer to see it trend sideways on this kind of volume or else go up again on higher volume.

Thanks for all the fundamental info. Chart enclosed.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade as I'm in it !!

I'll hold

gg

 

[oldblue]

ktrianta

It's an indication but not necessarily. They may be holding as nominee for one, a few or many beneficial owners. Could be local or overseas.