Commodities tipped to collapse

[YChromozome]

Howard said so, so it must be correct . . . . LOL

Howard backs Costello on mining downturn - 1st November - The Australian.

The resources sector should continue to make a very big contribution to Australia's wealth but the reality was that there had been a dip in the sector, Mr Howard said today.

 

[krisbarry]

They are calling it tops so interest rates can then take a breather and that way they can secure another election win...either that or its a side stepping issue to avoid other pressing issues such as infrastructure problems on our ports, roads and railways etc.

...or maybe its because of the skills shortage crisis...who knows

 

[BSD]

Look at Sydney, where there has been a property bust pretty much since the games were over.

Barcelona, Seol, and Athens all experienced it, and Beijing proabaly will as well.

Boom to 2008, then a mini-correction

I dont buy it. Coincidences perhaps?

The US economy didn't miss a beat post Atlanta and like Atlanta and the US, Beijing is a small component of overall Chinese economy.

Beijing is what % of Chinese GDP/Population?

I dont even think that Beijing is the driver of the 'China Story" it is the political city - not the manufacturing power house.


That said, I think plenty of small corrections (10% - 20%) will occur in the two years to 2008, as they have this year.

 

[wayneL]

More a reference to this continual assertion that there is a 'normal' value for commodities.

The mentality prevails (worse in the US) that commodity prices cannot have a bull market for more than 5 minutes but homes can easily double every couple of years and the rental property is always 'cheap' despite a 2% yield.

Well..... yes!

The epitome of "irrational exuberance" there and bull markets running well past where they *should.

Now that Johnny Rotten has joined the fray, I'm buying with my ears pinned back. LOL

 

[Smurf1976]

Why can a property boom last for 15 years and nobody thinks properties are returning to 1992 prices?

The normal change of sentiment during a bull market.

At the beginning, hardly anybody expects prices to rise. You would have encountered that if this thread had been running a few years ago. Few would have believed that oil would go over $20 or zinc over $1000 simply because they had been so low for so long.

At the end of a bull market, it's the reverse. Hardly anybody expects prices to fall. Just look at how many were piling into the NASDAQ in early 2000 right at the end. Or how many still don't believe house prices can fall when, relative to practically any measure (especially those other than cash), they have fallen quite a lot at least in Sydney.

If people think you're doing the "right" thing with your investments then it's likely you're too late.

 

[wayneL]

Howard said so, so it must be correct . . . . LOL

Howard backs Costello on mining downturn - 1st November - The Australian.

The resources sector should continue to make a very big contribution to Australia's wealth but the reality was that there had been a dip in the sector, Mr Howard said today.

Hmmm

Maybe Johnny Rotten and Kid Costello were right. Copper has been swatted, breaking some support levels, and I believe the other base metals as well.

The chart is now looking more like a distribution top than a consolidation in the trend IMO.

Reports of slowing growth coming out of China as well

 

[Sean K]

Hmmm

Maybe Johnny Rotten and Kid Costello were right. Copper has been swatted, breaking some support levels, and I believe the other base metals as well.

The chart is now looking more like a distribution top than a consolidation in the trend IMO.

Reports of slowing growth coming out of China as well

Not sure about the 'slowing growth', all I see is confirmation of around 10-11%.

Thart chart looks bearish to me as well. What is it of?

 

[professor_frink]

Not sure about the 'slowing growth', all I see is confirmation of around 10-11%.

Thart chart looks bearish to me as well. What is it of?

that's copper my good man

 

[Sean K]

that's copper my good man

HG Z6 is copper? Falling through $320 looks ordinary.

 

[professor_frink]

HG Z6 is copper? Falling through $320 looks ordinary.

Yeah it does look a little ordinary, doesn't it?
considering the falls in metals o/n, and not much of a move in the U.S, I was a bit surprised to see the spi only off 12 points from yesterday's close. Maybe it won't be as bad on Monday as it looks
But I'm quite hungover, so not much is really making sense right now

 

[wayneL]

HG Z6 is copper? Falling through $320 looks ordinary.

HG = the symbol for High Grade Copper futures

Z = the contract expiry month i.e. December

6 = the expiry year i.e. 2006

Expiry month symbols:

Jan = F
Feb = G
Mar = H
Apr = J
May = K
Jun = M
Jul = N
Aug = Q
Sep = U
Oct = V
Nov = X
Dec = Z

So for e.g. the symbol for March 2007 expiry copper is HG H7

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

HG = the symbol for High Grade Copper futures

Z = the contract expiry month i.e. December

6 = the expiry year i.e. 2006

Expiry month symbols:

Jan = F
Feb = G
Mar = H
Apr = J
May = K
Jun = M
Jul = N
Aug = Q
Sep = U
Oct = V
Nov = X
Dec = Z

So for e.g. the symbol for March 2007 expiry copper is HG H7

Cheers

Thanks Wayne. I'm putting my copper bear suit on tomorrow.

 

[Smurf1976]

Thanks Wayne. I'm putting my copper bear suit on tomorrow.

All be on the lookout for kennas the bright and shiny copper bear wondering the streets. Growl... : : :

 

[Fab]

again Kitco is giving me some conflicting information compare to Commsec Commodities which shows big drops in commodities overnight like 11% drop in lead. Who to believe ?
On the other side the Dow jump by 90 points today

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Kitco.

 

[CanOz]

Lead looks a bit weak but overall zinc looks like it back on its way up. Although trading in a range on the 24 hour chart, the 30 day chart looks good.

 

[Fab]

CanOz ,

Where did you get these graph from ?

Cheers

 

[CanOz]

here:

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html

 

[Kauri]

Big sell off today in the Materials index, and the spots for metals looking shaky. Interesting to see whether they stay negative ore not in tonights trading.

 

[Fab]

Looks to me that in the last few days we had a good correction of some of the commodity stocks such as zfx,cbh,mre ...
Maybe an opportunity to buy back as it looks like inflation pressure are easing in OZ and US . The only question mark is a possible slowdown in the us .