Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[rederob]

Huh? You are surely not suggesting that VAERS is rubbish misinformation??

The disclaimers on VAERS have been posted many times.
You refuse to accept causation.
And you refuse to rely on Australian data.
But you happily post from antivaxxer sites without understanding why their data is not worth a cracker.
That's poor form.

 

[wayneL]

Notwithstanding that covid is a very unpleasant thing to endure, some context:

 

[barney]

Why are you persisting @barney?
Australian data shows that whatever claims you are making have no reliable basis, and the sites you go to are rubbish.
The only thing I see as alarming is your continuing reliance of misinformation and an abysmal understanding of data.

@rederob Its a fair question by the way. "Why am I persisting?"

I assure you Red, I am not some crazy man. I genuinely believe that the vaccines are not safe (enough), to be pumping into the worlds population at the rates they are, when the initial safety and efficacy data is questionable at best.

The fact that the folk who control all the data we get from the US continue to be evasive about showing said data, just makes me more suspicious and vaccine cautious.

So in essence, if the vaccines do prove to be more harmful that what we are led to believe, and that is what I genuinely feel at present,

It is my duty as a responsible person to tell others why, because it may actually save them some harm (If I happen to be correct).

If it turns out I am incorrect, everyone can rightly say," yep he was a crazy man, we all knew it"

(Please send me a birthday card to psych ward 11 by the way )

At the very least and right from the very beginning, my real distress is giving partially tested mRNA vaccines to young people

And now young children. This is not clever Science. No one alive can convince me that there is any advantage in jabbing young kids

Especially now that the current "vaccines" are failing with Omicron ... why is anyone injecting their young kids


Now in saying all the above rant ..... I admit the % of vax injuries (if true), are mathematically small-ish compared to the amount of jabs administered, and the fact that my close friends/family seem to have faired ok so far post vax does rattle around in the back of my brain when I throw up info as per previous posts. So I do question myself about both sides. It is an ongoing dilemma till proven otherwise.

 

[wayneL]

@barney as a personal anecdote, I now know 3 people who have had strokes very soon after the pfizer vaccine.

Yes, as you say it is a fairly small number, compared to the number of people I know who have had the vaccines.

However as myself and many others have stated before we must evaluate these things on a risk reward proposition, and especially considering the age stratificationof the "vaccinated" vs the infected.

There is an age stratum above which the current vaccines do have a positive risk reward ratio... And of course a stratum below, which of course the risk reward ratio is negative.

But, it is not really as simple as that and defining where that level is. There is also the consideration of general health and serious comorbidities.

This is why the vaccine should be completely voluntary and folks should satisfy themselves as to their risk reward ratio.

Omicron is a another spanner in the works as far as calculating the statistics, in that it skews risk and reward in areas which we are only just learning about.

I like this to volatility trading in options and the concept of implied volatility... AKA implied risk.

Given further data we may be able to quantify that more accurately but for the moment it is simply that, implied risk.

Can you imagine wherebuy a government would mandate people with a stock portfolio to buy a certain series of put options?

That is precisely the scenario that we are being sold via this particular series of supposed vaccinations. We have not eliminated any sort of overall risk whatsoever, but we have reshaped the risk curve.

Who says that the shaping of risk is beneficial for any single individual? That is for the individual risk taker to ascertain and the government should well and truly **** right off in that regard.

IMNTBCHO

 

[barney]

With respect @barney in regard to VAERS are you aware of the concept of sample size? There is a formulae for it.

I have a broad understanding but don't know how to apply it to VAERS data ..... Will look into it. Cheers

 

[rederob]

So in essence, if the vaccines do prove to be more harmful that what we are led to believe, and that is what I genuinely feel at present,

At no time have you shown this to be the case!

It is my duty as a responsible person to tell others why, because it may actually save them some harm (If I happen to be correct).

We have millions of data records for Australia that you refuse to rely on.

