CTO - Citigold Corporation

[lianeisme]

As I mentioned earlier if you write to Mark he will respond.
I wrote to Mark and told home he needs to make share holders more aware of the activities of the company. I suggested the problems people were having re the belief in the company it would be nice to have a quartley news letter answering questions. Mark said he would take this on board. Well it appears he has, if you have any questions regarding CTO hopefully it will be answered here I have attached the link as there are lots of questions and answers from share holders.
http://www.citigold.com/viewasxrelease.asp?Releasenumber=303

 

[Mogul]

Being a shareholder with a significant amount invested $100'sK it is certainly dissapointing to see where it is sitting.

The results for the 2nd half of 09 should be quite pleasing to everyone with a nice rise in share price. AGM will be interesting as results won't be out beforehand, but will definately be sprouted and talked up as usual. There will be significant angst amoungst shareholders which will possibly result in major changes at senior management level.

I know that analysts have issues with senior management and therefore there is no promotion or reccommendations to buy CTO.

I assume time will tell, but an interesting and hopefully very profitable ride ahead.

 

[oldblue]

Now there's a shareholder with a bit of faith in CTO!

Hundreds of thousands dollars worth!

Do you subscribe to the movement for a change of management for this company?

 

[Mogul]

Now there's a shareholder with a bit of faith in CTO!

Hundreds of thousands dollars worth!

Do you subscribe to the movement for a change of management for this company?

Yes, CTO management needs to focus on increasing shareholder value. There is too much spin from the current management and not enough action.

 

[Mogul]

What a surprise more spin from the MD on the same day proxy forms are released.

We want to see results.

 

[Sean K]

CTO are by far the cheapest producer on my gold stock analysis table. Actually, the second cheapest of ANY I follow including junior explorers.

I wonder why!

10m ounces at 11 g/t JORC with 50m upside (chuckle)

I think that they are either the biggest rampers on the planet, or we are missing one of the most significant turn around stories EVER!



Technically, I am VERY interested in seeing some of these resistance lins surpassed.

 

[ponder]

Hi,
This is my first post,
I do not seem to be an expert on the art of buying shares. Please keep that in mind.
But I sold out today.
In previous announcements they were talking about 70.000 ounces for the 2009 calendar year.
In today's announcement they refer to 25.000 ounces.
I feel they are shifting the goalposts once again.
The calendar year (i.e. not the financial year) for 2009 ends in December.
I think they have missed the target.

 

[banska bystrica]

A few companies have tried to mine this resource at CT. All unsuccessful. It's a complex structure. I would avoid it like the plague.

 

[mightau]

Hi,
This is my first post,
I do not seem to be an expert on the art of buying shares. Please keep that in mind.
But I sold out today.
In previous announcements they were talking about 70.000 ounces for the 2009 calendar year.
In today's announcement they refer to 25.000 ounces.
I feel they are shifting the goalposts once again.
The calendar year (i.e. not the financial year) for 2009 ends in December.
I think they have missed the target.

In fairness (and I am not one to feel charitable to CTO management), their April announcement on March quarter earnings did predict 25000 oz for the 2009 calendar year (with December quarted mined at an annualised rate of 60000oz), so the announcements last Friday are consistent.

That's not to say they haven't shifted the goal posts a lot in the past. Their record is very poor on matching fact to promise.

On the other hand (!), that does mean CTO has become a pure play on actual gold production - there's no fat in the share price reflecting unproven future earnings at all. Maybe that's a good thing.

 

[Sean K]

Still promising a lot and continuing to underdeliver. It doesn't look like they will even meet the 25,000 oz in 2009 at this rate. The Sep quarter was supposed to be 5,000 oz and they've delivered 2600 oz. Half...

Production for the calender year has been:

Mar 2522
Jun 1855
Sep 2600

So they need to produce 18,023 ounces in the Dec quarter to meet the target! They were originally forecasting 15,000 in Dec. Take your bets.

Stated aim to scale up to 85,000 oz in 2010. Oh dear....

Maybe they're going to mine someone else deposit to get the target?

