CTO - Citigold Corporation

[oldblue]

Perhaps it's time to again air the view of an old Charters Towers' resident who told me, a few years ago, that while the town's gold deposits are particularly rich - said to be the best in Australia - they have a history of being difficult to work. I've forgotten the details now but depth of the deposits and water problems came into the story.
One would have thought that time and modern technology might have solved these problems by now?



Disc: Not holding.

 

[jman2007]

I can't work these figures out

Quotes from March Quarterly Report:
- Gold sold attributable to the quarter was 2,522 ounces.
- Gold production of 25,000 ounces in calendar 2009 is planned.
- This is an annualised rate of 60,000 ounces per year.
- The longer term goal of the Charters Towers gold project is an annual gold
production of 300,000 ounces of gold per year.

It's a shrewdly written effort to try and make the production figures sound better than they really are. The key term they use is the "Annualised" 60,000oz forecasted for 2009. That's like me saying for one day of the year, I made $1,000,000 which equates to an "annualised" income of $365,000,000 for the year, even though for every other day of that year I might have only made $50.

I hardly think that the actual forecasted figure of 25,000oz for the year qualifies as a "highlight" for the Quarter. The 25,000oz is a forward-looking statement, and to use it outside its proper context is misleading. Even to reach this figure for the year, it is going to require an enormous increase in production

 

[Sean K]

It's a shrewdly written effort to try and make the production figures sound better than they really are. The key term they use is the "Annualised" 60,000oz forecasted for 2009. That's like me saying for one day of the year, I made $1,000,000 which equates to an "annualised" income of $365,000,000 for the year, even though for every other day of that year I might have only made $50.

I hardly think that the actual forecasted figure of 25,000oz for the year qualifies as a "highlight" for the Quarter. The 25,000oz is a forward-looking statement, and to use it outside its proper context is misleading. Even to reach this figure for the year, it is going to require an enormous increase in production

Jman, you think they've being deceptive here?

I have had my suspiscion hairs raised for some time, based on the 50m oz target somewhere down in the core.

After a couple of other well known failures in this sector after high promises, I am skeptic number one.

 

[jman2007]

Jman, you think they've being deceptive here?

I have had my suspiscion hairs raised for some time, based on the 50m oz target somewhere down in the core.

After a couple of other well known failures in this sector after high promises, I am skeptic number one.

Hard to say if they're being deliberately deceptive kennas, but clearly they are attempting to pump up the upside from what was a rather paltry production result for the Quarter. A major risk I can see is the cash burn rate for the underground development they're doing, clearly they've been running very close to the wire as is indicated from the very small cash-on-hand figures from the Half Yearly and latest Quarterly, although the latter seemingly does exclude the latest Dubai-backed raising.

After all the previous promises and targets, you have to wonder if they have the necessary capital and corporate structure to successfully mine these deposits - which is clearly being factored into the sp by the maket. It's very difficult to confidently say for sure what is going on with this company, but there are clearly many questions that need to be asked.

Oldblue's contact in the Charters' Tower area is probably rocking on his rocking chair, gaurding his 3oz nugget and chuckling at all of us.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

CTO ... while the fundamentals may be somewhat suspect,
technically the CTO chart is looking promising, with
trading volumes up significantly, over the past 6 months !~!

Our astroanalysis also tells us to expect several time cycles,
to come into play for CTO, over the next 2 weeks ... these should
trigger some upside, especially around 26052009, when 3 time cycles
form a positive cluster, along the TIME axis .....

..... and the last 2 days of last week gave a us a harami with
a doji, which tells us to be watchful for a change in trend !~!

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[So_Cynical]

OMG Paul's backing it...what the hell do we make of that?????????

He has a bout a 50% hit ratio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All i know is CTO is well and truly in the buy zone....im not buying as i have
a great average down opportunity with MDL...as it's already ITM.

 

[Sean K]

Hi folks,

CTO ... while the fundamentals may be somewhat suspect,
technically the CTO chart is looking promising, with
trading volumes up significantly, over the past 6 months !~!

..... and the last 2 days of last week gave a us a harami with
a doji, which tells us to be watchful for a change in trend !~!

have a great day

paul



=====

Isn't falling price and high volume a bearish thing Paul?

