CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[johnnyg]

There didnt seem to be to much to get threw that .70cent door. If it can close above there it should act as support now.

 

[Dukey]

There didnt seem to be to much to get threw that .70cent door. If it can close above there it should act as support now.

Yep - nice steady move north yesterday and today - and smallish volume is good really - I interpret that as meaning few holders are interested in selling at this point - presumably because they believe there are more increases to come....that bodes well for the future SP.
slow steady rises will beat a knife-spike any day for me....

.... maybe I listened too hard when my mum said ' playing with knives is dangerous!!! ' ....

 

[Rob_ee]

All time high today and holding up well on a down day.

Promising drill result with more to come.
Its nice to be on a winner , Oil seems the way to go onto the future ...more and more demand--- less supply --- rising stock prices even in this uncertain panicky market.

Happy to have this as a long term hold

 

[JTLP]

Somebody posted a brilliant schedule of Drills to come on another forum.

It seems that if you held CVN for another 12 months you could potentially be a very happy person. I will try and track down the schedule

 

[MS+Tradesim]

The schedule is in their most recent presentation. page 20:

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/AGMAddressPresentation291107.pdf

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Somebody posted a brilliant schedule of Drills to come on another forum.

It seems that if you held CVN for another 12 months you could potentially be a very happy person. I will try and track down the schedule

I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.

I enclose a daily chart from Sept 07 to today.

Technically it is still making higher highs and higher lows and trending up, as can be seen from the upper part of the chart.

However the volume is disappointing. The red line in the lower part of the chart tracks the lowering volumes.

If the volume increases with large ranges and lower closes beware. Prophets can be wrong.

gg

 

[Rob 17]

I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.


Why is this a bad sign???

CVN is rising steadily on results unlike other shares. I wouldn’t be buying at this point if I was looking for a quick profit but I was lucky to get on board months ago.

I’m no oil expert but the latest announcement makes for interesting reading.

"Live oil was observed at the surface while drilling at 1,503, 1,556, 1,565 and 1,585 meters."

Definition of Live oil - Oil containing dissolved gas in solution that may be released from solution at surface conditions. Source: Schlumberger

My main concern would be getting production to full capacity so that when the accounts are released the figures are impressive

Always DYOR

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.


Why is this a bad sign???

CVN is rising steadily on results unlike other shares. I wouldn’t be buying at this point if I was looking for a quick profit but I was lucky to get on board months ago.

I’m no oil expert but the latest announcement makes for interesting reading.

"Live oil was observed at the surface while drilling at 1,503, 1,556, 1,565 and 1,585 meters."

Definition of Live oil - Oil containing dissolved gas in solution that may be released from solution at surface conditions. Source: Schlumberger

My main concern would be getting production to full capacity so that when the accounts are released the figures are impressive

Always DYOR

I knew a broker who every now and then used say " its coming out in xyz tipsheet tomorrow, we're going to sell today".

And he was usually correct.

I can't see any AMP, other instos, BHP, C Suisse etc. buying in at this point. Why not?

Tipsheets tip so many stocks in a month you'd need a credit of 1 mill just to stay with them for 2 months buying .

I've got a bucketload CVN which I bought for bugger all. I'm happy to wait and see at this point but I'll be out if that trendline is broken.

gg

 

[Rob_ee]

I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.

gg

Why would that usually be a bad sign ??? in the short term at least ?

With Hartleys appraisal of above $ 1.30 .. still a long way of that and Fat Prophets list this in their top 5 picks for 08.

With all the subscribers buying it should continue upwards to somewhere near that price before a sell of is triggered somewhere (perhaps) near $1.30.

And there is still a lot very promissing exploratory upside potential which may drive the price a lot higher above $ 1.30

And Oil will probably trade in the $90 range for a while

As for the volume .... we are in the holiday mode still and were for most of December .. not to mention with the Yanks stuffing things up with their sub prime greed a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines in fear.

Like all oilers volume is driven by drilling upgrades and there is a little time lag between each ... still this trades in the millions every day ( 10 mil last 2 days)so there is lots of liquidity.

At the moment this is plaqued by pesky day traders happy with their 1-2 cent daily gain, as more oil is discovered some institutions may step in (hopefully) which should act as good support.

In any case I have been accumulationg since the 40's and will happily continue as long as the trend continues upwards.

At the moment they have access to 10000 bop and at 70 c its still appears cheap based on some of the other overpriced non-producers out there.

Occasionally the price will dip on news delays where the impatient can' hack the pressure BUT based on what they are currently capable of producing it still appears cheap at todays prices.

Happy to hold this long term despite the daily fluctuations

Rob

 

[johnnyg]

Good to see different views on charts. Heres my daily chart from Sep 07 also.

Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered. For the past 2 weeks CVN has been trading in the middle trend channel. As you can see quite a few times line 2 provided support. Todays close is just about line 3. Will be interesting to see if it will provide support and for trading to continue in the 3rd channel.


2nd pic is a closeup of the last 2 weeks. Good consoildation between .625 and .67. Yesterday pushed threw slight resistance @ .67 and then again today with a strong push threw .70. Should now provide support.

Interested to hear other opinions/thoughts chartwise.

Regards

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Why would that usually be a bad sign ??? in the short term at least ?

With Hartleys appraisal of above $ 1.30 .. still a long way of that and Fat Prophets list this in their top 5 picks for 08.

With all the subscribers buying it should continue upwards to somewhere near that price before a sell of is triggered somewhere (perhaps) near $1.30.

