Crude Oil update

[Student of Gann]

There are two scenarios that could prevail so I have presented two price Curves to cover both outcomes - If we continue to drop into the 28th June we could potentially be Low -/+1 on this date so that is the first scenario that could prevail and as the 28th is only a few days away it would be wise to wait for this date to roll around and see how the market is moving into this point . If we do get Low we could be up till the 7th July then down till the 14th July . Previous rallies in July ran out 18.36% and 20% so we may be looking at a rally of this magnitude if we get Low on the 28th June .
The second scenario is a Low into the 7th July then up till the 14th July for counter trend Top so we have a comprehensive framework to check against the position of the market . The three key dates are the 24th June - 7th July and 14th July so once these dates come in and present us with a clear sense of direction we can look to trade out of those dates into the next time period .
studentofgann.com.au

 

[peter2]

Thanks, we'll see what happens.
I'm not a "cycle" sort of chartist and your precise dates intrigues me. The crude oil market can move significantly after the release of the weekly crude oil inventory data. This week is a different week due to the Monday holiday. The crude oil inventory data is delayed due to the holiday and will be released a day later on Friday. Traders may be reluctant to start a position in oil just before the week-end. If this is correct then the reaction to the inventory data may happen on Mon which is 27th June. One day before your date of 28th June (+/- 1d).

Who knows, we'll wait.

 

[Student of Gann]

Was initially looking for a Low into this date however it appears the 28th could be counter trend Top . Price calculations listed below .

 

[Stockbailx]

Its the 29th and could go either way although momentum looks high in a immediate long term prospective. Given Grude Oils economic environment, you would think, it should remain on a high and stay in the the range 124 - 111 for the weeks ahead if not top resistance 124.507. Alternative Scenario if conditions don't hold up and exhausted Oil could turn and retrace back down to break support 103.770 and factor in a calapse, but highly unlikely. Daily Chart suggests it is trying to regain confidence and hold it bullish stance...imo

 

[Student of Gann]

Follow up post for Crude . Initially I was expecting a Low into the 28th but it appears to have come in as counter trend Top so if we continue to move down we could be Low on the 7th july then up till the 14th July for Top.

In this letter I will outline some methods and the approach I use to assemble a Forecast . Firstly it is important to determine where you are located within the market and in relation to the Fixed Cycles and Seasonal points on the Square of Nine . By studying past market movements and by deconstructing the swings you can gain a clearer insight as to what Cycle you are running against and the amplitude and duration of those swings. Gann kept several Master Forecasting Charts or Composite Charts for various stocks and commodities which is one of the key factors that allowed him to determine turning points in the market in conjunction with his other various methods. In order to properly understand and decipher what Gann was doing you will need to replicate his Charts and study his books in great detail not just a cursory glance like many people do . Page No 1 outlines the various Cycles which have been broken down into their various price and time components . The first swing down ran into the 20th Jul 2021 Low a decline of 15% in 14 days - the current swing down is around 7 days and 18% into the 22nd June 2022 Low so we have overbalanced the percentage decline but below the time period of 7 days . The second swing ran down 24% in 43 days - third swing ran down 12.69% in 27 days - fourth swing ran down 28.75% in 35 days and then the 2012 ten year Cycle ran down 30% in 119 days so it is important to compare these past time periods against the current position of the market to determine which one we are repeating . Like Gann I keep large Composite charts for various indexes and commodities which allows me to compare the amplitude and duration of past swings against current swings in the market . The notes below are a template however they do provide us with a good visual picture for comparison but the real value lies within the Master Charts which are constructed in a more sequential and clearly defined format . So getting back to the swings outlined on page 1 it is interesting to note that the 2018 swing measures 27 days in time which is very close to the 23 day time period projected out from the 14th June 2022 Top = 7th July where Low is indicated . If the trend does continue to move down into this date and breaks through the 22nd June Low we can use these percentage figures as an indication to the magnitude of the decline so by having a table of percentage decline figures at hand we can quickly calculate if the current swing down is balancing against any of these points as we approach the key Cycle dates . There are a few harmonic price points to watch and these are noted on the first page .

123.68 / 1.25 = 98.94

1/4 of 123.68 = 92.76

180 Deg in longitude on the Square of Nine = 103.50 so we are below the Square and in a position to move lower .

270 Deg or 3/4 around the Square = 93.50

360 Deg or a full revolution in price = 83.50

At this point these levels are only an indication and they could be helpful to monitor around the Cycle dates .



