My market is London Metal Exchange, not Nymex. Did you get it correct?
Copper - Back above $3lb!
- Thread starter YOUNG_TRADER
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My market is London Metal Exchange, not Nymex. Did you get it correct?
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Yes, but there must be correlation otherwise the arbitragers would be all over it like a rash and close the difference in a heartbeat.
Got a chart of the LME trades on the 23rd?
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Wayne
Apologies for the belated reply.
I thought your original question was a trick question as there is little difference between an imperial ton (2240lbs) and a metric tonne (2204lbs) - while there is a huge difference between those and a short ton (the 2000lbs "ton" that is the US standard).
Any arbitrage opportunity is clearly based on the common denominator of "one pound", which does not vary across continents and is the basis of "pricing" the metal.
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I see the same thing, re the continued copper draw downs, LME will be below 100kt's in 15 days at this rate!
Then it should be game on!
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Note that only copper inventories fell at LME warehouses overnight, with cancellation rates remaining quite robust.
Note also that copper inventories are falling at COMEX warehouses, albeit relatively steadily.
Into the next half the copper story will unfold based on concentrate availability, which already is looking a bit dodgy. My suspicion is that copper prices will not decline to any significant degree unless concentrate availability improves markedly: Presently there are no suggestions this will occur within this year.
Without concentrates, Chinese smelters will quickly run down refined inventories and, as YT puts it, it's "game on".
>Apocalypto<
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I think Brend needs to reply to Wayne's Q and post a chart clearing up the issue about that price & date
Sure, is it so important? I thought my prediction on the direction has already proven to be right?
I have asked my client to place a limit order, the price did not reach there. But market order was done at lower level, price comes down, my clients buy back to take profit, still make money. My clients bought back at $7170 yesterday, you can check if this price is traded yesterday.
I've asked my clients to short zinc at $3700 today. If zinc does not reach this level, but still come down from $3670, I'll still ask my clients to execute a market, and short zinc.
>Apocalypto<
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Sure, is it so important? I thought my prediction on the direction has already proven to be right?
I have asked my client to place a limit order, the price did not reach there. But market order was done at lower level, price comes down, my clients buy back to take profit, still make money. My clients bought back at $7170 yesterday, you can check if this price is traded yesterday.
I've asked my clients to short zinc at $3700 today. If zinc does not reach this level, but still come down from $3670, I'll still ask my clients to execute a market, and short zinc.
That's great,
surely you have a chart to post with that date, so why not post it
wayneL
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Ahh!
Thats where I was getting confused. Didn't realize there was a short ton and long ton.
All clear now.
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Another bullish note for copper is the COT report, obviously not an indicator on its own but....
The commercials are increasing thier net long positions, from a decrease in net longs recently....and opposite to this is the funds, and they are increasing thier net shorts....usually a bullish sign.
Rederob or YT do you use this?
http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p57.gif
Will be an updated graph tomorrow morning i think.
Cheers,
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\
can'uck
I only use the COT to confirm the nature of a trend.
The tide on copper turned a while back, and this was later confirmed by the COT data.
If you have a close look at the data that underpins daily COT reports I don't think you would be relying on anything there as a basis for investing, or even short term trading.
A more reliable basis for trading would be the changes to short and long dated contracts.
However, I find it easier to monitor global warehouse data for an idea of what's happening.
For example, we know from LME and Comex data that US copper inventories are declining, and that cancellation rates are robust.
Whereas we also know that LME's Asian warehouses are in relative balance, while Shanghai is in solid restocking.
The implication is that China is restocking refined metal, possibly in anticipation of a concentrate deficit.
European warehouses have restocked a little, but are not showing signs of an increasing trend.
Leaving us overall with a copper market that is on edge, tipping neither one way or another. But giving each way bettors a chance on being in the money.
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I see Commarade!
I suppose ASF is the new Animal Farm?
:Why?
Wow, you are a young trader...
Not as young as I once was, sighhhhhhh
6mth copper stocks. Lets see what happens in the next few weeks...it has to at least stay strong or increase, surely... any thoughts???????????????????????????????????????????????
Should be down.
>Apocalypto<
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your bullish or bearish? you were 180 degrees up a post or two ago.
Brend you have charts to back up your thoughts? you claimed to use T/A, I post a chart when i make my view on direction.
would love to see your decisions on your charts.
