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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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wayneL said:
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The last part is sort of real but fake news.

In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide. 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children. There were cases in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable.

That is the difference, we can cure one, the other we cannot (yet), hence fear is the driving emotion.

Hence the narrative within the political sphere is once we have a cure/vaccine. All is good! Don't worry about the facts, just the narrative, you can be cured.

Oh, we really haven't developed as a species in the last 2000 years. We/those in power use the narrative of fear, either going to hell or dying from a disease, it works every time and the majority believe. We still havn't learnt as a collective, how to disseminate information/often just data, to drive decisions that affect the majority of our community.

FEAR wins everytime.
 
satanoperca said:
The last part is sort of real but fake news.

In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide. 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children. There were cases in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable.

That is the difference, we can cure one, the other we cannot (yet), hence fear is the driving emotion.

Hence the narrative within the political sphere is once we have a cure/vaccine. All is good! Don't worry about the facts, just the narrative, you can be cured.

Oh, we really haven't developed as a species in the last 2000 years. We/those in power use the narrative of fear, either going to hell or dying from a disease, it works every time and the majority believe. We still havn't learnt as a collective, how to disseminate information/often just data, to drive decisions that affect the majority of our community.

FEAR wins everytime.
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Agree the TB Vs CV comparison doesn't quite fit, but I think the greater point is as you highlight. Which is why I poste it.

But in the vast majority of cases there is a cure for CV, a functioning immune system.

And just to be crystal clear once again, my view is that as a society we should take steps to protect those so compromised, but without committing societal and economic suicide in so doing.
 

Dozens of Israeli Physicians, Scientists Warn Government Against Coronavirus Lockdown​

Dozens of Israeli physicians and scientists have signed an open letter calling on the cabinet not to impose a new countrywide lockdown, despite a rise in the number of confirmed coronavirus cases.

The signatories recommend focusing on steps to protect the groups that are most vulnerable to infection – above all older adults – and to avoid broader, more collective measures. They called for adopting, with certain adjustments, the Swedish model for handling the pandemic.

The petition follows the government's decision on Thursday to impose a lockdown on "red" cities and towns, with high infection rates. Some ministers and senior officials have warned that a countrywide lockdown over the High Holy Days may be inevitable should infection rates keep rising.

It was signed by some of the most prominent voices that have criticized the approach of the Israeli government and many other countries in dealing with the virus, both on social media and traditional media platforms. They include Dr. Udi Qimron, a professor of microbiology at Tel Aviv University; Amnon Shashua, the founder of autonomous-driving technology developer Mobileye and a professor of computer science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Michael Levitt, a professor of structural biology at Stanford University who was awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry; Prof. Eitan Friedman, a professor of internal medicine specializing in cancer; and Dr. Ifat Abadi-Korek, the head of the pharmacoeconomics department at the Israeli Center for Technology Assessment in Health Care.

Missing from the list, at least for now, is the most prominent and outspoken coronavirus contrarian voice in Israel, Prof. Yoram Lass, a former director general of the Health Ministry.

The letter reflects an increasingly strident disagreement in the medical-scientific community in Israel and abroad. In the outbreak's first months, and particularly after tens of thousands of deaths were recorded in China, Italy, Spain and other countries, many governments enacted similar policies involving the strict enforcement of social distancing measures. The most serious of such measures was a full lockdown that in many countries remained in place for weeks and even months.

In Israel, the measures paralyzed the economy and caused massive damage, but the restrictions were lifted after slightly over a month – earlier than in other countries.

Israel’s response to the virus was somewhere between that of Sweden on the one hand and New Zealand on the other. Sweden, led by its chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, did not impose a lockdown, instead calling on citizens to observe limited social distancing. While in the pandemic’s first months, it appeared that Sweden was hit much harder by the virus than other Scandinavian states, in the past two months the infection rate has dropped steeply, without signs of a second wave.

New Zealand, in contrast, declared all-out war on the virus early on, nearly eliminating it from the Pacific island nation. The country boasted about its low illness and fatality numbers, including weeks without any new cases. The infection rate has picked up recently, however, leading to strict measures to stop the virus’ spread that are wreaking economic havoc. Detractors say that after this lockdown, New Zealand will be more vulnerable than other countries to a new wave of infection, precisely because the virus has not spread throughout the country. They add that in the absence of a vaccine, victory cannot be declared over the virus.

The petition comes amid reports that the rise in COVID-19 infections in Israel will lead to a new lockdown during the Rosh Hashanah holiday weekend, which starts on the evening of September 18.

