Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Copper - Back above $3lb!

Jump to new
BREND said:
I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper.

China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.
Click to expand...

Wayne, then maybe u should consider open trading account with me. I had recommended all my clients to short copper on 15 May 07 when copper is still at $7650/mt and also to take profit on zinc then (when zinc price is still above $4000/mt).

See copper chart:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/review-on-copper-trade_17.html
 
wayneL said:
Chalk one up for the divergence signal... wish I had the gonads to have shorted the futures. :rolleyes: I would be shouting a festive meal with friends right now. ;)
Click to expand...


LOL! Maybe we should start a new thread "Copper to bring down world markets"!

Seriously i wonder what the roll on effects of this will be.

Cheers,
 
wayneL said:
Chalk one up for the divergence signal... wish I had the gonads to have shorted the futures. :rolleyes: I would be shouting a festive meal with friends right now. ;)
Click to expand...

I sense the force is strong in you, but you are not yet ready to be a Jedi my padowin (See Waynes Avtar) :p:
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
I sense the force is strong in you, but you are not yet ready to be a Jedi my padowin (See Waynes Avtar) :p:
Click to expand...

Haha, its ok, I'm a nobody. Still a student of the market, never stop learning, never stop discover new strategy, to fight the market.
 
Just some info re China they are trying to cut out the middleman.
China boosts Zambia mining investments to $900 mln


LUSAKA (Reuters) - China has boosted its planned investment to $900 million in Zambia's mineral-rich Copper Belt over the next four years, the government said on Wednesday.

The Ministry of Commerce and Trade said China Nonferrous Metals Corporation (CNMC) president Luo Tao told Zambian authorities that Chinese firms would now add an extra $100 million to the initial $800 million investments planned for the new Chambishi economic zone.

The zone, pioneered by CNMC, is designed to draw investment from scores of Chinese companies in copper and cobalt mining, agriculture and manufacturing to create 60,000 jobs.

Deputy Commerce and Trade Minister Dora Siliya was in China to finalise investment arrangements with firms planning to set up in Zambia starting from this year, the statement said.

A senior Treasury official told Reuters that Chinese firms had shown interest in setting up manufacturing plants, including processing copper into finished products such as cables.

President Levy Mwanawasa said in February after talks with Chinese leader Hu Jintao that his government would create the economic zone in the Copper Belt town of Chambishi, 420 km north of the capital Lusaka, and exempt Chinese firms from import and value added taxes.

Analysts say the move fitted in China's strategy to tap raw materials from African nations in exchange for grants and unconditional loans to the world's poorest continent.
 
Copper inventories at LME are continuing to decline, and cancellation rates are increasing.
No sign yet that a change is about to take place.
If it's China restocking, then the turnaround will be swift.
If it's not, then copper will claim $10k this year - in the last quarter - if stock levels reach former lows.
 
Copper market forecast to remain in deficit for at least another year (maybe three) by large instos over last week (GSJBW, MBL etc) who have upgraded forward year forecasts by 20%+

Stronger for Longer

They are still hedging bets with long-term quotes under $1.50 though - in my view these forecast falls are BS. Just more wriggle room for future upgrades.

Apart from booming demand - supply is tight, tight, tight. Chinese have been restocking a bit, but also buying for real demand; they destocked by twice the current LME stockpile last year, FFS

The US housing market has proven a blip and important for alarmists and insular US traders only.

The number of decent copper projects due for production in the next five years could be counted on a hand...

In the short term we are guessing - but stay long the red metal !!!
 
BREND said:
I'm right again, today copper is trading at $7171, my clients are making tons of money from my recommendations.:)
Click to expand...

So by my calcs the LME contract is METRIC tonnes (approx. 2,200 lbs), yes?
 
BREND said:
I'm right again, today copper is trading at $7171, my clients are making tons of money from my recommendations.:)
Click to expand...
Hang on a minute,

According to my NYMEX data, that price was not traded at on the 23rd (the day you posted that)... only a few trades yesterday traded at that (the equivalent of) price, or the the 22nd.

Care to elaborate?
 
BREND said:
I'm not sure what you are asking.
Copper inventory is now 130,250mt, 1 lot of copper futures has 25mt of copper.
Click to expand...

NYMEX contract is priced in USD per pound
LME contract is priced in USD per tonne

My question was whether is was imperial tons (2000lbs) or metric tonnes (~2,200 lbs)

I've now figured it out for myself.

Cheers
 

Similar threads

System
IL1 - Ilala Metals
Replies
2
Views
1K
System
System
System
CSC - Capstone Copper Corp.
Replies
3
Views
2K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
BossMan.
The American Consumer
Replies
2
Views
631
divs4ever
divs4ever
R
Can trading platforms change the value of candles that have already closed?
Replies
8
Views
548
peter2
peter2
S
What could be safer than writing a covered call?
Replies
15
Views
2K
Santafe
S
Top