Agree on possible trend change though, and hitting long term support around 16-17c.

Could be a turnaround story, but in general, the trend is your friend imo, and this is only going one way atm.

 

[Sweet Synergy]

Have to agree with Kennas (writing at the same time ).

This is looking kinda bearish IMO (sorry Paul) ... chart appears to have broken a significant support and the volume is increasing on the more recent downward moves.
Weekly chart below showing break, a clearer downward vol movement is seen on a daily chart

 

[J.B.Nimble]

OMG Paul's backing it...what the hell do we make of that?????????

He has a bout a 50% hit ratio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But isn't it so spooky when he gets it right...
Keep it coming Paul - don't understand it but love your posts...

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

Gann stressed the importance of anniversaries, in our astroanalysis.

For example, CTO ... has pulled back to a significant low in May
each year, since 2004 .....

In May 2005 a double bottom was confirmed with the
May 2004 lows, just before rallying from 10-to-58 cents.

Right now, CTO is also making a double bottom, around
.165 cents, with increased volumes evident, in 2009.

With two significant and positive time cycles expected
to be triggered over the next couple of weeks, CTO
seems to be technically prime for lift-off ... !~!

Updated CTO chart, attached below.

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[lianeisme]

Does anyone know why citigold has dropped so fare and why it hasn't moved with the gold prices surging. Have they actually got the gold out of the ground and on the market. what's your thoughts on this stock and where you think its going to go.

 

[Sean K]

I don't think anyone believes them, thus is reflected in their sp.

Still a potential bottom in place, down there.

I'm thankful Yogi's astro analysis told us this was set for takeoff on 16 May. If only we knew it was set for disaster 3 weeks later.

 

[lianeisme]

mmmm are they allowed to tell poky pies under than ASX rules. They sent an issue out to share holders to buy more I did at .152 cents now I'm wondering if I have blown my money as I did with Babcock and Brown.

 

[bandicoot76]

hang in there my friend, it'll come good! all shares have taken a caning the last couple of days. CTO will come through ok, they are just burning alot of cash getting their infrastructure ready to increase production (declines, access drives etc) keep the faith!

 

[Miner]

hang in there my friend, it'll come good! all shares have taken a caning the last couple of days. CTO will come through ok, they are just burning alot of cash getting their infrastructure ready to increase production (declines, access drives etc) keep the faith!

Hi Bandicoot

Are you a faith healer too
What is the source of your information ? Website published report or your good feelings

Would be interested to know

Cheers

 

[So_Cynical]

They sent an issue out to share holders to buy more I did at .152 cents now I'm wondering if I have blown my money as I did with Babcock and Brown.

CTO traded at 18 cents yesterday, so u could of sold for a profit of over 15% after
holding for just a couple of weeks...and your complaining.

 

[lianeisme]

I bought them at .32 cents a few years ago and bought a further parcel of around 6500 at .15 to bring down my average so I would have made a loss if I sold yesterday

 

[bandicoot76]

Hi Bandicoot

Are you a faith healer too
What is the source of your information ? Website published report or your good feelings

Would be interested to know

Cheers

a geologist friend of mine(also a shareholder) did the underground tour of the mine and that was his opinion.

 

[jman2007]

I think the biggest coup CTO ever pulled off was convincing the JORC that their 1800m deep DDH confirmed the continuity of the mineralised structure from 500m to 1800m. That sent their Resource base soaring from about 3.3M oz to about 10Moz!...just from a single hole! For this reason alone, I'm sceptical of their numbers. I'm not sure how many of the reefs would be payable, perhaps 50% or so.

 

[WRONG'UN]

Hi Jman2007
I have been keeping a loose cover on CTO for over five years and recall that their "resource base" has been 10M oz for all that time, certainly from well before the DDH was put down. However, I agree with the basic reasoning behind your posting, which is to the effect that if their resource is scattered over a number of reefs, which will require at least some separate access declines etc., there is a questionmark over the economics of the entire operation. Until the Warrior Mine has been confirmed as a viable proposition in its own right, I am reluctant to value CTO on the basis of a much larger inferred resource.