Crude Oil update

[Value Collector]

I seem to recall that about 20 years ago the doom sooth sayers were predicting the end is neigh to petroleum production. it was only downhill from there.

technology saved the day and postponed the peak for a little while, if it weren’t for the advances in fracking and horizontal drilling we would be in a different world. Who would have thought that the USA would be a net exporter of oil?

But, these technologies can’t create new oil, they just allow us to pull oil out of the ground that we couldn’t get to in the past, the peak of oil production is still coming, it’s just been delayed.

 

[Smurf1976]

I seem to recall that about 20 years ago the doom sooth sayers were predicting the end is neigh to petroleum production. it was only downhill from there.

It's one of those things where the "what" is certain but the "when" is impossible to predict with accuracy.

Ultimately though it's a finite resource and, so far as is known, one that's fairly limited relative to present consumption.

When supply tops out is hard to forecast but at some point it will.

If you live right beside the river then it's going to flood someday. Raising concern and taking action might be premature but it's not unreasonable as such, at some point you're stuffed if you haven't done it.

 

[divs4ever]

Exxon "Days Away" From Buying Shale Giant Pioneer In "Seismic Deal" That Will Reshape US Energy​

Exxon "Days Away" From Buying Shale Giant Pioneer In "Seismic Deal" That Will Reshape US Energy | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

hmmm i wonder how that will affect the ESG rating ( will it still score higher than Tesla ? )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

" Its the economy, Stupid."

I despair sometimes of so called experts. Markets closed on the weekend assuring muppets that oil was heading lower.

It is Not. And nor will it in this crazy f**ked up world.

Nor is Gold nor other harder Commodities.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

It's one of those things where the "what" is certain but the "when" is impossible to predict with accuracy.

Ultimately though it's a finite resource and, so far as is known, one that's fairly limited relative to present consumption.

When supply tops out is hard to forecast but at some point it will.

If you live right beside the river then it's going to flood someday. Raising concern and taking action might be premature but it's not unreasonable as such, at some point you're stuffed if you haven't done it.

I heard a guy once say “if something can’t go on forever, it eventually stops” I think he is correct, whether we have 20 years or 80 years left of cheap oil is up for debate, but we know it will eventually end.

 

[farmerge]

" Its the economy, Stupid."

I despair sometimes of so called experts. Markets closed on the weekend assuring muppets that oil was heading lower.

It is Not. And nor will it in this crazy f**ked up world.

Nor is Gold nor other harder Commodities.

gg

gg bowser pump price of petrol in out little hamlet dropped 22c at the end of last week. Unfortunately diesel did not follow. We have 2 servos so there is a minor battle on for the passing trade coming in from the eastern country towns.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

gg bowser pump price of petrol in out little hamlet dropped 22c at the end of last week. Unfortunately diesel did not follow. We have 2 servos so there is a minor battle on for the passing trade coming in from the eastern country towns.

Your best protection against a rise in bowser prices, in my experience, is to buy energy stocks. I agree bowser is affected by other factors, however I'm predicting a 50% rise at bowser by the end of January.

Now I'm not tryin' to start a panic or somesuch ...

Even nonesuch, know what I mean.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Your best protection against a rise in bowser prices, in my experience, is to buy energy stocks. I agree bowser is affected by other factors, however I'm predicting a 50% rise at bowser by the end of January.

Now I'm not tryin' to start a panic or somesuch ...

Even nonesuch, know what I mean.

gg

Bought 25 litres unleaded petrol for emergency firefighting this morning bowser price was $1.796 and then Iget the GST back also.

 

[mullokintyre]

There is a significant hurricane working its way towards the carribean.
The forecasts vary a bit after that, but if a CAT5 hurricane moves its way across Texas, and puts some of the refinery infrastructure out of action for any length of time, it will put a bit of panic among the oilers.
Maybe worth buying some gambling on futures or ETF's.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Oil drops to near six month lows on reserves build up.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Oil drops to near six month lows on reserves build up.
View attachment 182155
Mick

And oil continues to drop.
At these prices, a lot of the US shale producers will be shutting up shop.
Trumps request that we drill baby drill maybe like the sound of one hand clapping, not to many drillers will be doing the job if the returns are below costs,
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

And oil continues to drop.
At these prices, a lot of the US shale producers will be shutting up shop.
Trumps request that we drill baby drill maybe like the sound of one hand clapping, not to many drillers will be doing the job if the returns are below costs,
Mick

View attachment 200073

That is call economic war, do you think Russia, Saudis or China are crying?

 

[divs4ever]

That is call economic war, do you think Russia, Saudis or China are crying?

maybe a silent tear or two , but i don't see any wailing and sobbing

 

[mullokintyre]

That is call economic war, do you think Russia, Saudis or China are crying?

China will not be crying seeing as they are an importer of fossil fuels.
Russia and Saudi Arabia will be hurting for sure.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

China will not be crying seeing as they are an importer of fossil fuels.
Russia and Saudi Arabia will be hurting for sure.
Mick

maybe not as much as some as the US and China are trying to increase the power sourced from nuclear ( unlike the EU )

a big windfall for places like Africa and some Latin American nations

 

[qldfrog]

China will not be crying seeing as they are an importer of fossil fuels.
Russia and Saudi Arabia will be hurting for sure.
Mick

But short term only for the pain if they can bring back US dependency imho.
Might be wrong but Russia will sell to China for cheap but more than they would get in the west.
On the short term, good for us consumers

 

[divs4ever]

But short term only for the pain if they can bring back US dependency imho.
Might be wrong but Russia will sell to China for cheap but more than they would get in the west.
On the short term, good for us consumers

Russia's ace in the hole is willingness to sell in long-term contracts , none of this silly futures/spot price manipulation

and none of this (must be in US Dollar ) currency rubbish either

but Russia , Iran , Venezuela , maybe parts of Africa , going to be tough to stop oil flowing into China ( without being nuked for doing so )

 

[farmerge]

Russia's ace in the hole is willingness to sell in long-term contracts , none of this silly futures/spot price manipulation

and none of this (must be in US Dollar ) currency rubbish either

but Russia , Iran , Venezuela , maybe parts of Africa , going to be tough to stop oil flowing into China ( without being nuked for doing so )

So what would the currency of choice be for any oil leaving Russia.

 

[divs4ever]

the Russians are quite happy to accept yuan , rupees and gold

but chances are they buy Chinese EVs and electronics and pharmaceuticals instead , and the Chinese would be happy with that as well

 

[Smurf1976]

Russia's ace in the hole is willingness to sell in long-term contracts , none of this silly futures/spot price manipulation

The industry has a very different structure in different countries.

US = shareholder and privately owned companies making their own decisions in their own perceived interests.

OPEC, Russia = government either outright running the industry or at least very heavily controlling it with a long term strategic focus.

For the US rig count, data I can find says 465 drilling for oil and 98 drilling for gas as of 23 May. For reference on 24 May 2024 that was 497 drilling for oil and 99 for gas and on 26 May 2023 it was 570 for oil and 137 for gas.

So it's coming down slowly but surely.