Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[Chronos-Plutus]

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coro...suggests/66033f41-fb10-4a5c-ba24-ba733119e93e
"Sometime in the middle of January, there was a change that allowed the virus to become more infectious. It doesn't mean it's more lethal," Haseltine said.
"It makes it about 10 times more infectious."
Other researchers have suspected this. In April, Bette Korber of Los Alamos National Laboratory and colleagues published their concerns, also on BioRxiv, calling the D614G mutation "of urgent concern" because it had become by far the most common strain spreading in Europe and the US.

Best of luck with the vaccine IMO.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coro...suggests/66033f41-fb10-4a5c-ba24-ba733119e93e
"Sometime in the middle of January, there was a change that allowed the virus to become more infectious. It doesn't mean it's more lethal," Haseltine said.
"It makes it about 10 times more infectious."
Other researchers have suspected this. In April, Bette Korber of Los Alamos National Laboratory and colleagues published their concerns, also on BioRxiv, calling the D614G mutation "of urgent concern" because it had become by far the most common strain spreading in Europe and the US.

Best of luck with the vaccine IMO.

I think our international borders will be shut for a long time. Domestically we should be okay to getting back to normal.

 

[qldfrog]

I think our international borders will be shut for a long time. Domestically we should be okay to getting back to normal.

That will probably be true with so many exemptions it will not be funny, but agree that for common people like us, prisoners in our own country
The jets will carry on as will lobbies target: os students and probably even migrants

 

[Dona Ferentes]

That will probably be true with so many exemptions it will not be funny, but agree that for common people like us, prisoners in our own country
The jets will carry on as will lobbies target: os students and probably even migrants

One way travel with quarantine.... YES
Business travel ... diminished but happening, and likely quarantine... YES
Short term tourism... Nah

 

[qldfrog]

One way travel with quarantine.... YES
Business travel ... diminished but happening, and likely quarantine... YES
Short term tourism... Nah

You will not see business travel with 14days quarantine, that is a given so either we end up isolating ourselves from the world or we accept reopening
By 1/07 France is reopening to not only eu but selected other countries..
We could paradoxically pay a high economic price of our too? successful virus control.we eradicate it then are stuck in limbo
The cynical in me would see the solution in letting the virus..second wave ...develop a bit
If successful we rejoin the world if not, we start again the whole mess 6months after the rest of the world and end up really really screwed

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

That will probably be true with so many exemptions it will not be funny, but agree that for common people like us, prisoners in our own country
The jets will carry on as will lobbies target: os students and probably even migrants

Overseas students must NOT be allowed back into our country. If they bring the virus back into Australia or they get the virus in Australia, they may end up taking a needed ICU bed for an Australian citizen. Australians must come first and Australians have sacrificed too much to allow this to happen.
It will be political suicide for the government to allow overseas students into our country while other nations around the world are being hit with second waves and/or are still crippled with the virus.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

One way travel with quarantine.... YES
Business travel ... diminished but happening, and likely quarantine... YES
Short term tourism... Nah

China is heading back into lockdown I hear. There is no way we can open our international borders, even with exemptions.
Can you imagine the outrage if Australia had to go back into lockdown again because the Federal government allowed the virus back into our nation, which caused a mass outbreak, that led to our hospitals being overwhelmed, where ICU beds were being occupied by foreigners.

 

[basilio]

More information about the early spread of the Coronavirus in Italy.
It would be interesting to see if there is any similar examples in the US or other countries.

Italy: Covid-19 was present in two big cities two months before first case was detected
The coronavirus was present in two large Italian cities in December, more than two months before the first case was detected, a national health institute study of waste water has found.

That suggests the virus appeared in Italy around the same time it was first reported in China.

Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.

Italy’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.

The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.

They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added.

The results feed into an effort by scientists around the world to trace the virus’s family tree.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ster-figures-who-vaccine-doses-latest-updates

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Why is Daniel Andrews so quiet about all the protests taking place in Melbourne?

 

[basilio]

Why is Daniel Andrews so quiet about all the protests taking place in Melbourne?

Because it hasn't had an impact on COVID infections in Victoria.
There are 25 new infections which is a big jump. They have all been traced to existing outbreaks and people still congregating with families even when they know they have COVID 19.
Daniel Andrews tells reporters that half of all the new cases in Victoria since April have been from family-to-family transmission. He says he is “disappointed” by the behaviour reported by health authorities.

