CSL - CSL Limited

[galumay]

Revenue growing at 9% and a p/e of 50. Fine, nothing to see here. Even the blue chips are stonks these days. Maths is dead. All aboard, the rocket departs shortly!!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Had to look up "stonks".
https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/stonks-meme-boglehead-investing

Might work for some.

 

[Knobby22]

Revenue growing at 9% and a p/e of 50. Fine, nothing to see here. Even the blue chips are stonks these days. Maths is dead. All aboard, the rocket departs shortly!!

11% profit growth per half in first half. Second half has been advised as being in the range of 8- 16% but knowing CSL will be closer to 16%.
Also phase 3 drug trial for a drug to stop recurring heart attacks is taking place with thousands of patients over many hospitals. Predicted revenue/profit increase to CSL if trial succeeds 45%. Nothing to sneeze at. I think this is the reason the PE has got a bit stretched.
Not unrealistic. When you value shares you have to factor in growth.

Dividends are in US$ so translating it to Australian currencies the dividend increase is actually greater than first appears.

From a fundamental investor viewpoint I am happy to hold. It is in my view one of Australia's only true blue chip companies. You look at the top 10 and they are all duds, Telstra, the Banks etc.

It would be difficult for me to sell anyway as it is a 300 bagger and I bought them in my name years ago when I first stated investing (doing a course on corporate finance as an adjunct to my engineering degree where I valued CSL and decided to buy) and would have to pay too much tax.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“Some people might say we are a bit boring because we haven’t changed our strategy,” CEO Paul Perreault said. “Our is a focused strategy on execution to meet patients’ needs around the world for these specialised medicines that are usually non-discretionary.”

The medicines he is referring include immunoglobulin therapies, which are used to treat immunodeficiencies and have been the biggest driver of CSL’s growth. The company also produces treatments for blood-related disorders, such as haemophilia, and influenza vaccines. And there is more to come, with CSL spending about $1bn a year on drug trials to build its pipeline of future blockbusters.

- my younger brother has received 55 IVIG* treatments in the last half-decade, one a month. The specialists are upping it from one a month to one a fortnight, three hours in the chair each time. $5,000 a pop of CSL's Privigen. (thanks taxpayers/ Medicare, btw).

This has come about as they have seen its the only thing that holds off his undiagnosed condition. Since recently identifying a genetic marker for MND, but also another as yet unascribed, the sophistication of the therapies increase as the understanding does..

*intravenous immunoglobulin

 

[Dona Ferentes]

correction

$5,000 a pop of CSL's Privigen

he gets 40g/400ml each time = A$1800, on the National Product List of the National Blood Agreement, funded 63% by the Commonwealth and 37% by the states and territories.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

....the reason the PE has got a bit stretched. Not unrealistic. When you value shares you have to factor in growth.

From a fundamental investor viewpoint I am happy to hold. It is in my view one of Australia's only true blue chip companies.

and then

It would be difficult for me to sell anyway as ...I bought them in my name years ago. .... [and] would have to pay too much tax.

and an interesting bit of news last Wednesday

On Wednesday, CBA held its dividend at $2, from interim earnings per share of $2.75, a payout ratio of 78.8 per cent and a yield of 4.9 per cent. On the same day, CSL announced exactly the same EPS, $2.75, and a dividend of 95c. Payout ratio 34 per cent, yield 0.9 per cent.

CBA’s interim profit was $4.48bn and CSL’s was about a quarter of that at $1.2bn. Yet both companies are now worth about the same (the bank is still a few billion ahead), but CBA has a price-earnings multiple of 18 while CSL sells for 54 times earnings.

from an Alan Kohler column. Of course it's not binary; as #2 and 3 (dual listed BHP is Australia's biggest listed entity) you're allowed to own both. Blue chips are there because of their track records. Didn't fall from outer space.