No one alive can convince me that there is any advantage in jabbing young kids

Looks like nobody can convince you because you won't accept the data on causation.

Especially now that the current "vaccines" are failing with Omicron ... why is anyone injecting their young kids

In fact vaccines are not failing with Omicron, as hospitalisation rates are lower than for Delta, and death rates are a bit early to glean, but the trend was down while hospitalisations had stabilised. While the risk to reward ratio declines as vaccines are given younger age groups, the fact remains that outcomes for the unvaxxed are consistently proven worse across all ages from 5 years upwards.

It is an ongoing dilemma till proven otherwise.

Billions of vaccinations have taken place and proven your concerns to be unwarranted in the main as severe adverse reactions are rare, so the dilemma sits on your unwillingness to accept what is known.

 

[wayneL]

@barney as a personal anecdote, I now know 3 people who have had strokes very soon after the pfizer vaccine.

Yes, as you say it is a fairly small number, compared to the number of people I know who have had the vaccines.

However as myself and many others have stated before we must evaluate these things on a risk reward proposition, and especially considering the age stratificationof the "vaccinated" vs the infected.

There is an age stratum above which the current vaccines do have a positive risk reward ratio... And of course a stratum below, which of course the risk reward ratio is negative.

But, it is not really as simple as that and defining where that level is. There is also the consideration of general health and serious comorbidities.

This is why the vaccine should be completely voluntary and folks should satisfy themselves as to their risk reward ratio.

Omicron is a another spanner in the works as far as calculating the statistics, in that it skews risk and reward in areas which we are only just learning about.

I like this to volatility trading in options and the concept of implied volatility... AKA implied risk.

Given further data we may be able to quantify that more accurately but for the moment it is simply that, implied risk.

Can you imagine wherebuy a government would mandate people with a stock portfolio to buy a certain series of put options?

That is precisely the scenario that we are being sold via this particular series of supposed vaccinations. We have not eliminated any sort of overall risk whatsoever, but we have reshaped the risk curve.

Who says that the shaping of risk is beneficial for any single individual? That is for the individual risk taker to ascertain and the government should well and truly **** right off in that regard.

IMNTBCHO

I would just like to make a further clarification with regards to what I mean by implied volatility vis-a-vis implied risk.

Implied volatility often bears no resemblance to the actual realised volatility as time goes by. It is the markets best guess. Likewise, and especially given the dodginess of the data we are presented with, we are making no more than best guesses.

Educated guesses, we hope, but guesses nevertheless, until such time the data fulfills itself with the passage of time.

However the data is full of artefact and possibly even completely apocryphal, because of the interference of both politics and mercantile interests.

Good luck with that.

 

[Belli]

I have a broad understanding but don't know how to apply it to VAERS data ..... Will look into it. Cheers

There is an even easier way to "look into it."

If those researching and assessing Covid-19 issues are not telling you how to your job, how about not trying to tell them how to do theirs? There is "only" about 15,000 of them at the CDC alone.

I'll take notice of an electrician who advises me on how a switchboard is wired but I take zero notice if same said electrician with zero expertise in the health sphere pronounces those heavily involved in the various science disciplians don't know what they are doing. Straight into the junk opinion bin it goes.

 

[barney]

The disclaimers on VAERS have been posted many times.
You refuse to accept causation.
And you refuse to rely on Australian data.
But you happily post from antivaxxer sites without understanding why their data is not worth a cracker.
That's poor form.

Red: I'm not trying to be a contrary boofhead so this reply is not meant in that way

Firstly, everything in my last couple of posts has been from US official data plus a reference to @Belli article from pro-vax David Gorski

So no anti-vax site info that I can recall recently. Plus if I do quote from an A-V site, I generally state so ....... no subterfuge intended

Just on that, would you consider that, over the decades, and now recently with covid, a lot of information that was initially considered misinformation, can often turn out to be truthful/useful/helpful information, once research and time is stirred in? Budesonide springs to mind as a quick example recently.

