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I think this is the lull , I thought they usually lasted for 6-8mths in base metal secular bull markets .
Most projects have been costed , for developers , it's usually at a fixed contract price , variations always get sent to architects on projects , these are add on costs , that either get approved or don't .
Sometimes ( quite often actually ) , the overlaps and under quoting catch up , especially if the developers have to wear any variations .
Mix that with a squeeze on credit , which has been underway since JUNE , it see orders slow down and dribble as inventories are run at lower levels .
That's why there's been a squeeze on steel , because it's expensive stuff and for every tonne produced , around 100 tonnes of water are needed , that's a lot of steam , fortunately they get to reuse a good part of it .
The main market gearing has been toward the Chinese Dam project and infrastructure , with portions leaning to the Olympic games . The US markets may have been heading upwards , but the markets weren't getting reliable data and has been in a technical recession , most of which is product of monetary policy and its effects . That has a domino effect , which will have to be sorted out by the market forces .
There are upsides though , because China and India aren't the only news , there are many large scale projects underway globally . The Korean Pen. will be starting a new channel system , that will take enormous amounts of materials and has come out of left field to much of the market . The figures wouldn't have been done yet on most global projects , until an analyst notices in a companies book .
Then there's the hedge funds , the dobermans of the market , they'll jump between investment vehicles and distort all manor of commodities once they start pressing buttons . A lot of unwinding in many prices is attributed to hedge fund liquidation and the way things look this could continue for a tad longer .
That's just part of the effect , any administrator coming in to square up books is an A grade position liquidator .
These are just a few things that slow base metal prices , look at nickel , it blew it's hat at $51K . Do I think we'll see that again ? Chit I hope so , that would be just groovy , but I'm not expecting any rush .
The rush looks to be coals , like Thermal again . How about wheat , that was a beauty rise , and that's how quickly focus can change .
Focus and commodity price don't have that much in common , it's more sentiment , but you can be guaranteed to notice it on shelf prices at supermarkets .
Don't get me wrong here , I'm not riding the miners off , although they tend to prey on each other at market peaks , which is usally at the cresendo and it looks like piano (slowly/er) to me at present . Zinc has actually seen demand pick up in China , but it is not reflected in the price . Could we just suppose it's trying to find a bottom ? As most ores have or will do .....
Zinifex and Oxiana are treasure troves , they've got war chests , BIG ones that make the old CPH look like a piggy bank . what they do with all that cash will be interesting , ZFX are on the prowl , a buyback would be nice though .
Most projects have been costed , for developers , it's usually at a fixed contract price , variations always get sent to architects on projects , these are add on costs , that either get approved or don't .
Sometimes ( quite often actually ) , the overlaps and under quoting catch up , especially if the developers have to wear any variations .
Mix that with a squeeze on credit , which has been underway since JUNE , it see orders slow down and dribble as inventories are run at lower levels .
That's why there's been a squeeze on steel , because it's expensive stuff and for every tonne produced , around 100 tonnes of water are needed , that's a lot of steam , fortunately they get to reuse a good part of it .
The main market gearing has been toward the Chinese Dam project and infrastructure , with portions leaning to the Olympic games . The US markets may have been heading upwards , but the markets weren't getting reliable data and has been in a technical recession , most of which is product of monetary policy and its effects . That has a domino effect , which will have to be sorted out by the market forces .
There are upsides though , because China and India aren't the only news , there are many large scale projects underway globally . The Korean Pen. will be starting a new channel system , that will take enormous amounts of materials and has come out of left field to much of the market . The figures wouldn't have been done yet on most global projects , until an analyst notices in a companies book .
Then there's the hedge funds , the dobermans of the market , they'll jump between investment vehicles and distort all manor of commodities once they start pressing buttons . A lot of unwinding in many prices is attributed to hedge fund liquidation and the way things look this could continue for a tad longer .
That's just part of the effect , any administrator coming in to square up books is an A grade position liquidator .
These are just a few things that slow base metal prices , look at nickel , it blew it's hat at $51K . Do I think we'll see that again ? Chit I hope so , that would be just groovy , but I'm not expecting any rush .
The rush looks to be coals , like Thermal again . How about wheat , that was a beauty rise , and that's how quickly focus can change .
Focus and commodity price don't have that much in common , it's more sentiment , but you can be guaranteed to notice it on shelf prices at supermarkets .
Don't get me wrong here , I'm not riding the miners off , although they tend to prey on each other at market peaks , which is usally at the cresendo and it looks like piano (slowly/er) to me at present . Zinc has actually seen demand pick up in China , but it is not reflected in the price . Could we just suppose it's trying to find a bottom ? As most ores have or will do .....
Zinifex and Oxiana are treasure troves , they've got war chests , BIG ones that make the old CPH look like a piggy bank . what they do with all that cash will be interesting , ZFX are on the prowl , a buyback would be nice though .