The Curve below contains four key reversal dates extending out till the end of July. As outlined previously the 28th June was an intermediate date and it appears that we could be counter trend Top into that date so if you are short at this point ensure that a time based stop is placed just above the 28th June Top price as price is required to stay below this point in order to qualify the Cycle down . If June 28th holds we could be down till the 7th July where Geo Mercury is at Max Nth Declination for a decline of 9 days which will balance against the previous time period into the 22nd June then we could be up till the 14th Jul for counter trend Top where an advance of 18.5 - 20.5% is indicated then down till around Fri 22nd or Mon 25th July for Low . The time between AB = 23 days which is fairly well balanced against the time period of 27 days from 2018 . If we hold below the 28th June Top a drop into the 7th July looks like quite a strong possibility so that is the current focus at present .
I also have current Forecasts of similar detail covering the SP500 Bitcoin Gold and a few other stocks . studentofgann.com.au

 

[peter2]

I hope all that very detailed work is worth it. I should be a little more specific. I know you enjoy the analysis. That's obvious. I hope that your trading activity is as rewarding as your analysis.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Follow up post for Crude . Initially I was expecting a Low into the 28th but it appears to have come in as counter trend Top so if we continue to move down we could be Low on the 7th july then up till the 14th July for Top.

In this letter I will outline some methods and the approach I use to assemble a Forecast . Firstly it is important to determine where you are located within the market and in relation to the Fixed Cycles and Seasonal points on the Square of Nine . By studying past market movements and by deconstructing the swings you can gain a clearer insight as to what Cycle you are running against and the amplitude and duration of those swings. Gann kept several Master Forecasting Charts or Composite Charts for various stocks and commodities which is one of the key factors that allowed him to determine turning points in the market in conjunction with his other various methods. In order to properly understand and decipher what Gann was doing you will need to replicate his Charts and study his books in great detail not just a cursory glance like many people do . Page No 1 outlines the various Cycles which have been broken down into their various price and time components . The first swing down ran into the 20th Jul 2021 Low a decline of 15% in 14 days - the current swing down is around 7 days and 18% into the 22nd June 2022 Low so we have overbalanced the percentage decline but below the time period of 7 days . The second swing ran down 24% in 43 days - third swing ran down 12.69% in 27 days - fourth swing ran down 28.75% in 35 days and then the 2012 ten year Cycle ran down 30% in 119 days so it is important to compare these past time periods against the current position of the market to determine which one we are repeating . Like Gann I keep large Composite charts for various indexes and commodities which allows me to compare the amplitude and duration of past swings against current swings in the market . The notes below are a template however they do provide us with a good visual picture for comparison but the real value lies within the Master Charts which are constructed in a more sequential and clearly defined format . So getting back to the swings outlined on page 1 it is interesting to note that the 2018 swing measures 27 days in time which is very close to the 23 day time period projected out from the 14th June 2022 Top = 7th July where Low is indicated . If the trend does continue to move down into this date and breaks through the 22nd June Low we can use these percentage figures as an indication to the magnitude of the decline so by having a table of percentage decline figures at hand we can quickly calculate if the current swing down is balancing against any of these points as we approach the key Cycle dates . There are a few harmonic price points to watch and these are noted on the first page .

123.68 / 1.25 = 98.94

1/4 of 123.68 = 92.76

180 Deg in longitude on the Square of Nine = 103.50 so we are below the Square and in a position to move lower .

270 Deg or 3/4 around the Square = 93.50

360 Deg or a full revolution in price = 83.50

At this point these levels are only an indication and they could be helpful to monitor around the Cycle dates .



The Curve below contains four key reversal dates extending out till the end of July. As outlined previously the 28th June was an intermediate date and it appears that we could be counter trend Top into that date so if you are short at this point ensure that a time based stop is placed just above the 28th June Top price as price is required to stay below this point in order to qualify the Cycle down . If June 28th holds we could be down till the 7th July where Geo Mercury is at Max Nth Declination for a decline of 9 days which will balance against the previous time period into the 22nd June then we could be up till the 14th Jul for counter trend Top where an advance of 18.5 - 20.5% is indicated then down till around Fri 22nd or Mon 25th July for Low . The time between AB = 23 days which is fairly well balanced against the time period of 27 days from 2018 . If we hold below the 28th June Top a drop into the 7th July looks like quite a strong possibility so that is the current focus at present .
I also have current Forecasts of similar detail covering the SP500 Bitcoin Gold and a few other stocks . studentofgann.com.au



View attachment 143595

View attachment 143596

View attachment 143597

View attachment 143598

Too Much Information for me!!!
or are you on drugs
If not
Please explain your chart above
Does it say anything?
I won't hold my breath!