And there is still a lot very promissing exploratory upside potential which may drive the price a lot higher above $ 1.30

And Oil will probably trade in the $90 range for a while

As for the volume .... we are in the holiday mode still and were for most of December .. not to mention with the Yanks stuffing things up with their sub prime greed a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines in fear.

Like all oilers volume is driven by drilling upgrades and there is a little time lag between each ... still this trades in the millions every day ( 10 mil last 2 days)so there is lots of liquidity.

At the moment this is plaqued by pesky day traders happy with their 1-2 cent daily gain, as more oil is discovered some institutions may step in (hopefully) which should act as good support.

In any case I have been accumulationg since the 40's and will happily continue as long as the trend continues upwards.

At the moment they have access to 10000 bop and at 70 c its still appears cheap based on some of the other overpriced non-producers out there.

Occasionally the price will dip on news delays where the impatient can' hack the pressure BUT based on what they are currently capable of producing it still appears cheap at todays prices.

Happy to hold this long term despite the daily fluctuations

Rob

The smart money may be waiting to offload their profits at the top, and then buy in further down from weaker holders.

I take your points though, but look at the charts closely over the next week or so.

I'll be overjoyed if it hits 1.30, even more so if the instos buy in in some numbers.

Thus far I don't see any buyers pushing it up.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Good to see different views on charts. Heres my daily chart from Sep 07 also.

Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered. For the past 2 weeks CVN has been trading in the middle trend channel. As you can see quite a few times line 2 provided support. Todays close is just about line 3. Will be interesting to see if it will provide support and for trading to continue in the 3rd channel.


2nd pic is a closeup of the last 2 weeks. Good consoildation between .625 and .67. Yesterday pushed threw slight resistance @ .67 and then again today with a strong push threw .70. Should now provide support.

Interested to hear other opinions/thoughts chartwise.

Regards

Thanks johnnyg

I agree, I have a similar chart saved but when I looked closely at the volume I became more cautious. Thus the post.

gg

 

[daveinchi]

Garpel
I think you are bieng very trader like in your way of thinking.
ie you are looking at volume as an indication of selling, despite the fact that the jv, keeps pulling up oil and the ta is showing an upward trend.
Come on, get a grip. As the price goes up, then there are less people attracted as it becomes more expensive for most punters to get a descent parcel.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Garpel
I think you are bieng very trader like in your way of thinking.
ie you are looking at volume as an indication of selling, despite the fact that the jv, keeps pulling up oil and the ta is showing an upward trend.
Come on, get a grip. As the price goes up, then there are less people attracted as it becomes more expensive for most punters to get a descent parcel.

Thanks daveinchi,

My take on that would be that from now on I'm not looking at punters like us pulling the price up. If its too expensive you don't buy. If you don't buy there become more sellers than buyers. If there are more sellers than buyers, the price falls.

It happens with bananas, BHP and CVN. So I'm not hoping anything really.

I'd like to see the instos and not the poor old clients of the tipsheets buying this stock up. Otherwise the sellers will come in and the price will fall.

gg

 

[daveinchi]

garpel
It really matters little who is buying. The facts are ,that as the jv keeps pulling oil out the price will go up.
Period , end of discussion. All the rest of the ins and outs mean zero.
I Have no doubt that we will be seeing one dollar plus in the next few months.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

garpel
It really matters little who is buying. The facts are ,that as the jv keeps pulling oil out the price will go up.
Period , end of discussion. All the rest of the ins and outs mean zero.
I Have no doubt that we will be seeing one dollar plus in the next few months.

I'll drink to that, and I do hope the price continues to rise.

Just watch the charts though. I've never been to Thailand but I'm sure bull**** smells the same over there as it does here.

I had a recent weather bureau, satellite, tell me it was dry over where I live, and we were in the middle of a 3 inch downpour in 4 hours.

gg

 

[daveinchi]

Garpal.
The fact is, that most people have fear jumping on their backs at night, telling them to sell when they are sitting on a profit or a loss.
But try and look at it another way.
Whilst someone sold today at 67c fearing the worst,.... someone else bought, in the KNOWLEDGE that this year will see one dollar plus.
Forget completely what i am writing ,or for that matter what anyone else here writes, but concern yourself only with the facts of cvn and its ability to carry on hitting oil. No Doubt in my mind where we are heading, and i dont listen to the trader noise of the ifs, buts and maybe,s of a chart.

 

[Rob 17]

Interesting to see weather CVN will hold above .70 today. I think it can find support at this price as it didnt rocket up after the last (record) result.

Oil and Gold shares are going to be the next "hot" stocks IMO. People will want to jump on board. As i said in a previous post i wouldnt be buying at this point for a quick profit but anything is welcomed.

DYOR

 

[wildmanchris]

I'll drink to that, and I do hope the price continues to rise.

Just watch the charts though. I've never been to Thailand but I'm sure bull**** smells the same over there as it does here.

I had a recent weather bureau, satellite, tell me it was dry over where I live, and we were in the middle of a 3 inch downpour in 4 hours.

gg

Im holding CVN, and as much as I would like to think that the price will keep rising, I have seen loads of times that people reading reports and putting their hard earned coin into a stock (deservedly so with this one), then soon see a large holder that bought in a few months earlier come in and crush the price will a sell order to take profits.

The fundametals are good, and the outlook is great - but I believe GG is right pointing out the technicals of the chart can sometimes alert you to something that could potentially go against where the fundamentals are driving the price to.

I work with alot of technical traders, and cant bring myself to trade off the charts but have seen many people be right trading charts against the trends of the fundamentals.

Long term I am holding, and am cautiously optomistic about the short term
price movement.

 

[muddy waters]

Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN. I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN. Wasn't it just a short time ago they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand. Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.