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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%
  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%
  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%

  • Total voters
    75
They don't. Look at the data on the global scale.


They do work what doesn't work is bad management, politics and fringe misinformation of lock downs instead of science, UK and US great examples.

Australia / NZ examples of well managed lock downs with over all deaths lower than 2019.
 
There is endless misinformation regarding COVID you could start with lock downs don't work.
Wuhan proved the effectiveness of lockdowns and, as you point out, those nations which have done best in combatting covid put in place lockdowns, in conjunction with other mitigation measures.
People who misrepresent science and promote untruths about covid can be likened to Trump's enablers. They are dangers to the wellbeing of our society.
Here's what medical experts propose to get on top of the virus.
 
A comprehensive analysis of covid in Sweden, Vis a vis excess deaths (long read, but good):


 
@wayneL needs to present a balanced perspective to be credible.

Excess deaths is a useful but inexact reference point for the severity of covid-19, as the above shows.
For the first few months of 2020 New Zealand experienced excess death rates up to 20 percentage points higher than Sweden, and that was before covid had any influence.
On the other hand Norway shows an excess death rate up to 10% in August/September despite a grand total of 17 covid deaths in that period:
Numerous studies previously linked in ASF threads have shown Sweden to be a rather poor example of what "successful" represents in terms of thwarting covid. In particular, Denmark and Norway have done much better from both economic and covid mitigation perspectives.
If we compared Sweden with Brazil, the later widely recognised as being ravaged by covid, we learn that Sweden actually has a far higher per capita death rate.
Sweden is the poster child of those who believe little needed to be done, and all would be ok because this is just a bit worse than a seasonal flu. However the only way to paint such a rosy picture is to cherrypick sources.
A more comprehensible picture of covid's effects can be found in the USA where covid deaths are already equal to the total number of their soldiers who died in WWII. These deaths have occurred despite various mitigation strategies being implemented, which leaves us to wonder what would have happened if they did nothing at all. Or we could have looked at the UK which just experienced their highest daily death counts, and should have learnt by now what had to be done to counter such carnage.
 

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I think Sweden stopped being the poster boy for relaxed approach to COVID quite some time ago particularly after the economy tanked and then the King came out and publicly stated Sweden's approach had been a failure.
 
I think Sweden stopped being the poster boy for relaxed approach to COVID quite some time ago particularly after the economy tanked and then the King came out and publicly stated Sweden's approach had been a failure.
Did you read the analysis?
 

The DH will issue quarantine orders to these returnees. The relevant government department will also arrange electronic wristbands for them. According to quarantine orders, they shall neither leave their hotel rooms nor move around in the hotel during the entire quarantine period. Leaving designated rooms will be regarded as a breach of the quarantine order and constitutes a criminal offence. Offenders are subject to a maximum imprisonment for six months and fine of $25,000.
 
Did you read the analysis?


I did it was twisted logic combined with presenting the data to back the argument.

It simply didn't stand up.

Personally I was hoping Sweden could be an outlier but COVID wasn't having any of it COVID just doesn't care about ideology.
 
I did it was twisted logic combined with presenting the data to back the argument.

It simply didn't stand up.

Personally I was hoping Sweden could be an outlier but COVID wasn't having any of it COVID just doesn't care about ideology.
LOL, okay.

Looking forward to your analysis of why that is so.
 
LOL, okay.

Looking forward to your analysis of why that is so.


This was at the opening



"2020 – “The Year of Doomsday Modeling”

Scientists and researchers from lots of different disciplines produced lots of theories and mathematical models intended to explain and predict Covid and its impact.

Models that in most cases eventually proved to vastly inflate and overestimate the risks & resulting deaths. It appears that most of these scientists fell in love with their own models & theories, and thus failed to take real world data and reality into account.

Recall all the doomsday models predicting massive deaths already during the “First Wave”…?"


Its a shocker, in Australia the early success of the approach to combat COVID was due to modelling which was surprisingly extremely accurate.

I remember at the start of COVID vividly the debate between infectious disease experts (Australian) on the best way to deal with COVID when little was known.

One of the experts talked abut modelling (whose numbers were spot on) verses another who had worked front line SARS, Ebola etc who talked a bout contact tracing, surveillance, separation etc again spot on.
 
22 January 2021
In a press conference with Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that early evidence suggests that the UK variant of COVID-19 “may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.” Johnson also clarified that the vaccines being used in the UK “remain effective both against the old variant and this new variant.”
 
NSW got it right again. People really dug into berjiggles saying it was going to run out of control. But her and her team have done a fantastic job while allowing as much freedom as possible.
 
The rapid spread of the new more infectious strain of COVID is raising infection and death rates across many countries.
Unfortunately it has also entered Australia via the Tennis Open tournament. The Guardian COVID blog covers this situation

We don't want this to escape..

 
For all the posters on here, who reckon China have nailed the containment of the covid 19 outbreak, I wonder if there would be a similar round of hip, hip hooray for ScoMo if he introduced China's testing. ?

From the article:
Groups deemed necessary for "close monitoring", including international arrivals, are being subjected to four tests — a nasal swab, a throat swab, a blood test and an anal swab.

"Applying extra anal swabs can improve the detection rate of infection and reduce missed diagnosis," Li Tongzeng, associate director of respiratory and infectious diseases at Beijing's You'an Hospital, told state broadcaster Central Chinese Television (CCTV).

Douyacai, a student returning from South Korea, had her anal swab in Beijing on her 14th day of quarantine.

She wrote that the test was carried out by medical personnel with two swabs.

"Just endless shame. No other feelings. Good luck," Douyacai wrote.
Winny, a student based in Australia, said she received an anal swab while in quarantine in the city of Guangzhou
 
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I hope they use separate swabs.
It is also going to look pretty ugly at drive through clinics with Butts poking out of all the car windows.
 
Now Perths got covid.

Will enjoy watching McGowan on this one. He is going to cop it for all the crap he gave the east.

They need to put the army in charge of quarantine. Not part time uber drivers. Need 100% success not 99.9%

#stoptheflights.
 
Attacks on McGowan from the East will just improve his polling for the coming election I would think.

It will be interesting to see how it got out after 10 months . Maybe people got lax.

Went down to do some panic buying at the local supermarket but out done by the hordes already there panic buying so went home.

Are you stocked up SP?
 
We on the east have plenty of toilet paper, happy to send some over to west friends. Lol
 
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