I’m frustrated by it, I’m disappointed by it, but it’s appropriate that we be really upfront and describe it so people can understand what’s driving these numbers.

We have had cases of people gathering in large numbers, everybody at their home or another family member’s home or a close friend’s home, even though they had been told to isolate in their own home.

We have even had people who have tested positive and have been told to go home and isolate and instead they have gone to work. Instead, they have gone and visited loved ones in large numbers. We have had many stories, numerous stories, of families that have given it to each other and have then transmitted the virus to other families, who in turn have passed it on to a third group.

It is unacceptable that families anywhere in our state can, just because they want this to be over, pretend that it is. It is not over.

....According to the press release distributed at the media conference in Melbourne this afternoon, the number of guests people can have in their home will be reduced to five, and restaurants and pubs will have to remain at the limit of 20 guests until at least 12 July.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ses-as-australia-seeks-to-prevent-second-wave

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Because it hasn't had an impact on COVID infections in Victoria.
There are 25 new infections which is a big jump. They have all been traced to existing outbreaks and people still congregating with families even when they know they have COVID 19.
Daniel Andrews tells reporters that half of all the new cases in Victoria since April have been from family-to-family transmission. He says he is “disappointed” by the behaviour reported by health authorities.

I’m frustrated by it, I’m disappointed by it, but it’s appropriate that we be really upfront and describe it so people can understand what’s driving these numbers.

We have had cases of people gathering in large numbers, everybody at their home or another family member’s home or a close friend’s home, even though they had been told to isolate in their own home.

We have even had people who have tested positive and have been told to go home and isolate and instead they have gone to work. Instead, they have gone and visited loved ones in large numbers. We have had many stories, numerous stories, of families that have given it to each other and have then transmitted the virus to other families, who in turn have passed it on to a third group.

It is unacceptable that families anywhere in our state can, just because they want this to be over, pretend that it is. It is not over.

....According to the press release distributed at the media conference in Melbourne this afternoon, the number of guests people can have in their home will be reduced to five, and restaurants and pubs will have to remain at the limit of 20 guests until at least 12 July.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ses-as-australia-seeks-to-prevent-second-wave

Coronavirus cases in Victoria rise by 18, including retail worker who attended Black Lives Matter protest (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12368000)

How can Daniel Andrews be so demanding on the rest of the citizens in Victoria, yet give those that protest a free pass.

 

[basilio]

How can Daniel Andrews be so demanding on the rest of the citizens in Victoria, yet give those that protest a free pass.

Daniel Andrews’ simple message to protesters: ‘Go home!’
...Mr Andrews said people should not be protesting.
“I think that we could not have been clearer and I have a message for the people out there protesting today. Go home! Go home!” he said.
“You’re not doing your cause any good. And you’re potentially putting other people at risk. Could I possibly be any clearer than that?”
“The protests the other weekend, we advised against it. We urged people not to do it.
“We allowed Victoria Police to play their role. It is for them to determine what an appropriate response is and they’ve been very clear about what their response would be.

“It was peaceful. But it was certainly not helpful when it comes to the general community view about where we’re at.
https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...e/news-story/04cf6c4095d33ee2a3d22968cbb4e646

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Daniel Andrews’ simple message to protesters: ‘Go home!’
...Mr Andrews said people should not be protesting.
“I think that we could not have been clearer and I have a message for the people out there protesting today. Go home! Go home!” he said.
“You’re not doing your cause any good. And you’re potentially putting other people at risk. Could I possibly be any clearer than that?”
“The protests the other weekend, we advised against it. We urged people not to do it.
“We allowed Victoria Police to play their role. It is for them to determine what an appropriate response is and they’ve been very clear about what their response would be.

“It was peaceful. But it was certainly not helpful when it comes to the general community view about where we’re at.
https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...e/news-story/04cf6c4095d33ee2a3d22968cbb4e646

Initially it looked like he had double standards. I have a bit more respect for Daniel Andrews now.

 

[macca]

Hopefully other nations will take notice, Indonesia has been studying the health of their CV19 victims

<<In one study which looked at data from 780 hospital patients in Indonesia, those with a vitamin D level between 20 nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) and 30 ng/mL had a sevenfold higher risk of death than those with a level above 30 ng/mL. Having a level below 20 ng/mL was associated with a 12 times higher risk of death. >>
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/...d=20200622Z2&et_cid=DM573746&et_rid=899317044

People with dark skin need much more exposure to sunlight than people with lighter skin to make the same amount Vit D.

