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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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moXJO said:
Interesting stat
Total covid cases overall in:
NSW 18800
VIC 21526

Total Deaths:
NSW 128
VIC 820

Given that nsw has primarily delta, probably safe to assume that delta is not the threat the original covid was.
Click to expand...


In Vic it got into the age care facilities everyone still unvaccinated and its where most of the deaths occurred if I remember correctly, they didn't move all cases to hospital either just let them die in the age care home.

I think the NSW death rate is reflective of vaccination rates in the elderly and possibly better treatment for hospital cases. Expect the current death rate in Vic to be similar to NSW.
 
IFocus said:
In Vic it got into the age care facilities everyone still unvaccinated and its where most of the deaths occurred if I remember correctly, they didn't move all cases to hospital either just let them die in the age care home.

I think the NSW death rate is reflective of vaccination rates in the elderly and possibly better treatment for hospital cases. Expect the current death rate in Vic to be similar to NSW.
Click to expand...
Yes it is terrible, also apparently there are still a lot of Victorian aged care workers who have not had the vaccination, it will be interesting when it becomes mandatory in September.
It is a pretty selfish attitude IMO.
www.abc.net.au

Aged care worker Jude is fully vaccinated — but she estimates a fifth of her colleagues are choosing not to get the jab

Unions and some aged care workers welcome the introduction of mandatory vaccines for all residential staff, but acknowledge it may drive some "very low paid" workers from the industry.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Think this issue will have to be settled in the high court.
There are so many competing interests.
And even among the Unions there is no agreement. In the ABC article above, it quotes the United Workers Union as supporting the mandatory vaccination to work in the industry.
However, when SPC decided on the no Jab no Job policy, the AMWU were very much against it.
If there is something in the BA, or under state or federal laws that mandate vaccinations, as in the aged care workers requiring a flu vax, there is no0t a lot of room to argue against.
Not that it will stop some from arguing.
I guess the ultimate answer is you don['t have to accept the work.
There is also the duty of care that employers have towards not only the employees, but the general public.
Will be an interesting outcome.
Mick
 
IFocus said:
In Vic it got into the age care facilities everyone still unvaccinated and its where most of the deaths occurred if I remember correctly, they didn't move all cases to hospital either just let them die in the age care home.

I think the NSW death rate is reflective of vaccination rates in the elderly and possibly better treatment for hospital cases. Expect the current death rate in Vic to be similar to NSW.
Click to expand...
I recall some media reports at the time accusing Victoria of not learning from NSW mistakes.

Most of the early deaths in NSW were in old folks/nursing homes and it was decided that we stuffed up and in future old sick people should be treated in hospital if possible.

Victoria did not "cop the tip" and repeated what NSW did with same resulting high death rate in the homes.

Frail people with existing ills are always in danger of any new bug, even a different flu bug can knock them over.

In the USA some homes give them all Vitamin D every day which seems to make a notable difference, not much sun in the winter there or in Europe.

Bad scene, low Vitamin D and Any upper URT infection
 
IFocus said:
In Vic it got into the age care facilities everyone still unvaccinated and its where most of the deaths occurred if I remember correctly, they didn't move all cases to hospital either just let them die in the age care home.

I think the NSW death rate is reflective of vaccination rates in the elderly and possibly better treatment for hospital cases. Expect the current death rate in Vic to be similar to NSW.
Click to expand...
Not only that but original covid was more lethal. Delta is more easily spread but not as lethal. My wife is in aged care and not a lot changed.
 
mullokintyre said:
Think this issue will have to be settled in the high court.
There are so many competing interests.
And even among the Unions there is no agreement. In the ABC article above, it quotes the United Workers Union as supporting the mandatory vaccination to work in the industry.
However, when SPC decided on the no Jab no Job policy, the AMWU were very much against it.
If there is something in the BA, or under state or federal laws that mandate vaccinations, as in the aged care workers requiring a flu vax, there is no0t a lot of room to argue against.
Not that it will stop some from arguing.
I guess the ultimate answer is you don['t have to accept the work.
There is also the duty of care that employers have towards not only the employees, but the general public.
Will be an interesting outcome.
Mick
Click to expand...
A lot of the issues like this should be tested in court, for the benefit of all concerned. I don't think employers should have carte blanche to force employees to do something that isn't absolutely necessary, it should be voluntary. But when it is deemed necessary by one party and not the other, the arguments for and against should be presented to an umpire. :2twocents
 
Ahh well, they have opened the streets of London, the Quean's Guards marching in front of the Palace and crowds with no masks happily cheering.