Cash costs $542, when they continue to sprewk $300 oz opex target. Half the current rate. (Note: was $491 in June and $488 in March, so it's going UP!) Just how they are going to achieve $350 is anyones guess.

On another note their attempted takeover of Gateway turned into a farce with them only gaining 45 ish % of the company which will remain listed. Really, what was the point? Quite bizaar at at time when they can't even get their own operation running to plan.

Dipped under 15c key support yesterday, looking vulnerable with the markets falling a bit, gold correcting with USD oversold and bouncing. Looks in trouble I think.

 

[Mogul]

I have just sent Mark an email, will have to wait and see if I get a reply. Not happy with the result at all.

 

[Putty7]

Have held these at one stage (quite a few) just before the Dubai buying and selling craze, sold out during that thankfully, had a mate ring me yesterday and raved on about CTO but honestly even with the new low at .145c I can't bring myself to get back in, my confidence in their mangement is shot, there are better performing gold shares around, FML stands out in my mind at the moment even though I am not holding, I can't understand the takeover bid they threw in earlier when they can't get their own show up and going like they keep saying they are, the figures prove that unfortunately.

With all that said they are still at the bottom end of their scale with regards to price and if they do actually get their act together it will be a nice ride, best of luck to any still holding and will keep a watch on them regardless just in case.

 

[jman2007]

Have held these at one stage (quite a few) just before the Dubai buying and selling craze, sold out during that thankfully, had a mate ring me yesterday and raved on about CTO but honestly even with the new low at .145c I can't bring myself to get back in, my confidence in their mangement is shot, there are better performing gold shares around, FML stands out in my mind at the moment even though I am not holding, I can't understand the takeover bid they threw in earlier when they can't get their own show up and going like they keep saying they are, the figures prove that unfortunately.

With all that said they are still at the bottom end of their scale with regards to price and if they do actually get their act together it will be a nice ride, best of luck to any still holding and will keep a watch on them regardless just in case.

Putty I'm with kennas on this one,

I'd be extremely careful with re-entering CTO, starting to look vunerble. I see Towsey has relocated himself to site permanently as the "Site Senior Executive"...lol. You know a company is in trouble when the management start coming up with names like "Associate Grand Poohbah of the 5th Realm" - minesite politics.. ughh! :flush:

This farce has gone on too long, and needs to be wound down.

 

[Putty7]

Thanks JMAN, yes I agree they don't have the bite to back up any of their bark and I won't be getting back in anytime soon, for lack of better terminology they need to put a chainsaw or a brushfire (or both) through the management and get rid of the dead wood, most of my interest is in energy at the moment, particularly oil and gas short term plays so not in any hurry to venture back into gold stocks, even if I change my stance on this I would look at RNG, FML or maybe GOA over committing capital to CTO again.

 

[riverred]

Hello all, I'm new to this forum.

Like most of you, I do wonder about CTO directors' depth of experience in gold production, as distinct from gold exploration. I also wonder about their skills in corporate strategies to maximise value for shareholders. In a perverse sense, I take a bit of assurance from the fact that for every sp drop of 1c, I lose a $couple K, but the Lynch's family fortune loses $860K. Mark will need to get his strategies right if he intends to keep his family fortune intact. He would have lost approx. $34M since the sp dropped from 55c to 14c. And he cannot sell his shares to cut his losses because that would trigger a stampede away from CTO, thereby exacerbating the sp problem.

Mark must have had sleepless nights over the last 12 months; like James Packer over his $multi-billion losses, perhaps? If so, then is the extended loss of sleep affecting his business judgement? Why do the annual capital raisings get cheaper and cheaper in terms of sp, if CTO gets nearer and nearer to significant production? It's all upside down. Would the next capital raising will be at 12c or less if there's still no significant gold show? Reminds me of the unfortunate Goldstar experience which shares were eventually issued at 1c. Also, does Mark realise that if he doesn't come participate in the capital raisings, he loses significant percentage holdings over time?

One part of me says to ditch the shares. The other part says to wait. If matters are so dire, why would a reputable firm such as Rodman & Renshaw place CTO shares to their clients? The fees earned in the $5M or so capital raising is not worth the bad risk to their established international reputation.