Those living on colder climates are often deficient in Vit D, especially older people who tend to stay indoors.

Not a coincidence that they have had such a terrible time with Vit D in Northern Hemisphere

 

[basilio]

The ABC has a detailed analysis of the current outbreaks and hot spots for COVID 19.
Its interesting to see that the outbreaks are largely associated with a few families which seem to have spread the virus through various extended family members and the schools their children attend.

Why Hume, Casey, Brimbank, Moreland, Cardinia and Darebin are Victoria's coronavirus hotspots
Six local government areas in Melbourne's west, north and south-east are under the spotlight as identified hotspots for coronavirus transmission.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said family gatherings and people not remaining in self-quarantine while COVID-positive had led to a recent surge in community transmission of coronavirus in particular areas.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...s-in-melbourne-victoria-darebin-hume/12379090

 

[basilio]

This article expands on the ABC story.

Interestingly enough the BLM matter demonstartion appears to have resulted in no spread of any infection.
Did the black lives matter protests cause this uptick?

On Monday the Victorian chief health officer said that it wasn’t the rallies that caused this rise in cases.

“I don’t think the Black Lives Matter protest has contributed. We are not seeing people who have clearly acquired it there,” he said on Monday.

On Monday Mikakos confirmed a fourth person who attended the protest tested positive, but it’s believed they did not acquire the virus there. They were a staff member at an H&M at Northland Shopping Centre in the local government area of Darebin, which is the centre of a small cluster.

Of the around 30,000 attendees only four cases have been recorded, with no evidence that the virus was transmitted at the protest.

ttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/coronavirus-victoria-covid-19-melbourne-outbreak-hotspots

 

[moXJO]

This article expands on the ABC story.

Interestingly enough the BLM matter demonstartion appears to have resulted in no spread of any infection.
Did the black lives matter protests cause this uptick?

On Monday the Victorian chief health officer said that it wasn’t the rallies that caused this rise in cases.

“I don’t think the Black Lives Matter protest has contributed. We are not seeing people who have clearly acquired it there,” he said on Monday.

On Monday Mikakos confirmed a fourth person who attended the protest tested positive, but it’s believed they did not acquire the virus there. They were a staff member at an H&M at Northland Shopping Centre in the local government area of Darebin, which is the centre of a small cluster.

Of the around 30,000 attendees only four cases have been recorded, with no evidence that the virus was transmitted at the protest.

ttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/coronavirus-victoria-covid-19-melbourne-outbreak-hotspots

Bit hard to believe.
Did they trace every person at the rally?
Bit early to make this claim imo.

If it's true then they need to re-open the economy.

 

[basilio]

Bit hard to believe.
Did they trace every person at the rally?
Bit early to make this claim imo.

If it's true then they need to re-open the economy.

Che ? The rally was 18 days ago. So far 4 people have turned up with COVID who were at the rally. However the medics have established that they became infected through other contacts.

The rally didn't cause any infections. However a handful of families are spreading the virus which is why the government is tightening controls. That was the main point of the stories I posted.

 

[moXJO]

Che ? The rally was 18 days ago. So far 4 people have turned up with COVID who were at the rally. However the medics have established that they became infected through other contacts.

The rally didn't cause any infections. However a handful of families are spreading the virus which is why the government is tightening controls. That was the main point of the stories I posted.

How do they know?
Covid isn't always serious enough to go to hospital. It's a bit early to say no one caught anything unless they went to every protestor and checked.

 

[basilio]

How do they know?
Covid isn't always serious enough to go to hospital. It's a bit early to say no one caught anything unless they went to every protestor and checked.

Absolutely. And your welcome to make up any figure you want about how many people were infected at the demo....100, 500, 1000 ?
Having said that... If in fact there was any significant infections by now these people would have passed it along to family and friends. It would be spreading rapidly. One would think these would eventually be picked up as illnesses or random testing.

But that hasn't happened.

The causes of the current community spread outbreaks have been identified. If you read the story you would be alarmed at how quickly and easily it seems to move through the extended family groups and into schools etc. There has been no suggestion that any of these outbreaks had anything to do with the rally.

 

[qldfrog]

Vit D
Not a coincidence that they have had such a terrible time with Vit D in Northern Hemisphere
Especially in winter
Question: how much money is there in asking people to get some sun and buy 20$ worth of supplement for the next 6 month?

Not much, better lock them down in the south under rain and clouds