And, good point about tax realities. It's not all about the buy side; reasons to sell are as complex and often not as discernable. Takes both sides to make a market.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes, however,

In 5 years time CSL will still be priced at 30 times earnings while CBA will still be at a much lower ratio probably 18.

The CSL capitilisation however will be double CBA. The power of compound growth is why investors are willing to pay more.

Sure we have BHP up there, A true blue chip though very cyclical. A survivor.

The banks, which are under subtle attack by companies like Apple and Google as well as the fintechs.

Wesfarmers- a conglomerate, so will pass that as a blue chip.

Telstra, Woolworths. Nuff said.

We don't have much that is world competing, dynamic, growing strongly.
We need, as a nation, some world leaders.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://stockhead.com.au/health/dr-...poster-child-for-most-junior-drug-developers/

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL shares closed at $338.68, retreating from an intra-day high of $342.75 and, at one point, 8.05 per cent of the benchmark index, unseating Commonwealth Bank at 8.03 per cent and 5.9 per cent for BHP Billiton. The miner boasts the largest overall valuation of any listed Australian company, but its shares are dual listed on the London Stock Exchange.

 

[sptrawler]

CSL shares closed at $338.68, retreating from an intra-day high of $342.75 and, at one point, 8.05 per cent of the benchmark index, unseating Commonwealth Bank at 8.03 per cent and 5.9 per cent for BHP Billiton. The miner boasts the largest overall valuation of any listed Australian company, but its shares are dual listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Thanks for that Dona, I bought 2000 at $27, after the GFC, sold them at $30something, when I was made redundant. The story of my life.lol

 

[Dona Ferentes]

While CSL's Seqirus division manufactures flu vaccines, it has not been directly engaged in the search for a coronavirus vaccine and the conditions are quite different.

Instead, the company has donated some of its proprietary technology to the team at the University of Queensland working on a COVID-19 vaccine.

 

[Tumbarumba]

CSL is getting more involved now.Latest press release states,
Coronavirus is quite different to influenza virus so is not a core area of focus for CSL. On saying that, given the mounting public health issue this has become, we are investigating what adjacencies in expertise, technologies and facilities we might contribute as a collaborator to the global effort.
CSL already has 30% of the flu vaccine market. SP oversold during recent market panic.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

more than $1Billion pushed through on CSL on Friday

A large part of that was XT after closing, and at $276, the lowest for 2 months, the high volume lows of Corona-panic March.

End of Month? Book squaring?

 

[Trav.]

CSL is a funny one for me. I have never purchased it before and it has come up on my scan today ( actually top of the list ) but at $294.23 I find myself struggling to put a buy in.

Sure you could buy tomorrow and if it retraced to April's high then that would see you up ~11% but $294.23.....should it matter ?

For those interested to put it on a watchlist

- CAM Counter Trend detected
- but not for me, so I will come back in a week and check it out...will it be +310, +320, +330, who knows.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL has agreed to acquire the exclusive global license rights to commercialise an adenoassociated virus (AAV) gene therapy program, AMT-061 (etranacogene dezaparvovec), for the treatment of haemophilia from Nasdaq-listed gene therapy company, uniQure .

According to the release, the AMT-061 program, which is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials, could be one of the first gene therapies to provide potentially long-term benefits to patients with haemophilia B.

Management explained that one dose of AMT-061 has shown to increase Factor IX (FIX) plasma levels to a degree that reduces or eliminates the tendency for bleeding for many years. FIX is the blood clotting protein lacking in people with haemophilia B.

This means that should AMT-061’s trials be successful, appropriate candidate haemophilia B patients will be able to have a one-time treatment to restore FIX activity to functional levels capable of eliminating the need for frequent and ongoing replacement therapies.

CSL’s CEO and Managing Director, Paul Perreault, commented:

“Our vision for haemophilia B patients is to offer transformational treatment paradigms that help free them from the lifelong burden of this disease. With more than three decades of providing lifesaving innovations for the global bleeding disorders community, we are well positioned to maximise the potential benefit of this therapy.”

