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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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I agree. As an engineer I can tell you in real life nothing is absolute.
I read something very similar to this article in New Scientist about 4 months ago. It may be the future one day.
 
IFocus said:
I wonder what happens next another variant turns up then push replay?
Click to expand...
I suppose that is the real issue, Moderna says they will have a vaccine for omicron by the middle of the year, so we have lockdowns and wait.
Then by the time 90% are vaccinated another variant arrives, so we have lockdowns for another year and so it goes on until the economy collapses, then we let it rip even if it is the worst variant because we will have run out of options.
Interesting times.
 
a
sptrawler said:
I suppose that is the real issue, Moderna says they will have a vaccine for omicron by the middle of the year, so we have lockdowns and wait.
Then by the time 90% are vaccinated another variant arrives, so we have lockdowns for another year and so it goes on until the economy collapses, then we let it rip even if it is the worst variant because we will have run out of options.
Interesting times.
Click to expand...
Watching Stan's 'Station 11' with my son and the virus kills everyone first day. Great show, highly recommend. (Was written before the pandemic and he had to study it for English final year).

The vaccine still works just not as effective and a booster is worth having.
SA figures show that 80% in hospital are unvaccinated from a 90% vaccinated population so the maths is pretty simple.

Even previously catching the virus doesn't stop you catching Omicron (though you will be in effect vaccinated).
 
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Knobby22 said:
The vaccine still works just not as effective and a booster is worth having.
SA figures show that 80% in hospital are unvaccinated from a 90% vaccinated population so the maths is pretty simple.

Even previously catching the virus doesn't stop you catching Omicron (though you will be in effect vaccinated).
Click to expand...
Which really highlights sooner or later the let it rip option has to be adopted.
Waiting for the next strain and the next vaccine, is just delaying the inevitable.
IMO it is better to let a mild strain go through quickly and develop some herd immunity, than to allow it to fester and mutate into something really sinister which will happen eventually.
 
Current impact of Covid on health systems.

07:53

Peter Hannam

In many parts of the country hospitals are under stress, as more patients turn up for treatment and many staff are required to be absent because of Covid.

As we reported, these hospitals range from the very large – such as Melbourne’s Alfred hospital or the much smaller, including Byron Central hospital in northern NSW.

The rise in cases means hospitals are nearing capacity. One concern worrying health officials is there will be an unexpected event, such as a train or bus crash, that will suddenly present a lot of people needing urgent care but with no beds spare.

Another issue looming in the near future is the resignation of exhausted medical or other staff, tired of the demand for long overtime or even bullying or abuse from patients unhappy at the attention they are receiving.

At Byron, which is without its two top executives because of resignations, three more senior emergency department staff have quit, according to a nurse from the Nurses and Midwives Association. The trio includes the ED’s nursing unit manager.

According to one Facebook post from the region, “currently four doctors and eight nurses who work in Byron hospital are off sick with Covid. My friend says that none of this is due to poor practices, they are just being swamped with cases. Instead of being offered sick pay or worker’s compensation, they have been told to use their leave entitlements/holidays.”

www.theguardian.com

Children’s vaccination program starts – as it happened

This blog is now closed
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Similar issues are popping up across the country.
 
@basilio it is an awfull situation, last year my daughter who works in a library and has two young children, had to take all here annual leave and all her long service leave at half pay to look after the kids during lockdowns.
 
Knobby22 said:
a
Watching Stan's 'Station 11' with my son and the virus kills everyone first day. Great show, highly recommend. (Was written before the pandemic and he had to study it for English final year).

The vaccine still works just not as effective and a booster is worth having.
SA figures show that 80% in hospital are unvaccinated from a 90% vaccinated population so the maths is pretty simple.

Even previously catching the virus doesn't stop you catching Omicron (though you will be in effect vaccinated).
Click to expand...

COVID-19 update 31 December 2021 | SA Health

There have been 2,093 new cases of COVID-19 reported today. There have been 11,078 cases reported in South Australia to date.
www.sahealth.sa.gov.au www.sahealth.sa.gov.au

COVID-19 dashboard | SA Health

Statistical information and maps about the occurrence of cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Australia
www.sahealth.sa.gov.au www.sahealth.sa.gov.au

As of the 31st the numbers in hospital are: 65% vaccinated, 35% unvaccinated. I can't find a recent official update published by the government. The dashboard which is updated does not show vaccination status.

