BobBobby said:Hi Red,
What are your own thoughts ?
Bob.
rederob said:BHP billiton says copper markets remain very positive
Last Update: 3:29 AM ET May 4, 2006
MELBOURNE (MarketWatch) -- Global miner BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said Thursday that its view of both refined copper and copper concentrate markets remains "very positive" as disruptions to production look set to continue and stockpiles remain low.
"From such low levels it will take some time to rebuild stock to normal levels," BHP said in a statement.
"Large net inflows of fund money have also added to price rises but it is difficult to know when this will end."
The deficit in copper concentrate looks set to persist with China taking over from Japan as the largest market, BHP said. Treatment and refining charges are expected to fall.
BHP Billiton says copper surplus unlikely, even by 2008
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes Last Update: 7:12 AM ET May 4, 2006
MELBOURNE (MarketWatch) -- Global miner BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said Thursday that copper from mines is unlikely to catch up with surging demand by the start of 2008, a longer period than most analysts are predicting.
"The major independent analysts forecast that the market will move back into surplus later in 2006 or in 2007," said John Crofts, BHP's base metals marketing director.
At the end of 2004, analysts had been predicting a surplus at the end of 2005, which hasn't yet happened, Crofts said from London on a conference call.
"Even a surplus in 2007 looks more doubtful as disruptions to production can still continue to restrict," he said. "This is consistent with BHP Billiton's assessment of the market."
Copper price 'set to plunge by 20pc'
By Tom Stevenson (Filed: 04/05/2006)
The soaring price of copper could drop by a fifth in the next two to three months, a senior trader on the floor of the London Metal Exchange has warned. The dealer, who asked to remain anonymous, said recent market fluctuations were typical of the trading pattern prior to a significant change of direction.
"I expect a 20pc correction. The market will be volatile and illiquid for a while before it cracks," he said. The LME accounts for around 90pc of the world's trade in copper, dwarfing rival markets in New York and Shanghai.
The London Metal Exchange
The price of copper has risen by 60pc this year, with the cash price for immediate delivery reaching a peak of $7,391 a tonne this week, a five-fold increase on the $1,400 at which the metal traded only four years ago. At yesterday's lunchtime fix of $7,231, copper has generated huge profits for the speculative funds who have piled into commodities but caused pain for industrial users.
The scepticism on the LME's trading floor is confirmed by the prices being quoted by brokers for delivery on the longest contracts, which are much lower than the current cash price. "Copper is the only commodity in the world, where you can buy for five-year delivery at a 45pc discount," the trader said. "The market is saying the current price is unsustainable or that supply will kick in to meet demand."
An escalation in the volume of speculative trading, and the growing use of commodities as a diversification for pension funds away from equities and bonds, has contributed to the soaring price of the metals traded on the LME. It is estimated that 80pc of trades derive from financial rather than industrial traders.
Big investors such as Hermes, which manages the retirement funds of BT and the Post Office, Calpers, the largest public sector fund in the US, and Sainsbury's pension fund have all announced plans to increase their exposure to commodities.
The International Wrought Copper Council, which represents copper fabricators, wrote to the LME and the Financial Services Authority saying: "This investment or speculative activity has come to dominate the market, tending to divorce it from its industrial base.'
For recent entrants to the market, a downward lurch like that expected by traders would be a stomach-churning reminder that the rise and rise of commodity prices in recent years is not one-way traffic.
Investors are divided between those who believe metal prices are in the early stages of a multi-year upward "super-cycle", driven by demand from the developing economies of China and India, and those who think recent rises are the last gasp of an unsustainable bubble.
Merrill Lynch recently compared the price performance of commodities with listed futures, including copper, with those such as rubber and steel that cannot be traded so easily using derivatives. On the basis of this analysis it concluded the influence of speculators on the market was "unprecedented" and analyst Richard Bernstein warned that "commodity prices always fell in the 12-month period subsequent to extreme commodity speculation".
Trading has soared over the past 18 months at the famously raucous LME, where a twice-daily round of five-minute "rings" sets the prices of six metals - zinc, tin, lead, copper, aluminium and nickel. During a short but intense dealing session, traders from eleven member firms face each other off from positions on a circular red leather-upholstered banquette.
rederob said:Bob
At post #15 on this thread.
Cheers
michael_selway said:Yeah its funny how diff views in regards to copper the analysts have below
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x522474923&f=1774
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...d=242&sSheet=/money/2006/05/04/ixcitytop.html
Thanks !jft said:Have a look at Alan Kohler's interview with Marc Faber on Inside Business yesterday ... its an interesting viewpoint.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1632456.htm
Cheers,
John
jft said:Have a look at Alan Kohler's interview with Marc Faber on Inside Business yesterday ... its an interesting viewpoint.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1632456.htm
Cheers,
John
What he doesn't understand ( and if he did understand he wouldn't be a politician he'd be a rich investor) is that there is almost no similarity between resources and tech in terms of valuation. In the end a bubble is all about valuation and major metal companies and oil companies trading well below the market multiple IS NOT A BUBBLE. A company with no plan to ever be profitable raising $300M is a bubble. A company earning a few million dollars, selling for billions is a bubble. Companies trading at 50 or a 100 times earnings is a bubble. A company trading at 10 times earnings is NOT. Was the treasurer forecasting the end of the tech boom in 2000???
Or we're about to see some serious money printing.bvbfan said:If Costello think commodities are going to collapse then why is he making 36billion in tax cuts.
Either he is an idiot or doesn't believe what he's saying
This is what our taxes pay for:tech/a said:DON'T TAKE YOUR ECONOMIC ADVICE FROM THE GOVERNMENT!!
Smurf1976 said:Or we're about to see some serious money printing.
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