What is CSL paying for AMT-061?

Under the agreement with the gene therapy company, CSL will have the exclusive global right to commercialise AMT-061.

It will pay uniQure an upfront cash payment of US$450 million, followed by regulatory and commercial sales milestone payments and royalties.

In addition, uniQure will complete the Phase 3 trial and scale up manufacture for early commercial supply under an agreed plan with CSL. The transaction remains subject to customary regulatory clearances before closing.

Mr. Perreault concluded:

“Upon approval, we believe this next-generation therapy would be highly complementary to our existing haemophilia B product portfolio. We hope that it provides patients with an alternate best-in-class treatment option, building on our legacy of delivering lifesaving innovations in hematology."

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

CSL's core immunoglobulin portfolio has led the healthcare giant to another strong result, with profits jumping 7.5 per cent to $US1.25 billion ($1.86 billion) in the first half.

On a constant currency basis the company's net profit growth climbed into the double digits, hitting 11.3 per cent, while its revenue was also up 11 per cent on a constant currency (9 per cent in a statutory basis), reaching $US4.91 billion for the six months ended December 31 - ahead of consensus estimates.

Chief executive Paul Perreault said the immunoglobulin business had performed exceptionally well, underpinned by its Privgen and Hizentra therapies, in which sales were up 28 per cent and 37 per cent respectively.


And US95c dividend

Ahh, CSL; I had to use this company for my optimal capital structure assignment at university when studying postgrad applied finance.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Technicals don't like it:
..." just look at this broad top formation that CSL has been forming for the past nine months. It appears poised to break lower under $278 and head down to $250/250... " - Greg Tolpigin
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/24/cracks-appearing-diversify-with-silver/

and the fund managers are down on it:

Livewire Markets: Okay. We've got a couple of stocks that you both like. Can you tell me something you don't like right now?
Blake Henricks (Firetrail): Well, I'd say we are funding some of these purchases through something like a CSL where great business, but there's probably not the tailwinds that it's had over the last few years in the next little while. So that's a good funder for us.

Livewire Markets: Jun Bei, you got something that you are using to fund your Zip shares?
Jun Bei Liu (Tribeca): He took my stock! I was going to say CSL. We're not going significantly underweight, but CSL, it's done well and it's pretty expensive and its earnings are going to be downgraded. So that's a funder...

 

[qldfrog]

Technicals don't like it:
..." just look at this broad top formation that CSL has been forming for the past nine months. It appears poised to break lower under $278 and head down to $250/250... " - Greg Tolpigin
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/24/cracks-appearing-diversify-with-silver/

and the fund managers are down on it:

Definitively not a nice outlook chart wise but I am convince CSL will be the facade used in Australia to sell/manufacture the coming fake vaccine;
so worth buying a bit and hold for less than 12 months in my opinion, plus after the deaths figures from coming August/September here, it will be seen as the saviour and so given mass of money.
worst case scenariio: still a decent company so the advantages far outmatch the risks is the way I see it

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Talks with AstraZeneca include CSL potentially producing its vaccine under a licensing deal at its advanced manufacturing facility at Broadmeadows in the Melbourne northern suburb.

"Development of the UQ vaccine candidate remains CSL's priority", a company spokeswoman said.

"However, we are currently in discussions with AstraZeneca and the Australian Government to assess whether it is possible to provide local manufacturing support for the Oxford University/ AstraZeneca vaccine, should it prove successful, while protecting our commitment to the UQ vaccine."

"We are assessing the viability of options ranging from the fill and finish of bulk product imported to Australia through to manufacture of the vaccine candidate under licence"

 

[qldfrog]

Here it comes and imagine the margin, if they stay on the safe site a saline solution with homeopathic dissolution and placebo effect will do the trick: saline solution is very cheap
There was no need of any crystal ball here, just look where the propaganda leads