Over 60 dead in the Herald Sun today with none from Covid.

World's ......d., party away.
 
I've said it before, and though at times I have questioned my life choices, it is so awesome to be self employed and it extremely unlikely that I would ever be asked my vaccination status.

Make any fuss and you're sacked... and good luck finding somebody to replace me.

And I can still trade for a living anyway. As you all know I've done it before successfully... and to be honest I'm getting a bit f****** tired of neurotic horse people anyway.

We actually have over a years emergency supply of food and have done so for several years.... And watch out I can make a useable sword from a piece of rebar or a knife from an old chain saw chain or rasp.

... And I've got an idea of making a pair of nunchaku with a couple of equine metacarpals I've got buried in the garden.

We might be f***** @explod, but Mrs and I aren't going out quietly.
 
So the TGA has to come out and say
"Please don't use dangerous, unproven animal medication ( Invermectin) to treat COVID"

Apparently 10's of thousand of sheeple inspired by master sheepherder Craig Kelly are dosing up.

I suppose one could say " Why not ? What could go wrong with such a proactive approach to one's own health ? "

What is happening overseas?​

In the United States, health authorities have been forced to warn people against using doses of the drug meant for animals, noting that some animal worming products were in short supply because people were buying them as COVID-19 treatments.

The problem has become so bad in some states that local health authorities have noted dramatic increases in poisoning.

The Health Department of the US State of Mississippi said 70 per cent of the calls it received about poisoning were related to people taking Ivermectin.

www.abc.net.au

Anti-parasitic drug should not be used to treat COVID-19, TGA warns

The nation's pharmaceutical regulator is warning people against using Ivermectin for COVID-19 after a rise in importation of the anti-parasitic medication.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 


Peter_Doherty_bigger.jpg

Prof. Peter Doherty

@ProfPCDoherty
·
15h

For those who have vague fears about possible, unidentified, long term effects of the COVID vaccines, worry much more about the already identified & maybe unidentified (autoimmunity) effects of catching COVID for both kids and adults. The only protection we have is the vaccine.

=======================

Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70%
vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial
public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic
cases and 1,457 deaths over six months.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns),
this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections
and 13 deaths.

We’ve learned from watching countries that have removed
all restrictions that there is no ‘freedom day’.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
We will need to keep some public health measures in
place – test, trace, isolate and quarantine – to keep the
reproduction number below 1, but as vaccination rates increase,
we’ll be able to ease up further and it is unlikely that
we will need generalised lockdowns.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
Once we reach 70% vaccine coverage, opening up at tens or
hundreds of cases nationally per day is possible, however,
we will need vigilant public health interventions with higher case loads.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
It might seem that these ‘test, trace, isolate and quarantine’
measures aren’t currently working – in New South Wales or Victoria.
But they are. They are stopping transmissions and reducing the
effective reproduction rate from 5 to closer to 1.3 in New South Wales.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
These measures will become more effective with more people
vaccinated as vaccines also contribute to stopping transmission.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
We are moving towards these targets at a rapid pace, but we need to
keep supressing COVID-19 through public health measures while we work
towards 70%-80% vaccination across the country.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
This will ensure we continue to keep the level of hospitalisations
and deaths as low as possible to protect the community and prevent
our healthcare system from becoming overrun.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
The team of modellers from across Australia led by the Doherty
Institute is now working through the implementation issues specific
to the states and territories, specific populations and high risk settings.
Show this thread
Doherty Institute
@TheDohertyInst
·
Aug 23
We are moving towards better control of COVID-19 and a more stable future.
We encourage everyone to stay vigilant, get vaccinated if you are eligible
and take care of each other as we transition to living with COVID-19.

https://doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling
 
Another sobering set of future COVID 19 scenarios from top viralogist Eddie Holmes at Sydney university.
COVID might evolve into a more benign virus AKA common cold.
But the more likely events are continuing evolution to more viralent and contagious varations ie Delta.

