Copper - Back above $3lb!

[wayneL]

Whacking a few lines on the continuous....

....at a point of interest currently.

 

[BREND]

Copper price should have a big fall in the next few weeks.

 

[rederob]

Agreed on the US. But you are not worried about the rise in Shanghai inventory?

Inventory rise is due to the arbitrage: It's presently cheaper to import than to buy locally.
I expect this trend will continue for a while to come.
On the price, it's clear that the froth needs to be blown off the top.
Fundamentally, good drawdowns of LME copper look set to continue, even in the US. So I expect any significant copper price weakness will be strongly bought into, capping downside in the near term.

 

[BREND]

I heard that 10s of thousand tons of copper are waiting at China port, waiting to come onto main land. If their licenses are approved, then supply of copper in China will increase a lot.

 

[rederob]

I heard that 10s of thousand tons of copper are waiting at China port, waiting to come onto main land. If their licenses are approved, then supply of copper in China will increase a lot.

Brend
That may be true (I have no knowledge either way), but if the present consumption rate in China is maintained, then what's in the ships will just cause one of many blips on the price charts: I suspect there will need to be substantiall and regular tonnages over and above demand to curb copper's present upward trajectory.
I guess my other question would have been to ask if it is refined metal or concentrates on the ships: Concentrates are in strong demand.

 

[BREND]

Brend
That may be true (I have no knowledge either way), but if the present consumption rate in China is maintained, then what's in the ships will just cause one of many blips on the price charts: I suspect there will need to be substantiall and regular tonnages over and above demand to curb copper's present upward trajectory.
I guess my other question would have been to ask if it is refined metal or concentrates on the ships: Concentrates are in strong demand.

I guess its refined copper. So are u predicting that copper will rise to $8000?
Currently I do not have a strong view on copper. I do think that zinc price will continue to fall.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Wayne, could you please repost that copper chart of yours as at today,

With copper getting to $3.15lb I think it may have broken out above the descending resistance line


Thnaks

 

[wayneL]

Wayne, could you please repost that copper chart of yours as at today,

With copper getting to $3.15lb I think it may have broken out above the descending resistance line


Thnaks

Yep it's definitely have a peek to see whether it likes it up there and as you can see its up a couple more since the close. Some technicians might draw in resistance somewhere in the area of the orange box, but I think it's a bit tenuous as to if/where, hence I haven't drawn any lines myself.

For your amusement \/

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Thanks Wayne,

Personally I was surprised that we had a 3000t flow in of Copper yet the Spot price gained!

Looks like mkt thinks any additions will be short term blip,

I still expect $3.50 in the next 2 months, after that

 

[vishalt]

$3.22!!! The copper bull is back and surging!

 

[wayneL]

I have virtually guaranteed that copper will race away to the upside in a parabolic trend by selling my futures on friday LOL

Get long!!!!

(still have a few stock options in the sector though... just in case )

$3.22!!! The copper bull is back and surging!

Told you! LOL

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I knew it was ready for a run, sheesh may smash $3.50 in a heart beat,

 

[BREND]

I'll be happy to see copper price continues to trend up, because I'm an investor of Rio Tinto. And I'm currently doing some testing on system trading, and currently the system shows that copper should still be going up.

 

[wayneL]

Thanks Wayne,

Personally I was surprised that we had a 3000t flow in of Copper yet the Spot price gained!

Looks like mkt thinks any additions will be short term blip,

I still expect $3.50 in the next 2 months, after that

Ding!!!

Went over the top on monday night 7 weeks ahead of schedule.

Shooting star today FWIW.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Go copper!

Thanks for that Nick, it was very interesting to watch

 

[rederob]

Media articles suggest China is moving copper prices north.
In fact highest copper metal cancellation rates are in the US, followed by Europe, and these locations are accommodating the LME stock declines.
Any pickup in Asian cancellation rates will propel copper prices sharply higher, and any price retraces in the near term would become short and shallow.
What Chinese data now shows is a resumption of strong copper imports, which in turn deplete available stocks elsewhere. The cumulative effect of this will become more pronounced via warehouse cancellations at Shanghai, on Comex, and the LME.
If we don't see this flow-through in coming months then a steady price decline to around the $3 level is most likely.

 

[BREND]

The problem with your comment BREND is that you already know this. If you, being a broker, already know this, then the rest of the market probably also knows it and will have priced it in accordingly. Its just not that simple.

FWIW here are MY THOUGHTS



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I agree with you.
It seems that metal futures trading, the winners are mostly the technical traders.

 

[CanOz]

What i'm about to share with you, i do so only as a warning to others trading CFD's.

Today i wanted to go short on Copper (may07). I've been trading gold and oil recently on support and resistance, with some minor success. The contracts were all minis. I looked at the chart, and thought this looks like a nice safe spot to enter and it looked like it was slowly breaking down. I put in my order for 5 (yes 5 contracts), thinking it was a mini .

Immediately i realised my mistake, too late, the spread took 1500.00 right away. I thought, oh my god.....then i thought...wait, trade it like i planned...be cool, calm. It proceeded to push UP through the channel line over the next two hours and when i finally pulled the pin i lost 6900.00.

So far in my trading over the last couple of years i've never taken a loss like this, they've been much smaller, on shares, using tight stops.

This was a stupid, stupid mistake which i hope non of the other "inexperienced" members here make.

I had no real plan
I did not check out the contract size properly
I took no consideration of risk at all

I was gambling, plain and simple.

CFD's are dangerous....be aware.

Cheers,

 

[Wysiwyg]

What i'm about to share with you, i do so only as a warning to others trading CFD's.

Today i wanted to go short on Copper (may07). I've been trading gold and oil recently on support and resistance, with some minor success. The contracts were all minis. I looked at the chart, and thought this looks like a nice safe spot to enter and it looked like it was slowly breaking down. I put in my order for 5 (yes 5 contracts), thinking it was a mini .

Immediately i realised my mistake, too late, the spread took 1500.00 right away. I thought, oh my god.....then i thought...wait, trade it like i planned...be cool, calm. It proceeded to push UP through the channel line over the next two hours and when i finally pulled the pin i lost 6900.00.

So far in my trading over the last couple of years i've never taken a loss like this, they've been much smaller, on shares, using tight stops.

This was a stupid, stupid mistake which i hope non of the other "inexperienced" members here make.

I had no real plan
I did not check out the contract size properly
I took no consideration of risk at all

I was gambling, plain and simple.

CFD's are dangerous....be aware.

Cheers,

Hi CanOz...Can you tell me what was the time restriction on your shorts as to enforce a sell at a loss? Thanx.

 

[CanOz]

You mean the expiry? It was the May 07 contract, third Friday prior to the contract month. Copper is still going, what a nice breakout....would have taken out my original stop as well.