Commodities - more than metals/oil

[Pager]

Wayne

Thanks for the info, much appreciated .

I wont be rushing into trading commodities, more get a feel for them first, have been quite successful day trading index futures mechanically so hopefully that experience will be beneficial and help.

Cheers

Pager

 

[ithatheekret]

We all would have heard of the mad rush to plant corn for the ethanol craze , but I actually believe this will be a negative for the corn price , they've been ripping up the soybean paddocks to plant corn . For me this sees Soya oil and bean prices in for a good rise through 08 , as a matter of fact the range of oils all look good ( not talking black gold either ) . Palm oil which virtually tracks crude prices will be set for runs too , I have not gotten anywhere near projecting a price yet . Still absorbing future prices for my crude projections , I have a $72 , 78 , 83 & 87 on the lower brackets in crude , but my top is above 100 around $114-$117 with a $2.30 swing eitherside of those numbers so far . Still well below the $116-128 it should be when taking inflation into account . If that is the case for crude , then palm oil would have to looking around $930 a tonne or higher .

Wheat , well you must all know I'm on that at 892 , I see more upside on that , but the other soft oils too all look good in my view , the old buy the dips mantra should be rolled out , but I'm not expecting large dips yet to be honest . I do see crudes rise slowing up for a correction , but think we'll have to be rid of the heating oil rush in winter for the NH , which really only leaves us spring , before the next heavy usage stage hits again in summer drivetime in the US .

 

[Wysiwyg]

So i present my case ..

The fact that cocoa is hitting 20 year highs and a report from Ivory Coast that 100,000 tonnes more than last year at port for export 2nd March 2008(though mention of crops tailing off) and this excerpt from Sept. 2007 which suggests production back on trend may well mean the top is near.

At the same time, a severe harmattan* has reduced production in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. However, production is expected to be back on trend in the 2007/2008 season, reaching a level of nearly 3.8 million tonnes. Thereafter, during the projection period from 2007/2008 to 2011/2012, production is expected to increase at an average growth rate of about two per cent.

Coupled with what may be declining consumption due to inflation and global economic downturn i lean toward a peak in prices soon.Of course a technical confirmation of top will be required by most .Only posting the historical chart and thoughts to get a view from others.
*dry winds from the Sahara