I also bear in mind that there are four factors at play at anytime: the board of directors, the hardworking staffs, the company’s fixed undervalued assets and the elusive but independently confirmed huge gold resources. Only one of four factors has consistently let shareholders down. The other three are doing just fine. So the challenge for me is to place the right weighting for each of these factors in some rationale method to arrive at a satisfactory course of investment action. So far, no solution yet...

But it is important not to lose sight of this fact: CTO is not NCM, LGL or KCN. CTO a highly speculative play. Enter at our own risk. Huge losses are likely, as are huge gains. Easier to take that punt at the Melbourne Cup race, perhaps?

 

[Sean K]

Hello all, I'm new to this forum.

....

Easier to take that punt at the Melbourne Cup race, perhaps?

Some good points there riverred.

If they can turn this around and start hitting targets then it's looking undervalued. The net asset backing is about 24c a share or thereabouts which puts absolutely no value on any gold production.

In regard to support from Instos, that may be comforting, but there's been a few also that have backed complete turkeys and lost gazillions. I seem to remember BDG doing a well supported capital raising at $1.00 ish before they fell to 10c. So, I'd still be cautious.

If they don't get close to the 18k ish ounces required this quarter, I think they'll be in a spot of bother.

But agree, at this level, if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat, could be highly profitable also.

So, 50c each way?

 

[riverred]

Hi kennas.

The unfortunate BDG experience took place under different circumstances. Gullible or inexperienced investment fund managers were blinded by the soaring sp trend then. With CTO, it's just the reverse. R&R would have been alerted to the downtrend over the last 2 years and would have asked some very probing questions of the board. What wouldn't shareholders give to know those Q&As?!

A few years ago I valued CTO at $1.00ps; on the important assumption that the resources were proven to be convertible to reserves. Since then, the price of gold has doubled. But the no. of shares issued has also doubled. So, a quick guestimate is that my valuation has not changed much. Btw, I applied 8% to the igv, as opposed to Fat Prophets' 10% guideline.

I guess I should disclose that I'm not holding out for dividends and long-term profitable gold production. Takes a bit too long, that. I'm speculating on a takeover by one of the big boys. For this to eventuate, CTO just need to get its reserves in place and the door knocks and phone calls will begin. Dividends and profitable production are merely entree to the main course.

Reading between the lines of one of the recent interviews with Mark Lynch, I get the sense that he has this in mind as well. And why not? Not many shareholders can say no to an $86M offer. Mark can certainly accomplish a few impressive acts with that amount of cash.

Cheers.

 

[So_Cynical]

Like most of you, I do wonder about CTO directors' depth of experience in gold production, as distinct from gold exploration. I also wonder about their skills in corporate strategies to maximise value for shareholders.

I wonder about there skills and experience in being able to tell simple truths, to set realistic goals and to deal honestly with shareholders and the market in general.

 

[jet328]

the door knocks and phone calls will begin

If anyone actually believed the figures they throw around as reserves this would be gone tomorrow morning.
Even if you offered double the current SP, its still nothing for 10million ounces

If you go back and look at announcements over the last decade, they are great at talking just not getting any of it out the ground

 

[riverred]

But SoCynical, CTO isn't the first, and wouldn't be the last, to market its wares in so shameless a manner.

Recall all the hype that Newcrest had used to promote its Telfer mine development? Analysts were shaking their heads in grim disapproval at the forward`looking statements, frustrating delays, unending problems and the $200M budget blowout. Then there was Lihir, full of its Ballarat promises. It's been about four years now, but have the vindictive fund managers forgiven Bendigo yet? Frankly, they should carry some of the blame. Oh, Zinifex-Oxiana-OZ, how could you spend with such nonchalance $1B from the Nystar sale proceeds in less than 12 months and then almost go broke? Well, Rio Tinto outdid that feat with its dreams of aluminium. How about Central Petroleum, aspiring to be the next hybrid PES-MCC. The list of distinguished players goes on...

Could it be that the realities of high corporate strategies and massive opportunity creation require such nature of skills and aggressive positioning that are totally exotic in the lives of mere mortal shareholders such as us?