 

[Student of Gann]

Too Much Information for me!!!
or are you on drugs
If not
Please explain your chart above
Does it say anything?View attachment 143604
I won't hold my breath!

sorry i dont respond to morons

 

[Student of Gann]

Ok there are two scenarios that could play out so I have outlined two different Curves around the two key dates so keep your powder dry till the 7th July and hopefully a few days before that point we should be able to qualify whether the market is setting up for either top or bottom and we can trade out of the Cycle date in the prevailing direction of the market . I also have detailed Forecasts and a projected Low for Bitcoin and the SP500 on my website .

Crude Oil update :

Here is an overview of the previous notes presented a few days ago . There are three Cycles outlined the first is the 2018 swing down into the 18th June Low a decline of 9.41% in 26 days which seems to be a close match to the current time period we are running out so we will come back to this model later in the piece . the second Cycle is 2019 which declined 26% in 105 days so the time period on this swing is far greater than the current 2022 swing which measures around 18% from the 14th June peak into the recent 22nd June Low . If we project a 26% decline down from 123.68 we get 91.53 which is a fair way off and would take us below the 11th April Low so we will just note this percentage decrease as a figure to monitor as we approach any future Cycle points . The third swing is from 2021 a decline of 16.75% in 45 days so the time period is greater than our 2022 projection which I will explain later . and we have already exceeded the percentage decline down to current levels . There are two dates that I am working with and I will try to construct a trading strategy around these two dates so we are looking at trading two swing points which will give us two sections of the market to trade . I would recommend waiting till the 7th July which is only a few days away and then we should have a clear indication as to how the market is setting up into this point . The first scenario is outlined in Curve 1 so if we run up into the 7th July we could be setting up for counter trend Top so if that scenario unfolds over the next few days I will look to refine the Cycle date and see if we can reduce it down to an hourly point but that is predicated on the market moving into a counter trend top on this date and the top will have to be higher than the 29th June to qualify. If this scenario plays out we could be down till the 14th July for Low which is interesting as the time period on the first swing down measures 8 days and the second leg down into the 14th July balances against this count also for a cumulative peak to trough decline of 30 days in between AB which is very close to the 2018 time period of 26 days so there is a chance we could be repeating this pattern so keep your powder dry till the 7th July and we should have a clearer picture at that point . The second scenario is a Low into the 7th July then up till the 14th July for counter trend Top then down till the 8th or 14th August for Low which is in line with previous Lows . If you go back and look at the previous campaigns you will find that August was a Seasonal month for Lows so there is a good chance main trend will be down into one of these dates. If we do get Low into the 7th July we should be up till the 14th July then roll over into August Lows as detailed on the Curve. The time period for this projection measures 23 days which is also very close to the 2018 model at 26 days so it would be prudent to wait a few more days to see which Curve the market is running against . Notice the counter trend Top periods outlined in orange pen are 9 and 10 days which is fairly close to the current counts and also note the percentage increase outlined in green pen is around 13.5% on both swings so I have projected this price up from the 101.53 Low and it equals 115.70 so this price will balance the amplitude of the last two Cycles which will provide us with a gauge if we do move up into the 7th July for counter Top . 101.53 + 1/2 Square = 111.79 we are above this point - 101.53 x 1.125% = 114.22.

OEL Price at posting: 1.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

 

[Student of Gann]

Was initially looking for a Low into this date however it appears the 28th could be counter trend Top . Price calculations listed below .
View attachment 143413

 

[frugal.rock]

Can I introduce you to the BIC 4 colour pen...?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It looks as if WTC and Brent are about to take a journey above $100 pb again after the muppets at OPEC+ decided to put pressure on the Western nations to assist their partner in evil, Russia.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

It looks as if WTC and Brent are about to take a journey above $100 pb again after the muppets at OPEC+ decided to put pressure on the Western nations to assist their partner in evil, Russia.

Alliance of the useful : BRICS, the Arab League, OPEC, the Shanghai Cooperation Org, the Eurasian Economic Union, and don't forget the African Union.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Oil is on a run up again after OPEC+ announced cuts in production.

The US which is running out of shale oil presently seems powerless to exert any pressure on the Saudi cousins.

From the Financial Times.

“There is a belief in Saudi Arabia that the US won’t create a major kerfuffle over higher oil prices, unless they really get out of control,” says Eurasia Group’s Alkadiri. “But when you’re playing with a global superpower that can come back to bite you.”

gg

 

[orr]

I'd be interested in wider input on the Chineese negotiated talks between Iran and tha Saudi's in preceeding period ; And the timing of the production cut on the eve of opec talks ??.. this is now old news.
I don't speak Arabic and even less Chineese... but love watch'n the big game.