My point is obvious of course ...... If I quote from an anti-vax reference, that does not automatically prove my assertion incorrect. It just means those who disagree with that particular A-V position dismiss it as false. Proof of anything in the current climate is kind of subjective from what I have read so far.

That leads me to "Causation" The wording of causation from an actual case below, kind of indicates to me that it is legal jargon to protect the potentially guilty. ie. Its a get out of jail card based on unprovable evidence. If someone appears to have died post vaccine, how in the heck do we test any hypothesis to prove such? I mean we can't jump start them back to life and inject them again so they die twice?

Finally on the Disclaimer re VAERS. If the disclaimer on whether or not the data represents causation of an event is written by the same people/company/ (CDC), who then decide whether said event had any causation as such ...... ,and if it does, that causation will then cause said Company to be financially impacted ....

That is about as close to a conflict of interest as we will ever get from where I sit. The CDC and every one else in their collective pockets all gain advantage by humming the same tune ...... Not conducive to truthful research I'd submit?

I do however admit that I have not been able to find enough relative Aus data to compare, but at face value I agree with you on that. That is part of my dilemma, but the Aus data is still a very small subset of the World data of course.

I am definitely not trying to show poor form, to the contrary. If I reference from an A-V site I will say so. People can make their own decisions on whether anything is worth considering. Appropriate censorship and freedom of speech should be the same for all sides of the fence.
Cheers.

 

[rederob]

I am definitely not trying to show poor form, to the contrary.

If you are not posting to Americans then use Australian data.
How hard can it be?
As to "causation," it has been explained in relation to diagnosis leading to an attributed cause if death results. Where there are doubts about cause of death then cases are referred to the coroner. You have a singular unwillingness to accept these processes occur and that we derive data based on such events.
Aside from some reasonable comments on precautionary measures I have yet to see you present a shred of meaningful data.
Baseless opinions are dangerous given we are talking about a disease that has already killed millions, especially seeing that a large share have not been vaccinated.

 

[sptrawler]

I read somewhere this morning that the UK appears to be fairing better than the EU regarding hospitalisations, they are wondering if it is due to the UK using AZ and the EU mainly Pfizer, the outcome will be interesting

 

[rederob]

I read somewhere this morning that the UK appears to be fairing better than the EU regarding hospitalisations, they are wondering if it is due to the UK using AZ and the EU mainly Pfizer, the outcome will be interesting

UK began offering booster shots after 3 months from 2nd dose, and 90% of those aged 50 and over who are eligible have had it.
Meanwhile our medical experts are fluffing around with 6 months, to five to four... but not 3!
So it's going to be pretty easy to measure how well the UK has done compared to other countries, and also hopefully put to bed the critics of vaccine efficacy.

[edit: UK boosters seem to be Moderna/Pfizer and not AZ. A table and link I gave in the vaccine thread showed 2 doses of AZ was ineffective for symptomatic Omicron, but that Pfizer was very good by comparison. The booster shot ramped up efficacy significantly for all vaccine types. Best result was a vaccine given after unvaccinated infection.]

 

[macca]

So far the 5yo have a temperature but are still fine. Possible my 77 yo parents have been exposed. So if there are any out of the ordinary symptoms or severity I'll let the forum know. 5yo are obviously unvaccinated. Both parents double dosed.
It takes a lot to put my father down so I'll let you know.

I'll try the Paracetamol and voost energy tab to see if it perks up wife 1.
I just want the most basic easily accessible medication/supplement I can find.

But Barney's talk about mouthwash/gargle has me wondering if it reduces viral load in the throat so you don't spit it round as much.
Unfortunately the data is a little scetchy:

Could certain mouthwashes reduce transmissibility of COVID-19? - Evidence-Based Dentistry

Data sources Six electronic databases were searched including PubMed/Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, and Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Science (LILACS). Grey literature was also examined. There were no restrictions with regards to language, time of...

www.nature.com

COVID-19 and Mouthwash

Mouthwashes are commonly prescribed by dentists to help fight against microbes that cause plaque in the oral cavity.

www.news-medical.net

Here's what I don't get. Why is it that we have pumped $billions into all things covid, yet I'm still scrounging round for studies on treatment/reduction methods. We just get generic and often wrong bs out of the media.