“A lockdown does not stop the pandemic, it merely slows its spread slightly and temporarily,” the letter’s signatories write. “When the restrictions are lifted, the virus continues its spread, and this after the country’s citizens have been weakened emotionally, economically and above all in terms of their health. A lockdown does not prevent deaths. On the contrary, it extends the period of time during which populations at risk are exposed to the virus ... thus paradoxically causing excess mortality.”

The physicians and scientists call on the government to adopt the Swedish model, with modifications to better protect older Israelis, as many of the people who died in Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic were in nursing or retirement homes, and the government has apologized for failing to protect this population. They call for keeping schools open while reinforcing the public health system, in order to handle the expected rise in illness this winter.

​
 
sptrawler said:
Will this be portayed as good or bad, I guess we have to wait until the media decide, at the moment it is a very balanced report.
Which actually shows that can be done, I for one thought that was a thing of the past, wonders never cease.:roflmao:
Now all we have to do is watch how it all morphs out.:xyxthumbs
https://www.smh.com.au/national/vic...-melbourne-at-the-shrine-20200905-p55so3.html
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I thought it was extremely bad taste for a collection of albeit some concerned citizens but also many lunatics and fascists to gather at the Shrine for this demonstration.

gg
 
sptrawler said:
Will this be portayed as good or bad, I guess we have to wait until the media decide, at the moment it is a very balanced report.
Which actually shows that can be done, I for one thought that was a thing of the past, wonders never cease.:roflmao:
Now all we have to do is watch how it all morphs out.:xyxthumbs
https://www.smh.com.au/national/vic...-melbourne-at-the-shrine-20200905-p55so3.html
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My experience with people like this...
Matthew Lawson, a prominent anti-lockdown promotor in Melbourne, said he attended the Saturday protest despite reinforcing the "cancelled" message 24 hours earlier.
"The revolution has now started, it won't stop," he said in a live video on Saturday. "Once this groundswell starts, it won't stop".
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...is that they tend to nurture some secret ambition to become Minister of Information in the new order. Little do they know the Cheka has got their number.
 
Herded like um.
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No Severe Side Effects for 2,000 São Paulo Volunteers
Testing Oxford Vaccine

​
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – All 2,000 volunteers selected in São Paulo to be administered the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Oxford University have already been given the first dose of the drug in phase III of trials.

In the city, the research is coordinated by the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP). The global development of the drug is also under the responsibility of AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Company.

The administration of the initial doses was completed during the month of August and the second dose has started to be distributed, in an expedited process. “It is well underway, we have already performed blood tests.”

All participants of the São Paulo stage of the study are well and did not present serious adverse symptoms after vaccination. All participants of the São Paulo stage of the study are well and did not present serious adverse symptoms after vaccination. (Photo: internet reproduction) “The results of these tests will be computed in a system accessed by Oxford specialists, who are responsible for developing the statistics required for the study,” says Soraya Smaili, Dean of UNIFESP.

“We now have to wait a little longer for all the tests to be done. The goal is to determine if the antibodies will last.” The expert pointed out that the second round of vaccines works as a type of “booster” for the first dose, the most important one.

All participants of the São Paulo stage of the study are well and did not present serious adverse symptoms after vaccination.

One of the reasons for choosing Brazil to run the vaccine trials were the disease’s epidemiological rates, which were high at the time the international cooperation was announced.

The current scenario, fortunately, no longer points to a sharp growth in infections in Brazil. On Friday, September 4th, the country reached a rolling seven-day average of 41,000 new cases and 857 deaths.

This is based on the notifications of the past seven days divided by seven, which offsets the traditional underreporting on weekends when the Health Secretariats work in shifts.

Rio de Janeiro and Bahia

In Rio de Janeiro, approximately 87 percent of the 1,500 volunteers have already received the first dose and 27 percent have been given the second dose. This study is coordinated by the D’or Research and Teaching Institute.

The forecast for the closing of all doses is still in October of this year. The same institute is in charge of testing 2,500 volunteers in Salvador, Bahia – the location saw a considerable increase in volunteer recruitment after a decision by the British university.

In the region, 42 percent of volunteers have already been administered the initial dose and another 16 percent have been given the second shot. The testing process is expected to be completed in November. Should they present any typical symptom of Covid-19, the volunteers will undergo an RT-PCR type test.

Once the vaccine’s efficacy is confirmed, it will also be produced in Brazil, with the involvement of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) laboratories in Rio de Janeiro.​


 
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