Current returns for 2008/09 financial year?

[nomore4s]

2300% annual return HOW??

lol, results from 1 month of trading are always going to skew the annual return. 2300% pa based off 1 months trading is hardly realistic, as Brad had said it is more from the purple patch that the market has had lately.

those returns cant be possible just on stocks

Why not?

 

[Aussiest]

i take it mr riley dont want a live trade thread opened for him as its easier to type in here how great we are instead

I'd be tempted to post in a 'live trade' thread

 

[skyQuake]

Have a look at how hard a few of the property trusts have bounced from the lows; eg CER, CNP, MDT etc and you'll see how these returns are easy if you got in early.

Just that everyone's a genius on a bull market! (Or a bear trap rally)

 

[nunthewiser]

Have a look at how hard a few of the property trusts have bounced from the lows; eg CER, CNP, MDT etc and you'll see how these returns are easy if you got in early.

Just that everyone's a genius on a bull market! (Or a bear trap rally)

yeah not disagreeing that whatsoever at all

its just a poster here was saying at one moment he had got 3k together for an IB account as he under 21 then the next mo he talking about a 100k account , i just figured he was using a demo/papertrade setup

for sure theres been plenny easy gains of late and i dare say we will see a few " what happened ?" posts shortly

 

[Loose]

Testing a system &
Using real cash
The FMG trade on my thread was a signal from this system
The system still holds the trade but i have since closed it in my account due to other reasons

As i stated in my thread, i have not been adding new buys because of the fact that i have been changing brokers

Once it's all sorted out and the system has been validated i will start posting live trades if anybody is interested

The reason for me posting was to not show off a trading system - it was to demonstrate the fact that the market has moved so far in such a short time that anybody could make money

The system does not return big results like that consistently, it is just because of the way the market was during april

Agreed Beamstas, April has been great for most, almost like stealing

Jono big returns are there if you look,

Example PBG low of .14 in Feb to current SP of .82 thats 585% from what I would consider a fairly safe play. (No I didn't get in but that's another story)
Others here would have more examples. Are you just trading the bounce, rolling the dice or do you have longer options with fundamental support?

 

[skyQuake]

i dare say we will see a few " what happened ?" posts shortly

haha definitely!

If those posters can turn a 3k acct into a 100k acct with leverage i wonder how long will it take them to turn that into a -50k acct

 

[ivant]

Haha what a post! MrC (man what should I call you in this forum? lol) trading is simple as peanuts. what are you talking about. Think about it, March to today, in hindsight I can build 1k with no leverage to 5 billion. It's all THAT easy.

It is easy until you blow up anthonyriley. Livermore blew up. Many times. He is only one of the best traders in the world! And do you know where the trick lies, and the difficulty? Adjusting to different market conditions. How do you differentiate a bull market from a bear market rally in a bull? I can tell you 100% that a 20% rally doesn't make it a bull, and even a 200 SMA crossover not always defines it!

 

[ivant]

yeah not disagreeing that whatsoever at all

its just a poster here was saying at one moment he had got 3k together for an IB account as he under 21 then the next mo he talking about a 100k account , i just figured he was using a demo/papertrade setup

for sure theres been plenny easy gains of late and i dare say we will see a few " what happened ?" posts shortly

Doesn't it make me feel better about my shorts! Ha!

 

[cutz]

Testing a system &
Using real cash
The FMG trade on my thread was a signal from this system
The system still holds the trade but i have since closed it in my account due to other reasons

Hi beamstas,

You mentioned you had to get out of FMG due to other reasons but the system still holds it, do you think this is a fundamental flaw in a paper trading system. i.e. in real life you couldn’t hold on but on the practice system it's still on.

I ask because this week I’ve started intraday trading a volatile stock with no success, I’ve moved onto the stock from trading the options to take advantage of the lower spreads and lower slippage, I’m finding trading the stock to be a lot more difficult, I can’t put my finger on why.

Will paper trading actually better prepare me to trade the real thing or will the emotional detachment cloud my judgment?

Has anyone out there actually moved from a paper trading system to real life trading with no change in the way they trade and with results that were similar to what they were getting on paper?

Hope my questions makes sense.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Has anyone out there actually moved from a paper trading system to real life trading with no change in the way they trade and with results that were similar to what they were getting on paper?

