Commodities tipped to collapse

[coyotte]

does anyone here know at what rate we are printing money? Most people are aware of the U.S expanding their money supply at an exponential rate, but what are we doing here?

post on Kitco last week 9.5%
(US 8%)

Coyotte

 

[rederob]

Base metals are up between 2% and 3% in early European trade (pre-NY open).
I got the feeling today that Oz investors were reluctant to get into commodities any more than they already have.
However, metals are being pushed up by fund money that makes our allords insignificant, so prices are still trending strongly north.
By the way, today's copper price is higher than nickel's price 3 years ago!
Fundamentals for the base metals remain tight and are showing sign of doing anything other than staying that way, or getting tighter.
Who is tipping the collapse, and when?

 

[bvbfan]

God help us if they choose people like this for the future fund, mind you with the cuts in education last decade seems any one with a degree can work for the government.

 

[Kipp]

Is anyone here old enough to remember the last commodities crash (Bullmarket, for one :mexico:? What were the symptoms leading up to it... surely there must be some warning signs?

Of the commodities, isn't gold potentially the most likely to plummet? I mean, isn't most of its price rise attributable to speculation, rather than demand and functionality (as opposed to Zinc, Iron, Nickel etc which are all important components for a variety of things). ---> Please correct me if I'm wrong or you have a different opinion.

 

[kgee]

post on Kitco last week 9.5%
(US 8%)

Coyotte

Does that mean that interest rates here in Australia are under more presure to rise than at the US ... or is there more to the picture such as debt and trade deficit??
Economics aren't my strong point!!

 

[Smurf1976]

Does that mean that interest rates here in Australia are under more presure to rise than at the US ... or is there more to the picture such as debt and trade deficit??
Economics aren't my strong point!!

Both of these two countries have huge trade (including interest on debt owed to foreigners) deficits relative to GDP and both are faced with sharply increasing oil import volumes which aren't going to help in the slightest.

 

[rederob]

Both of these two countries have huge trade (including interest on debt owed to foreigners) deficits relative to GDP and both are faced with sharply increasing oil import volumes which aren't going to help in the slightest.

smurf
It's OK.
twojacks has the answer!
Maybe not - I can't tell if I am joking any more with this government.
Those that think the Budget was so good never thought about our future oil import costs, I'll bet.

Kipp
I'll be brief - you are wrong.
Take a few hours to read through several of the relevant commodity threads - be sure to ignore anything ducati says about gold coz he's done his dash on that one.
Trust me, this time it's different (until the inevitable crash, of course).

kgee
Read the Budget papers and you can become an instant economist. It's like being a lawyer - you are always right, except when you are wrong, and you weren't actually wrong; just that someone interpreted events differently and there opinion held sway.

 

[rederob]

Anyone presently awake needs to go to kitcometals and see what's happening.

http://www.kitcometals.com/

Base metals going ballistic tonight.
Silver and gold on a roll - maybe gold takes out $720 tonight and ducati rides into the wilderness with his "speculation" prognostications that need reworking.

 

[Sean K]

You only have to look at the 80s gold graph to see where this is eventually headed.

Everyone, please, put on a parachute!

 

[rederob]

Message at kitcometals:
Due to technical difficulties, the prices displayed are inaccurate. We are working to solve the problem and we anticipate that it will be corrected soon. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience
Apart from nickel, their prices seem close to the mark (nickel presently indicated cheaper than copper - lol).
Silver at $14.94 as I press to post....

 

[Bobby]

Anyone presently awake needs to go to kitcometals and see what's happening.

http://www.kitcometals.com/

Base metals going ballistic tonight.
Silver and gold on a roll - maybe gold takes out $720 tonight and ducati rides into the wilderness with his "speculation" prognostications that need reworking.

Hi Red,

But duc,s logic on the market can't be wrong ??????????????????

Bob.

 

[clowboy]

Gold might take out $720 tonite? Ha Ha done that already?

$750?

$800?

Will be an interesting night + day on the market tommorow that is for sure.

 

[RichKid]

Message at kitcometals:
Due to technical difficulties, the prices displayed are inaccurate. We are working to solve the problem and we anticipate that it will be corrected soon. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience
Apart from nickel, their prices seem close to the mark (nickel presently indicated cheaper than copper - lol).
Silver at $14.94 as I press to post....

Another source for commodity prices, different units though, Kitco did that last week as well, hope they fix it pronto: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
(All metals prices are still healthy so don't panic guys! (not yet anyway))

 

[RichKid]

Gold might take out $720 tonite? Ha Ha done that already?

$750?

$800?

Will be an interesting night + day on the market tommorow that is for sure.

I've been checking open interest and it looks healthy for gold, high closes for the recent bars. I think there's some sort of method to check when OI goes to extremes. Maybe Wayne'll tell us more. I'll do some checking of COT reports fwiw and post in the gold thread if I can.

 

[coyotte]

Is anyone here old enough to remember the last commodities crash (Bullmarket, for one :mexico:? What were the symptoms leading up to it... surely there must be some warning signs?

Of the commodities, isn't gold potentially the most likely to plummet? I mean, isn't most of its price rise attributable to speculation, rather than demand and functionality (as opposed to Zinc, Iron, Nickel etc which are all important components for a variety of things). ---> Please correct me if I'm wrong or you have a different opinion.

From what I remember it was it's generally a situation very similar to now (should have kept records )

Building Boom comes off the boil

Rising interest rates -- when inflation is rising due to higher costs and NOT due to higher consumer demand

Shortage of materials --puts projects on hold --leads to rising unemployment ---onto falling property values ---hence a surplus of materials

dueing the boom & bust of the 70s you could not even buy nails @ one stage


BUT then we didn't have CHINA


Cheers
Coyotte

 

[tech/a]

BUT then we didn't have CHINA

India,Russia,or Indonesia.

 

[wayneL]

India,Russia,or Indonesia.

...or a collapsing US dollar.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX1!&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

 

[rederob]

...or a collapsing US dollar.

And rising global industrial production!

 

[wayneL]

And rising global industrial production!

....financed by the biggest debt bubble in history.

 

[The Once-ler]

Today will be an interesting day. I couldn't get to sleep last night looking at all the goings on. Thankfully I'm about 80% invested in resources and energy, but you wouldn't know what was going to happen today. Cheers.