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Copper - Back above $3lb!

Copper inventories continuing to run down, with drawdowns across all continents.
Given that Comex and LME are both in decline, and have been for some weeks despite copper climbing over $8,000/tonne, the likelihood of further price upside remains good.
Oddly enough, copper's rapid trip north is closely paralleled by events a full year ago: So will we see May collapse the market again, and kill off the bull?
 
Oddly enough, copper's rapid trip north is closely paralleled by events a full year ago: So will we see May collapse the market again, and kill off the bull?

Needs to run alot harder for this to happen IMO, not high enough yet, say $4.50lb then where talking get your shorts on shorty!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Copper higher on Fri's close

Due to a weaker US dollar copper traded higher for Friday's LME close
Stockpile stands at 159125 M/Tonnes and a change of [-2050]
 

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Strikes all over Peru = Supply Disruptions

Continued drawdown of LME Stock Levels about 2kt a day = 157kt and falling

All = Cu at $3.70lb, should hit $4 soon given current situation
 
Copper continues to decline on the LME yet continues to rise in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, wierd

Either someones just moving copper from LME warehouses to China or something else is up,

Either way mkt is now taking notice of the rise in Chinese Warehouse inventories but is not overlooking the fact that every day an avg of 2kt's of Copper leaves LME warehouses

Redrob, Brend, Wayne and others a penny for your thoughts gentleman?
 
YT,

Well I'm a technician, so views from that angle... purposely vague views as there are obviously different schools of T/A.

I haven't run an oscillator over the chart, but I just know there will be a bearish divergence. This could mean:

1/ Nothing, it will continue up
2/ Distribution or re-accumulation
3/ It's gonna correct

In other words it will either go up, down, or sideways (really all divergence means is a tapering off of momentum)

I'm out of my futures position (too bloody early) but am still long some miners (FCX, PCU mainly) so hope it continues up. My best guess is option 2/ for a bit, and then see.
 
Wayne
Copper has increased 50% in 3 months to date - topped out last week.
Due for a bit of a correction before any significant recovery.
Shanghai inventories are interesting - probably more arbitrage opportunities being taken with deliveries from LME and orders sidetracked to Shanghai for now: Not sure!
What is for certain is the distribution of drawdowns globally - healthy in Europe, US and Asia,
Comex is also trending slowly down - interesting given the general weakness of US manufacturing and housing.
Lord forbid; what will happen if the US kicks into gear again!
 
I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper.

China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.
 

zinc is best basemetal to invest in now, what do u think?

thx

MS
 
zinc is best basemetal to invest in now, what do u think?

thx

MS

I had recommended customers to buy zinc futures when it was at $3600/mt level, at $4000 plus level, we had already asked them to take some profit.

If copper price really falls as per my prediction, then it will pull zinc price down as well.

Now we are recommending them to sell Zinc call options $4600 Jun07.
 

ok thats for "zinc price" in the ST

what about zinc lme warehouse stocks? do yout think they will halve by year end or before?

thx

MS
 
ok thats for "zinc price" in the ST

what about zinc lme warehouse stocks? do yout think they will halve by year end or before?

thx

MS

China may be cancelling tax rebate for export of zinc, so zinc inventory is expected to go down, but how low I don't know.

I'll look to buy zinc at much lower level, but I'll not short zinc.
 
China may be cancelling tax rebate for export of zinc, so zinc inventory is expected to go down, but how low I don't know.

I'll look to buy zinc at much lower level, but I'll not short zinc.

ok thx, imo i have a feeling Zinc might do a Nickel or Lead, double in price from a low/correction. Copper may be similar but i suspect it wont mirror these 3. Below is quoted from another site


thx

MS
 

Copper is falling, pulling zinc price down now.
I'll be interested to buy zinc at $3600 level, but not now.
 
Isn't interesting how the news is always anything but new.

This was only yesterday:


You think this came out on the top of the recent rally?
 

Copper price has fallen as per my prediction, copper price has fallen $173/mt since then . Double-top formed, looks like copper will continue to fall for the next few days.

See attached for the copper chart:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/review-on-copper-trade_16.html

Had advised clients to buy zinc when it goes to $3600mt, which is still $165 away.
 
Copper futures tumbled in Shanghai to a six-week low on concern that China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may be oversupplied following a surge in imports this year and rising domestic output.

China's copper imports reached a record 307,740 metric tons in March, and almost matched that level in April, according to customs data issued May 15. Production of the metal, used in wires and pipes, rose 17 percent in April to a record 274,000 tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. The big increase in production will definitely put more pressure on the market.
 
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