There is something strange with the reporting. Last Wednesday the SA premier said there were 12 cases in ICU - 50/50 split. On Saturday there were 16 cases in ICU according to media. Assuming no one left ICU within 3 days and all new cases were unvaccinated that still gives me 6 vaccinated 10 unvaccinated. Which is 62% unvaccinated in ICU vs 38% vaccinated - But the media is saying its 80% unvaccinated. It's possible that within 3 days 3 cases came out of ICU and all new cases were unvaccinated but I'm not sure I believe that.

Mr Marshall said 80 per cent of patients in ICU were not vaccinated.

"My strong message again to South Australians is we've got to get ourselves vaccinated," he said.
 
On the weekend I travelled down to deadly Melbourne and helped my daughter shift house (again!!).
She works at the Alfred in allied health, and has had more COVID tests than I have hairs on my head.
This morning she phoned to say that on Friday night, she had dinner with three other girls, who worked in the hospital., one of whom has tested positive for the Rona.
This girl got her positive PCR test results last night a week after she had her routine test.
She immediately did a RAT test which was negative, as did my daughter.
Both my wife and I did RAT tests and had negative results.
If it takes a week to get a test result, it rather defeats the purpose of the testing .
The positive testing girl had zero symptoms has no idea how long she was infectious, and was very surprised at the positive result.
The question is, was her positive result a false positive, a case of mixed up identity, are there now citizens walking around with natural immunity, or is there some other explanation?
I guess its one of Rusfelds known unknowns.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
The positive testing girl had zero symptoms has no idea how long she was infectious, and was very surprised at the positive result.
The question is, was her positive result a false positive, a case of mixed up identity, are there now citizens walking around with natural immunity, or is there some other explanation?

Mick
Click to expand...
Or is it a case of her symptoms are so mild, as to not be noticed?
Like I said a couple of days ago Rafa had full blown covid a couple of weeks ago, yesterday he won the Adelaide tennis tournament, even the more serious earlier strains of covid only had a mortality rate a a few percent and they were mainly old or had some underlying health issue.
The problem now IMO, the general public is so freaked out at the mention of covid, they just about want to sign up for voluntary euthanasia, if they test positive. :eek:
 
sptrawler said:
Or is it a case of her symptoms are so mild, as to not be noticed?
Like I said a couple of days ago Rafa had full blown covid a couple of weeks ago, yesterday he won the Adelaide tennis tournament, even the more serious earlier strains of covid only had a mortality rate a a few percent and they were mainly old or had some underlying health issue.
The problem now IMO, the general public is so freaked out at the mention of covid, they just about want to sign up for voluntary euthanasia, if they test positive. :eek:
Click to expand...
1 in 450 Americans officially died of the former strain and it was actually higher in reality. Sure thats less than 1%. Being over 60 is an underlying condition as many died of strokes etc. I personally know a lady with 4 kids who survived but her lungs are so badly damaged she can no longer walk more than a few steps. Not just death.

Thank God this new variant is weaker.
 
sptrawler said:
Which really highlights sooner or later the let it rip option has to be adopted.
Waiting for the next strain and the next vaccine, is just delaying the inevitable.
IMO it is better to let a mild strain go through quickly and develop some herd immunity, than to allow it to fester and mutate into something really sinister which will happen eventually.
Click to expand...

Its the devils choice let it rip over run the hospitals, then the next variant turns up glad I am not in the drivers seat
 
IFocus said:
Its the devils choice let it rip over run the hospitals, then the next variant turns up glad I am not in the drivers seat
Click to expand...
Its certainly a hard call but anything can still come out of Africa, getting some form of natural immunity through the population is imperative, it probably just buys the drug companies more time to get ahead of the curve.
 
And now we have this situation, a large American Insurance Company states publicly that unexplained deaths in the 18-64 group are up FORTY percent.



