CSL - CSL Limited

[Knobby22]

Here it comes and imagine the margin, if they stay on the safe site a saline solution with homeopathic dissolution and placebo effect will do the trick: saline solution is very cheap
There was no need of any crystal ball here, just look where the propaganda leads

CSL and AstraZenica don't work like that.

 

[qldfrog]

CSL and AstraZenica don't work like that.

that's the problem and why I will avoid getting "immunized" as long as i can humanly do it;
they may even want to try to use something which is not a saline solution.
In Brisbane we are at risk of dengue fever and that (existing and working) vaccine would make more sense for me, if i was above 65 or sick, I might gamble and try being a covid guinea pig ;
but I prefer playing lotto in my current situation and this is a number game based on real info from France, not hysteria by news ltd or ABC

 

[cutz]

Extract from today's market release.

"Melbourne, 7 September 2020 – CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) today announces it has signed a Heads of Agreement (HoA) with the Australian Government for the supply of 51 million doses of the University of Queensland’s (UQ) COVID-19 vaccine candidate (V451), and a separate HoA with AstraZeneca to manufacture the Oxford University candidate (AZD1222), should clinical trials of both prove successful"

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL is up 0.8 per cent (and above $300 a share) after lifting the bottom end of its full year profit growth guidance.
Comments on the outlook for FY21:
• We expect strong demand for our plasma and recombinant therapies to continue
• Seqirus: Is expected to continue to benefit from its differentiated products and strong demand for influenza vaccines, driven in part by Governments wanting to protect their populations from contracting two viruses – that is COVID and influenza.
• Sales of Albumin expected to normalise following the successful transition to the new business model in China
• In relation to plasma - COVID restrictions are expected to restrain our ability to collect plasma and add to the overall cost of collection. However, we do have multiple initiatives underway to mitigate the impact.
• Our R&D response to COVID, as well as new R&D initiatives, will put upward pressure on R&D expense, but still within the 10-11% of revenue envelope as previously guided to.

In terms of guidance for FY21, we expect revenue growth in the range of 6 to 10% over fiscal 20. Net profit after tax is expected to be approximately $2.170 to $2.265 billion at constant currency, implying a growth of 3 to 8%, which is a slight tightening of the range advised at the Company’s results announcement in August – the low end was zero, which we’ve now raised to 3%

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Seqirus, a wholly owned subsidiary of CSL, plans to invest more than AUD$800 million in the construction of a new biotech manufacturing facility in Melbourne to supply influenza vaccines to Australia and the rest of the world.

This investment decision follows the agreement with the Australian Government for the supply over 10 years of influenza pandemic protection for the Australian population, antivenoms for Australian snakes, spiders and marine creatures and Q-Fever vaccine.

 

[Knobby22]

CSL is my pick for the month.
In a month in which I think there may be a correction CSL will rise as approval for the Astrozenica vaccine takes place.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Despite being Australia’s largest company and having delivered exceptional outperformance relative to the ASX200 over the last two decades, CSL is not very widely held among retail investors on nabtrade. Just 5.5% of investors hold the stock directly. Those who do hold CSL, however, own over $100,000 on average, over 4x the average stock holding, so it is a very high conviction investment.

The lack of allocation to CSL is usually a result of concerns about its relatively small dividend yield (1%), or valuation (CSL is currently trading on a forward PE of about 42x). The attraction for those who hold it is the extraordinary growth of earnings relative to other large companies.

- Gemma Dale, nabtrade

24 hot stocks and funds for 2021

Many investors use the new year to review their portfolios, and in this free ebook, two dozen fund managers and product providers give their best ideas for 2021 - some stocks, some funds, some sectors.

www.firstlinks.com.au

.... and I'd add, reinvesting into R&D, not having need for capital raisings. And being long term. From November:

Melbourne will see a new high-tech vaccine manufacturing plant in a billion-dollar deal to secure the nation’s long-term supply of critical health products including influenza vaccines and life-saving anti-venoms.
The complex at Tullamarine will be the largest influenza vaccine manufacturing facility in the southern hemisphere, allowing Australia to rapidly respond to flu outbreaks and pandemics. It will replace the existing CSL owned facility in inner-city Parkville.
The federal government will sign a $1 billion agreement with Seqirus, the influenza vaccines arm of CSL, to secure supply until 2036 of medical products that would otherwise need to be sourced from overseas.....

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Of course, the current strength of AUD , at over 78c to USD, would be weighing on CSL at present.

 

[sptrawler]

- Gemma Dale, nabtrade

24 hot stocks and funds for 2021

Many investors use the new year to review their portfolios, and in this free ebook, two dozen fund managers and product providers give their best ideas for 2021 - some stocks, some funds, some sectors.

www.firstlinks.com.au

.... and I'd add, reinvesting into R&D, not having need for capital raisings. And being long term. From November:

What fantastic news and another indicator of Australia going back to the future, as we have said before, this virus may well be a turning point in Australia's history. The dig and ship mentality, may well support, the build and invest mentality.
Here's hoping.

 

[qldfrog]

What fantastic news and another indicator of Australia going back to the future, as we have said before, this virus may well be a turning point in Australia's history. The dig and ship mentality, may well support, the build and invest mentality.
Here's hoping.