I will answer for everyone...

NO.

 

[MichaelD]

Has anyone out there actually moved from a paper trading system to real life trading with no change in the way they trade and with results that were similar to what they were getting on paper?

Yes.

(and no).

Yes - My most recent system went from paper trading to real trading with methods and results that remained consistent.

(and no) - Several unexpected wrinkles did appear when trading with real money, all of which were analyzed and learned from and incorporated into the plan. Most of these related to finer points of trade execution in the real market which simply weren't apparent when paper trading. Several of these related to the unanticipated level of stress of trading within a tight timeframe when multiple trades signalled at the same time.

On top of this, it's a feedback loop - I'm now approaching 100 live trades with this system (+ 100 paper trades) and I have several "gut" ideas for how to improve the system, mainly focussed around how to better control the losses and how to increase trade frequency. These were not apparent when paper trading, but became very obvious when trading with real money.

Since I have a good dataset (no violations of trading rules and only one bona fide trading error - one position size too small) I can go back and rigorously apply these "gut" ideas to see if they help and possibly incorporate them into the next 100 trades.

And then rinse and repeat ad infinitum.

 

[cutz]

Thanks guys,

MichaelD , I noticed you also made mention of wrinkles appearing in the real market from the execution side, are you referring to the fact that when you place your trades you’re actually printing your own bars, something that doesn’t happen when you paper trade.

Are futures more appropriate to day trade due to the fact that it's possible to trade in and out without leaving to many footprints?

 

[MichaelD]

MichaelD , I noticed you also made mention of wrinkles appearing in the real market from the execution side, are you referring to the fact that when you place your trades you’re actually printing your own bars, something that doesn’t happen when you paper trade.

Some of the things I have become aware of;

1. It's not that hard to move the market with even fairly small position sizes in some shares, even those in the ASX200. Membership of the ASX200 does not automatically equate to plenty of liquidity.

2. Paper trading gives you perfect fills at perfect times, and that's not always the case in the real market.

3. Execution stress is much higher with real money.

4. Practice does help - the more we trade the system, the more routine the executions get and the closer to perfect the executions get.

 

[cutz]

Hi MichaelD, Thanks for your time.

I actually experienced all those points you mentioned, I normally trade options but this week I thought I try my hand day trading the real thing due to an unexpected assignment, anyhow the stress of execution, especially getting out of a long trade rattled me, the price fell away so I quickly cancelled, I waited and eventually got out after 4, I came out just short of square including brokerage due to a small gap up on the close.

Anyhow due to that experience ( along with a couple of others) I’ve decided day trading stocks isn’t for me, but what I’m getting at is I’ve held stocks for years, I’ve comfortably traded options for nearly 2 years , when it comes down to day trading stocks I fall to pieces , how does someone with no experience come away from paper trading without getting blown up.

 

[anthonyriley]

Anyone willing to share there methods of picking a trade and when to enter it . . .and i guess when to exit.

 

[jono1887]

Anyone willing to share there methods of picking a trade and when to enter it . . .and i guess when to exit.

buy when its going down :: hahah, if its cheaper must be good value right??

Looks like the markets going to make back its gains this week so buying anything in general will yield some returns this week...

 

[anthonyriley]

buy when its going down :: hahah, if its cheaper must be good value right??

Looks like the markets going to make back its gains this week so buying anything in general will yield some returns this week...

Im thinking more along the lines of technical indicators.
Anyone use these. . . .bar analysis, trend, phase and geometric analysis ?

 

[Aussiest]

I've always wanted a crystal ball. Anyone have one?

 

[jono1887]

I've always wanted a crystal ball. Anyone have one?

I've got one, I'll sell it to you for the very low price of only 5 payments of 99.95 + 29.95 P&H ::
Pay now with credit card and i'll even throw in a set of free steak knives!!

 

[Mr J]

Anyone willing to share there methods of picking a trade and when to enter it . . .and i guess when to exit.

Buy the troughs, sell the peaks. That's all I do.

Im thinking more along the lines of technical indicators.
Anyone use these. . . .bar analysis, trend, phase and geometric analysis ?

Honestly, not really. I'll take a glance at the chart and decide what I think is going on. I don't give it much conscious thought.