Quote of official statement

“Our data shows an increase in death rates in our business across the U.S., which aligns with what we’re seeing in national industry data. It is also in alignment with national publicly available data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Based upon our analysis of this national data, there has been a 40% increase in death rates for 18- to 64-year-old individuals across the U.S., when comparing Q3 2021 data to pre-pandemic data from the same period in 2019.
During the third quarter of 2021, the CDC reported approximately 50,600 deaths in the 18-64 age group were due to COVID, while they reported 252,000 deaths overall during that same period for the 18-64 age group. The CDC defines only those individuals where COVID is listed on the death certificate as a cause/contributing factor in death in that total, but does not include other deaths which may be linked to co-morbidities or other COVID-19 influenced factors (delay in seeking medical care, inability to access medical care, etc.).
We are not aware of any studies that have been conducted, but reference national CDC and industry data to inform our reporting.
Our company privacy policies do not permit us to discuss or provide information regarding customer claims.
Further national information and data can be found on the CDC website at https://www.cdc.gov/ and the Society of Actuaries at https://www.soa.org/ These are the national resources from which we obtain our data. Also, the Association of Life Insurers (ACLI) is a trade organization that represents us and other insurance carriers on a national scale.

Additional detail regarding the 40 percent increase in death rates​

The graph [at top of story], which represents publicly reported death rates from the CDC for 18-64 age groups from 2019-21, demonstrates trends and the significant impacts of COVID-19. Based on the U.S. population, there are an estimated 200 million people between the ages of 18 and 64. CDC statistics (in green) show the baseline pre-pandemic death rates in the center of the graph, listed at 100%. The blue line, representing 2020 trends, begins to show COVID impact in Q2 of 2020. The black line represents 2021 deaths in this age group and peaks in Q3 (with the most recently available data through the end of Q3). Using actual CDC reported death totals, 2019 (pre-pandemic) recorded 172,000 deaths during that three-month period. CDC data from Q3 2021 shows 250,000 actual deaths (or a 45% increase over the baseline expectation) for this age group, typically the working age population. Of that total, 50,600 were attributed by the CDC to COVID.
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1641789042472.png
 
Interesting stuff around today................

Channel Nine is actually telling people how to treat themselves at home, is the bubble about to Pop.

Is Covid still "untreatable" and a vax the only solution or are we actually going to see some common sense.

What are some remedies for treating the virus at home?​

Much like treating the common cold of flu, mild symptoms of COVID-19 can be managed in a similar way at home.
Regular doses of paracetamol or ibuprofen can be used to relieve pain and lower fevers. Lozenges can be used to sooth symptoms of a sore throat, as well as products containing electrolytes, and regular intake of fluids to keep the body hydrated.

Other methods such as breathing in steam using a vaporiser and applying a damp cloth to the forehead may also relieve some discomfort.
More details on how to manage specific symptoms and pain can be found here.

What should I avoid while sick?​

While recovering from COVID-19, it's important that you let your body rest. While vaccinations will reduce the severity of the disease, your body needs time to combat the infection and lots of sleep and recuperation is essential.
Specific things to avoid include: strenuous activities, exercise, alcohol and drinks with high levels of caffeine.

Now all we have to do is shout from the roof tops "get some sunshine onya skin" and we may surf Omicron back to some sort of normal life

www.9news.com.au

As Omicron surges, here's the best way to treat COVID-19 at home

www.9news.com.au www.9news.com.au
 
moXJO said:
Is WA borders still shut?

God, I didn't even notice.
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Yes W.A has successfully kept the virus out, but with that it has created its own problems, a lot of people have been reluctant to get vaccinated due to the perception it isn't required.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...t-over-90-percent-target-20211110-p597uh.html

So now if the borders are opened it will be a very unpopular move, I mean very, very unpopular as most West Australians would prefer to just keep the borders closed.
So it looks like we are getting ready, after 2 years of bliss.


www.abc.net.au

Mark McGowan slams Commonwealth over COVID supplies, as vaccinations open for children

Premier Mark McGowan says WA has been snubbed by the Commonwealth with supplies of rapid antigen tests and vaccines as young children become eligible for the jab.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
sptrawler said:
Yes W.A has successfully kept the virus out, but with that it has created its own problems, a lot of people have been reluctant to get vaccinated due to the perception it isn't required.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...t-over-90-percent-target-20211110-p597uh.html

So now if the borders are opened it will be a very unpopular move, I mean very, very unpopular as most West Australians would prefer to just keep the borders closed.
So it looks like we are getting ready, after 2 years of bliss.


www.abc.net.au

Mark McGowan slams Commonwealth over COVID supplies, as vaccinations open for children

Premier Mark McGowan says WA has been snubbed by the Commonwealth with supplies of rapid antigen tests and vaccines as young children become eligible for the jab.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
MaoGowan also channelling Gunner/Macron, and other petty despots in the last few days.

I'm anticipating the distribution of special armbands for the faithful soon.
 
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