We are going to see a commodity boom in the next 5y,and australia will revert to its dig and ship, minus real employment due to mining robotisation.
with the Reset, we will see BHP becoming a PR house of so call employment equality: aka racism and discrimination, only positive for the few selected ones.
Rio will be in forever mea culpa after blowing up The Cave.
And a Labour win will ensure universal income of sort in place so the population will not lift a finger and just suck the mining royalties dry.
Not much to be optimistic in the australian miracle v3.0
But csl is a good company

 

[mullokintyre]

We are going to see a commodity boom in the next 5y,and australia will revert to its dig and ship, minus real employment due to mining robotisation.

Australia will not be alone in that respect. Most countries will shift to more robotics. it will start to remove the advantage that poorer paid employees have in China, India, and other under developed countries. The one growth area is in electronics, but we waste money on producing more lawyers than science grads.

 

[qldfrog]

Australia will not be alone in that respect. Most countries will shift to more robotics. it will start to remove the advantage that poorer paid employees have in China, India, and other under developed countries. The one growth area is in electronics, but we waste money on producing more lawyers than science grads.

note you used "shift to" and you are right, so Chinese companies will shift to robots too.already well started process.dirt cheap labor will be Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, maybe one day Africa if they manage to ever sort their mess.
But it is a very different story to start from scratch and in term of number, manufacturing in Aus is really gone forever.Similar in most of the west.German and US will sort their way but otherwise....
And as you say, even if we had the $, existing knowledge and entrepreneurship here, we will not have the graduates brains.
But a few companies like CSl will keep their advantages, long term, they will carry on and may suck a bit of gov funding along the way.
So CSL future is bright in my opinion

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL hit a low at open of $268.99 before bouncing back. That drop was only 2 x 40,000 shares. ... wait a minute, that's $20mill

lowest point since late 2019 ....(is that a triple bottom, or a pennant forming?)

 

[rnr]

CSL hit a low at open of $268.99 before bouncing back. That drop was only 2 x 40,000 shares. ... wait a minute, that's $20mill

View attachment 118316


lowest point since late 2019 ....(is that a triple bottom, or a pennant forming?)View attachment 118315

Hi @Dona Ferentes,

So, without putting words into your mouth, you are suggesting that after a couple of bounces at around this level history should repeat itself and we should be looking for price to move higher.

Sounds like a good idea.....so a bounce upward in price from here!

And yes I'm with you in that the normal caveats would apply...do not treat this a recommendation to buy or sell.

Cheers, Rob

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Hi @Dona Ferentes,

So, without putting words into your mouth, you are suggesting that after a couple of bounces at around this level history should repeat itself and we should be looking for price to move higher.

Sounds like a good idea.....so a bounce upward in price from here!

And yes I'm with you in that the normal caveats would apply...do not treat this a recommendation to buy or sell

Rob, Am in two minds, possibly more...
First, I think the run from 100 to 300 was wonderful; a realisation the Sequeris acquisition was the company maker. Took CSL a while to achieve this and the market even longer to realise.
We have essentially stalled since then, as new research-derived products are incremental, not transformational.
Covid has confused things. Ultimately the social license will mean there isn't too much in it for CSL. Please, a vaccine; please, a solution and a way out. But can't be seen as profiting excessively .... (Payoff will be in the 20 years the new plant will be at scale and state-of-the-art).
And Covid has meant repositioning and great change by other players that are competitors. Gloves will be off in a year or so.
Plus the plasma market is impacted.

I'm not sure where it's going; rallies get snuffed out and the forward PE is still high.

(Meanwhile, happy to hold; )

 

[kenny]

Rask Media's take on FY21 for CSL;

What does FY21 look like?
CSL is now expecting profit to grow in the range of 3% to 8% to US$2.17 billion to $2.265 billion. Profit growth was previously expected to be in a range of 0% to 8%. So whilst the top end of the profit guidance is still expected to be 8% growth, the company’s mid-point of guidance has increased.

The profit growth is going to be helped by revenue growth in the range of 6% to 10%.

CSL is expecting strong demand for its plasma and recombinant therapies over FY21. Seqirus is expected to continue to benefit from its differentiated products and strong demand for flu vaccines, driven by the government want to protect people from both COVID-19 and the flu. Sales of albumin are expected to normalise after the successful transition to the new business model in China.

Using CommSec projected profit numbers, CSL shares are priced at 34 times the estimated earnings for the 2023 financial year. That’s fairly pricey for a business with a market capitalisation well north of $100 billion. It’s not a clear buy for me, but I’d rather buy it than many other ASX 20 blue chips.

Plasma collection remains a challenge to growth for CSL.

https://www.cslbehring.com/vita/2020/how-the-pandemic-has-affected-plasma-donations

https://johnstonsunrise.net/stories...slanders-for-covid-19-plasma-donations,157696

https://wallethacks.com/how-to-donate-plasma/

Here's UBS's price target graph. They've retained a Buy rating with a $346 target.

 

[UMike]

CSL hit a low at open of $268.99 before bouncing back. That drop was only 2 x 40,000 shares. ... wait a minute, that's $20mill

lowest point since late 2019 ....(is that a triple bottom, or a pennant forming?)

Wasn't on the open as I bought in at $271.
Hoping this at support levels and the rebound is forthcoming.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Wasn't on the open as I bought in at $271.
Hoping this at support levels and the rebound is forthcoming.

dropped in the minute or 2 after Open

 

[UMike]

Got my second parcel Friday. Seems Most CSL action happens on the close.

 

[darien44]

How does one determine a fair price for CSL? I have been hearing about CSL for a long time and realise what a high quality company it is, but every metric I've used points to it being overvalued by a wide margin.

I know people have been saying it looks expensive for years, but that does not necessarily mean it is not expensive now. So to all CSL holders, how would you determine if you are paying too much for this stock?