UK dentists reckon getting their patient to gargle gives the dentist one hour of better safety

Mouthwash could help lower COVID-19 transmissions, research suggests – Dentistry Online

A new report suggests mouthwash has the potential to fight COVID-19 and reduce transmission, prompting calls for further research.

dentistry.co.uk

Povidone iodine - British Dental Journal

www.nature.com

 

[bellenuit]

moXJO. I've been looking at Voost in Woolworths so that I can have some on hand in case I end up with Omicron. I've noticed several varieties, including a multi-vitamin (orange flavour) and an Immunity booster (blackcurrant). Which one did you find helpful?

 

[moXJO]

moXJO. I've been looking at Voost in Woolworths so that I can have some on hand in case I end up with Omicron. I've noticed several varieties, including a multi-vitamin (orange flavour) and an Immunity booster (blackcurrant). Which one did you find helpful?

I used these https://www.woolworths.com.au/shop/productdetails/674967/voost-effervescent-energy-tablets

But any of those "energy" *cough* "caffeine" products will most likely work.

I don't normally recommend supplements but nothing wrong with the rehydrate or multivitamin ones either. I couldn't really eat that much so fluid form would be better.

Take it in the morning with the paracetamol and you can get up and about in about an hour.

The big thing with both the people I'm currently looking after is that they both got up and start doing to much. I tried to force them to eat a bit as you need to conserve as much energy as you can due to lack of nutrition.

Liquid diets going to be easier to hold down.

I'm down 3-4 kg over a 4 day period

 

[barney]

There is an even easier way to "look into it."

If those researching and assessing Covid-19 issues are not telling you how to your job, how about not trying to tell them how to do theirs? There is "only" about 15,000 of them at the CDC alone.

I'll take notice of an electrician who advises me on how a switchboard is wired but I take zero notice if same said electrician with zero expertise in the health sphere pronounces those heavily involved in the various science disciplians don't know what they are doing. Straight into the junk opinion bin it goes.

I'm a muso ...... nice condescending tone in your amplifier

I have consciously tried to remain "narky-less" during recent posts because I think it is counter productive to any discussion

I take your "tone" on board, remove the mid range a few decibels, and put the guitar away with regard to said recent conversations. There is little point if I am annoying people. That is the opposite of my intentions, if I actually had any intentions. Similar admission to "Red"


More importantly, Good luck @moXJO with your current situation, and thanks for the continual updates. Yours and others "diary" of getting through the imposition of Covid could help a lot of other people so well done. I'm sure you will be fine.

 

[Belli]

How to occupy one's spare time. Interesting projections.

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

chrisbillington.net

 

[rederob]

Note all investors: Buy Omicron.
News about it has gone viral and it's chart pattern is spectacular:

Should double by Wednesday based on trend and hit 10M the week after that.

Back to reality.
More good news news from Pretoria where their death rate is down by 80% compared with Delta and covid cases are dropping markedly. Severe illness nowhere near as prevalent, ICU admissions much lower by comparison and hospital stays have been half the duration.

From the UK, booster shots are offering 88% protection from symptomatic infection, and rates of severe illness continue to trend lower for Omicron than Delta. However, hospitalisation numbers (below for England only) are of themselves a worry, especially if workers become infectious and cannot maintain staffing levels for patient care:

On the flipside, mechanical ventilation is less frequently needed:

 

[sptrawler]

World vaccination rates.

 

[moXJO]

The only symptoms I have now is a blocked nose. One where blowing does nothing.

Both people I was looking after are fine off the Paracetamol and energy tab. Both up moving around with little disruption.

But I'd probably buy something to unblock the nose as well. Mouth breathing while you sleep is a pain.