CSL - CSL Limited

[Knobby22]

I agree with you guys but having little growth next year will tend to stop buyers.

If the $A falls this company will have to stay at least the same price in trade weighted dollars, and the growth is still occurring.

I sold some at $38 earlier and tend to buy them back below $30 if possible.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

I wonder if Mr Market is being a little irrational over CSL right now. The company has broken out of its trading range a few months ago and has pushed through a new 52 week high this morning on no news and a strengthening Australian dollar against the US and Euro (which ought to hurt CSL's earnings in Australian dollar terms). There doesn't seem to be any news to support the increasing price.

As a holder, I'm happy to see green on the company's share price this morning but it has me somewhat perplexed.

 

[robusta]

The latest Comsec Market Bulletin has a sell on CSL. I forget the details all I read was blah, blah, blah, short term crap.

I am dreaming of the sp falling 20% so I can get a piece of this wonderful company.

 

[pixel]

The latest Comsec Market Bulletin has a sell on CSL. I forget the details all I read was blah, blah, blah, short term crap.

I am dreaming of the sp falling 20% so I can get a piece of this wonderful company.

ahh - so that's why it fell so much after June Option Expiry. Someone is / has been accumulating.
I bought the rebound, currently holding at $32.36, and intend to add if $33.45 resistance is broken.
Stop = Close Below $31.80.

 

[tinhat]

The latest Comsec Market Bulletin has a sell on CSL. I forget the details all I read was blah, blah, blah, short term crap.

I am dreaming of the sp falling 20% so I can get a piece of this wonderful company.

Gee you're a stingy buyer. Of course there is nothing to say that the price won't drop further but I happily bought in recently at $32.59.

Currency headwinds are the main medium term challenge that I can see.

 

[kat]

How low the SP can go?

 

[VSntchr]

How low the SP can go?

If Jim Rogers is even remotely correct in his predictions of the dollar nearing 1.40....then the answer to your question is much lower...

Despite the falling SP, CSL is by no means cheap in my opininon would consider it trading close to value.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

If Jim Rogers is even remotely correct in his predictions of the dollar nearing 1.40....then the answer to your question is much lower...

Despite the falling SP, CSL is by no means cheap in my opininon would consider it trading close to value.

Agreed. As the Australian dollar climbs against the US dollar, CSL's revenue falls. I wonder if CSL will report their results and try to set out what they might have been but for the increasing strength of the Australian dollars.

Buying the likes of CSL and Cochlear is buying a bet that the US economy will recover and the US dollar will strengthen against the Australian dollar. So far, that bet looks to be a losing one.

 

[robusta]

The latest Comsec Market Bulletin has a sell on CSL. I forget the details all I read was blah, blah, blah, short term crap.

I am dreaming of the sp falling 20% so I can get a piece of this wonderful company.

Not there yet...

 

[kat]

Not there yet...

Now the Franc is going down a bit.

 

[kat]

I agree with you guys but having little growth next year will tend to stop buyers.

If the $A falls this company will have to stay at least the same price in trade weighted dollars, and the growth is still occurring.

I sold some at $38 earlier and tend to buy them back below $30 if possible.

How do you see this one now?

 

[billv]

Despite the falling SP, CSL is by no means cheap in my opininon would consider it trading close to value.

Do you think CSL shares can rely on value alone?
IMO considering the current low growth environment and the crappy unfranked dividend the share price could fall below $18

 

[Knobby22]

How do you see this one now?

Yes, the Swiss Franc and $A have been worse than I thought. This will be a great currency trade one day. I am getting keener as this company is a great cash spinner in a good industry. Looking to buy on a spike down later in the year.

 

[Knobby22]

Very funny article in todays Age.

The CEO of CSL brought senior Chinese officials out this week to see the Broadmeadows plant - where they are planning to build the new plant and where the exisiting facility is to make blood factors. You can imagine the blood flows and such.

As he is talking one of the Chinese puts his hands up says "Penguins"?

