Commodities tipped to collapse

[Wysiwyg]

Somehow I missed reading this unnecessarily antagonistic post.

<amateur psychologist mode> Sounds like you have a lot of capital (both money and emotional) invested up in a perpetual copper bull. The financial capital invested in a view is fine, for it is trading to a view you have of the market. But such an emotional investment, where one feels they must insult anyone with an alternative view is unhealthy and *may* ultimately result in a financially deleterious outcome.

The use of the non-sequiter denotes a suspension of logical arguement. It is OK to hold an alternative view, but one should avoid becoming emotional about it.</amateur psychologist mode>

<zen-goodwill to mankind mode> Merry Christmas to you. </zen-goodwill to mankind mode>

Hello WayneL.....money invested in a perpetual copper bull..no.The purely analytical assessment of topics are helpful and informative.Thanks.I agree with you.

Merry Christmas to you also.

 

[Julia]

From today's SMH.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/01/02/1167500110164.html

Julia

 

[wayneL]

Copper just dipped below $2.70 in the electro market.

Technical support still a long way away too.

 

[noirua]

Copper just dipped below $2.70 in the electro market.

Technical support still a long way away too.

Major miners are down about 4% to 7% in London. Copper is now a peasant not King.

 

[wayneL]

Major miners are down about 4% to 7% in London. Copper is now a peasant not King.

Carnage in the states

Freeport down ~10% Teck-Cominco down 8%

Most of the other majors down about 4% on average.

Wide rage day on the SP too!!!

Oh Man! Action at last!!!!!

 

[wavepicker]

I dare say there will a few surprises and fireworks lined up for the fist half of this year

 

[wayneL]

Forgot to mention feb crude closed at $58 and change, dipping to 57.72 at one stage... thats about 5% down

Exciting day in the US

 

[Dr Doom]

Demand side negatives (again!) -

<> GM sales fell 13 percent in the month, although the automaker reported sales on per-selling-day basis that showed only a 9.7 percent decline. The fall left GM with sales 8.7 percent lower in 2006 than the year before.

The slide at GM in December was much worse than had been forecast. Auto sales tracker Edmunds.com had forecast only a 5.2 percent drop for the largest U.S. automaker in raw terms, and sales down only narrowly on a per-sales day. Shares of Dow component GM plunged about 5 percent following the report.

<> Ford Motor (Charts) reported that U.S. sales fell 12.8 percent from December a year earlier.

 

[Sean K]

With copper and oil getting whacked, funny I have BHP opening up at the moment.

I suppose that will change in the next hour..........

My goldies all look like they'll be swiiming red........

Nickel, Zinc & Lead up 1-2% so maybe the pain won't be that great. Uranium of course maintaining all time high at $72. Iron Ore recent contract price increase in place.

Might be just a pause today, although it is hard to see when copper is going to turn back up. Any guestimates?

 

[dj_420]

im only holding zinc, uranium and iron ore at the moment. im hoping i chose the right path.

im only trying to hold stocks where the fundamentals still look positive.

 

[Fab]

im only holding zinc, uranium and iron ore at the moment. im hoping i chose the right path.

im only trying to hold stocks where the fundamentals still look positive.

Out of interest which stocks do you hold and think the fundamental are right

 

[dj_420]

from all the research ive done i believe the fundamentals are still there for zinc, nickel, uranium, iron ore. we have seen demand outstrip supply for all these commodities, and there is to be expected tightness to continue until supply finally catches up with demand.

obviously there will be huge continued demand for uranium. i actually expected zinc supplies to be more depleted than they currently are, so im re-evaulating my zinc stocks.

ive sold down some of my portfolio but am still holding SMM, MTN, CBH, JML, JMS, UMC.

only had limited capital last year so i only hold a few stocks.

 

[Fab]

Here we go from the overnight LME results it looks like a bit of a collapse. DJ down as well almost 1% , not good at all for ASX opening on monday

 

[chops_a_must]

It will be interesting to see what effect the actions of Hugo Chavez have on the oil price over night. Hugo, I could kiss you. *mwah*

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Chops I'd prefer a LT Oil price of $55-$60 as it will help tame inflation and hence assist equity markets in rallying as Fed can ease up allowing US Economy to limp along (although its not that weak)

If we get an Oil price above $65 soon we will see heavy talking by US Feds and inflation fears which will make the mkts shakey!


I forgot to add, a $55-$60 US/bl price is not too shabby for the Oil companies either,

So be careful what you wish for Chops!

 

[chops_a_must]

VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE
Oil 53.99 -2.10 -3.74
Gold 609.30 -0.10 -0.02
Natural Gas 6.39 0.01 0.20

Not many people would have picked this.

 

[noirua]

VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE
Oil 53.99 -2.10 -3.74
Gold 609.30 -0.10 -0.02
Natural Gas 6.39 0.01 0.20

Not many people would have picked this.

Strong forecasts for oil to hit US$45 a barrel, as futures slide. Low price of oil seen as good for many stocks that are high users of the commodity as most commodity futures hit red. US Dollar rise foreseen and may be negative for gold in the short term.

Commodities to remain strong, seen as Iron Ore and Uranium. Coking coal to weaken in particular with resistance in good quality thermal and PCI coals. Copper to stay at present low levels, and most other metals to soften.

 

[noirua]

Coal prices in Australia: http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200701/1820706.htm?newcastle

 

[noirua]

Most smaller mining stocks are being hit after the negative news coming out of the States on commodity prices. Once the dust has settled, most will have been seen to have fallen, deserved or not.

Stocks, particularly in iron ore, Uranium and those principally in good quality PCI, semi-soft coking and thermal coals should recover. Depending, of course, how much the stock has reversed.

Cash is going to be a big factor as mining turns negative, as raising it will become tougher. Look closely at whether the stocks your in have plenty of cash in the Bank for development.

Is the company making strong profits at the moment. If it's making none, or struggling, the fight gets harder.

Much of the above is obvious of course, but how often we miss it.

 

[Dr Doom]

If you need a forward looking indicator to give you advanced warning for the future of commodity prices then keep looking at US housing. It still hasn't bottomed yet & the effects are usually felt by the general economy some several months later. Only this time it is showing up sooner eg slump in transport, slump in oil price, slump in copper, steel looking fully priced, car makers selling fewer cars. Big red warning light flashing now.