 

[divs4ever]

Oil is on a run up again after OPEC+ announced cuts in production.

The US which is running out of shale oil presently seems powerless to exert any pressure on the Saudi cousins.

From the Financial Times.



gg

running out , or running out of land to explore , Biden was putting all sorts of pro-Climate Agenda regulations

i think they expected electricity ( for EVs ) to flow from power points

they had forgotten all the other things oil is used it

 

[Smurf1976]

running out , or running out of land to explore

To my understanding there's an element of both.

As is pretty much always the case in a free market, the oil drillers picked the low hanging fruit first and as time passes, the remaining prospects become progressively inferior in terms of probability of yielding oil, quality of the oil, quantity per $ spent, technical difficulty and so on.

That doesn't lead to an abrupt cessation of drilling but it does see it roll over as it gets harder and one by one individual companies run out of prospects they're willing to take the risk on.

Then there's general inflation. If everything from wages to steel pipe gets more expensive then that increases the cost to explore for and develop oil. In the absence of a corresponding rise in the oil price, that moves the lesser quality projects from go to no go.

My understanding is there's an element of all three at work. Diminishing prospects + cost in inflation + regulation has also hampered some efforts. End result = production growth slows and in due course rolls over and declines.

It's not a coincidence that the previous peak in US oil production in 1970 coincided with an uptick in inflation. They're self-reinforcing since rising oil prices drive inflation whilst inflation renders otherwise viable oil projects unviable without an even greater rise in the oil price. The magic of compound interest and the rising interest environment typically associated with inflation explains why that is so - the project doesn't simply need to generate the same $ return on investment, if the cost goes up it now needs to generate a greater $ profit because most investors are looking for % returns not absolute $ returns when deciding to proceed / not proceed and the required % return itself increases in times of inflation.

 

[noirua]

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Oilprices from around the world.

oilprice.com

Chinese Oil Imports Spike | OilPrice.com

Chinese crude imports reached their highest level since June 2020 last month, with 52.3 million tons of oil imported, up 22% year-on-year.

oilprice.com

 

[mullokintyre]

An Interesting article on fracking from Zero Hedge

The U.S. shale revolution dramatically reshaped the world energy markets. The shale boom was one of the most impressive growth stories, from take off in 2008 to the Permian stealing the mantle from Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar as the world’s highest producing oilfield in a little over a decade. Overall, Reuters has estimated that, “U.S. petroleum production is at least 10-11 million bpd higher than it would have been without horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.’’
“There’s just a lot of oil being left in the ground. Fracking’s been around for a really long time, but the science of fracking is not well understood,” Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference. Woods has revealed that Exxon is currently working on two specific areas to improve fracking. First off, the company is trying to frack more precisely along the well so that more oil-soaked rock gets drained. It’s also looking for ways to keep the fracked cracks open longer so as to boost the flow of oil.

Shale Refracs​

Luckily, the U.S. Shale Patch won’t have to wait for Exxon to perfect its new fracking technologies. There's already a proven technology for oil producers to return to existing wells and give them a second, high-pressure blast to increase output for a fraction of the cost of finishing a new well: shale well refracturing.

Refracturing is an operation designed to restimulate a well after an initial period of production, and can restore well productivity to near original or even higher rates of production as well as extend the productive life of a well. Re-fracking can be something of a booster shot for producers--a quick increase in output for a fraction of the cost of developing a new well.

While refracturing has never really gone mainstream, the technique is seeing higher adoption as drilling technology improves, aging oilfields erode output, and companies try to do more with less. According to a report published in the Journal of Petroleum Technology, new research from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas shows that refractured wells using liners are even capable of outperforming new wells despite the latter benefiting from more modern completion designs.

JPT also estimates that North Dakota’s Bakken Shale straddles some 400 openhole wells capable of generating an excess of $2 billion if refractured. Mind you, that estimate is derived from oil prices at $60/bbl vs. this year’s average oil price of almost $90/bbl. According to Garrett Fowler, chief operating officer for ResFrac, a refrac can be up to 40% cheaper than a new well and double or triple oil flows from aging wells.

Just when you think we are finally running out of oil, up pops something to extend its life.
For how long though is the question.
Mick

 

[farmerge]

An Interesting article on fracking from Zero Hedge

Just when you think we are finally running out of oil, up pops something to extend its life.
For how long though is the question.
Mick

I seem to recall that about 20 years ago the doom sooth sayers were predicting the end is neigh to petroleum production. it was only downhill from there.