Brian McNamee is bemused. Then someone realises they have extra Chinese and have somehow picked up a couple who thought they were going to the penguin parade.

If you hear rumours about CSL being cruel to penguins from China you will know where they started!!

 

[Tysonboss1]

Do you think CSL shares can rely on value alone?
IMO considering the current low growth environment and the crappy unfranked dividend the share price could fall below $18

Well it is not cheap, thats for sure.

The current share price of circa $27.50 pershare, compared to real assets per share of circa $8.50, means $27.50 is on the high side.

If nothing were to change at this company eg, no growth and no change in the exchange rate etc. I guess it would only be worth say $18.

So at the moment it's selling 50% higher than this. Whether that price is justified comes back to what happens to the exchange rate and how well CSL can deploy the retained earnings to grow the businesses.

Csl is currently earning 25% on their equity, and they are retaining nearly $1 of earnings per year, which in theory should add about an extra 25c in earnings.

However, CSL is also conducting share buybacks, I feel if the retained earnings are being used to buy back over priced stock instead of being reinvested in asserts generating high return on equity, the growth in earnings per share will not be high enough to justify the current premium over book value.

The jury is out on this one, I love the assets I just don't want to pay to much for them.

 

[RandR]

Have been keeping a very close eye on CSL in the last week, if anyone else has been following the Swiss Franc to US Dollar, the news of the swiss pegging there currency to the euro brought the US dollar to surge against the Franc.

This is a key exchange rate for this stock, and the rate is now above the level indicated in the last report to be positive for earnings. IF the franc remains weak against the US dollar in the future, I might seriously start to think about taking a plunge on CSL.

That and the stock is now trading at a PE of 15x, when historically about 20x.

Keeping an eye on this daily, it looks to me to be technically finding a little support at this point on the chart aswell.

 

[Tysonboss1]

That and the stock is now trading at a PE of 15x, when historically about 20x.

.

Many stocks that were traditionally 20x are now at 10x.

either way though I really like their assets, and I do feel they are recession proof, But they are currently to expensive, atleast in my veiw.

It's a tuff one to justify, especially because they are putting lots of the cash they are generating back into a share buy back at this high price, which means the return on equity on that cash will be low.

Maybe I will take a little bite and just see how they go, but I will leave room to take more incase there is a rerating lower.

 

[robusta]

The latest Comsec Market Bulletin has a sell on CSL. I forget the details all I read was blah, blah, blah, short term crap.

I am dreaming of the sp falling 20% so I can get a piece of this wonderful company.

Gee you're a stingy buyer. Of course there is nothing to say that the price won't drop further but I happily bought in recently at $32.59.

Currency headwinds are the main medium term challenge that I can see.

Many stocks that were traditionally 20x are now at 10x.

either way though I really like their assets, and I do feel they are recession proof, But they are currently to expensive, atleast in my veiw.

It's a tuff one to justify, especially because they are putting lots of the cash they are generating back into a share buy back at this high price, which means the return on equity on that cash will be low.

Maybe I will take a little bite and just see how they go, but I will leave room to take more incase there is a rerating lower.

I agree with you Tysonboss, not quite there yet IMO for CSL.

 

[RandR]

If one does read through CSL last report you'll discover they actually accepted Greek bonds as payment for outstanding payments. They already wrote off 25million into the last financial period on greek bonds. I havnt been able to determine if CSL is holding anymore european bonds, something I would dearly love to know. One has to wonder if there is a skeleton hiding in the closet ?

 

[Tysonboss1]

If one does read through CSL last report you'll discover they actually accepted Greek bonds as payment for outstanding payments. They already wrote off 25million into the last financial period on greek bonds. I havnt been able to determine if CSL is holding anymore european bonds, something I would dearly love to know. One has to wonder if there is a skeleton hiding in the closet ?

Have they sold the bonds and written of a $25M loss or are they holding and have impaired their holding value