And his final observation is critical.

Professor Holmes said vaccinating the population was crucial, but a global approach to vaccination was also urgent.
He said Australia should share resources with countries that don't have vaccine access, such as many African nations.
The latest data shows 33.3 million people, or 2 per cent of people in African countries, had been fully vaccinated.
That is compared with 242 million people, or 40.9 per cent of those who reside in North America.

"That's morally reprehensible and it's also scientifically incorrect," he said.
Click to expand...
"Those places where there's uncontrolled virus spread, the virus will generate more diversity ... that could trigger the evolution of viruses worse than you've got today."

www.abc.net.au

A leading virologist outlines the best, worst and likely scenarios for COVID in the years ahead

Virologist Eddie Holmes was among the first scientists to unravel COVID-19's secrets. Here are three scenarios he predicts may play out in the long term.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Just in case anyone on ASF was wondering, you can catch COVID from somebody's farts.
From Todays OZ
It’s the question you didn’t know you needed answered: can you catch Covid-19 from farts? The ABC’s omniscient Norman Swan told listeners to his Coronacast podcast that yes, you probably can. Hence why the government is testing our waste water for fragments of the virus shed in faeces. Swan warned flatulent Quiet Australians to avoid passing wind “close” to other folk, adding it was important “that you don’t fart with your bottom bare”. Solid advice, pandemic or no.
Click to expand...
More vitally important stuff from our media.
Mick
 
Published by a GP in the SMH today, about the hidden deaths being caused by lockdowns.
I guess these will continue to happen as folk who presented too late to be helped, pass away over the next year

<<A friend of mine is an emergency department specialist. During lockdowns he has seen people die from late presentations. He has seen more people die than he has ever seen before. Patients think it is dangerous to leave their own house, so those with chest pain stay at home and when they finally call an ambulance, a treatable heart attack has become fatal. Patients with strokes are too scared to go hospital and miss out on acute treatment that would have limited the damage to their brain. Patients with bacterial infections that would be simple to treat with prompt intravenous antibiotics wait at home and become septic and die.>>

www.smh.com.au

Lockdowns don’t just save lives, they cost lives too

One of my patients put off making his appointment with a specialist because he feared going near a hospital during lockdown. By the time his cancer was diagnosed, it was too late.
www.smh.com.au www.smh.com.au
 
As I have said on a few occasions, W.A is booming due to the virus, no outbreaks, everyone holidaying in the State, the mining industry out the bush going gang busters, the building industry going gang busters, why would McGowan want to risk an outbreak and the bubble bursting?
I'm sure Scomo would like the spending spread around, but I can't see McGowan handing it over.
Well not until it is absolutely necessary, which will be when the W.A public feel they are missing out, ATM they are happy as hell with Fortress W.A.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/wes...-life-inside-fortress-wa-20210824-p58lje.html
 
Interesting to see Queensland has stuck with the quarantine center being built out bush, rather than at the military base close to Brisbane.
Might be interesting to see who benefits in a couple of years? ;)
 
sptrawler said:
Interesting to see Queensland has stuck with the quarantine center being built out bush, rather than at the military base close to Brisbane.
Might be interesting to see who benefits in a couple of years? ;)
Click to expand...
The feds have not done anything to progress the Pinkenba project, which remains on the table.
In the absence of action from the feds QLD's Premier gave Toowoomba's Wellcamp facility the go ahead as it expects to open in stages from end-2021 - not a couple years as you suggest.
 
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