Commodities - more than metals/oil

[wayneL]

This ones on my watchlist now.

A textbook trangle trend continuation pattern set up there in cocoa.

If it breaks out I want to be on it as well to pay for the organic cocoa missus buys

...maybe i'll take delivery of a contract, 10 tonnes should keep us going for a while.

 

[CanOz]

A textbook trangle trend continuation pattern set up there in cocoa.

If it breaks out I want to be on it as well to pay for the organic cocoa missus buys

...maybe i'll take delivery of a contract, 10 tonnes should keep us going for a while.

Yeah, its a big contract, i think there is a london mini...i don't have it open and the moment.

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

This ones on my watchlist now.

Break from tri -

...and news article from yesterday

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES



U.S. cocoa futures rose Monday, supported by spec and fund buying and traders
rolling positions out of nearby May ahead of first-notice day, brokers and
analysts say.

May cocoa rose $18 to settle at $1,903 a metric ton and July added $23 to
$1,935 a ton on the New York Board of Trade.

"I think this is mostly just good old spec buying," said Jack Scoville,
analyst and vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago.

"Both the origin and the commercial side seem pretty quiet," he said.

Cocoa futures found early speculative buying interest that sent July to a
session high of $1,943 a ton. Activity subsided early in the session, however,
and prices traded mostly steady and gains were trimmed into the close.

The move took cocoa futures to the upper end of their recent trading range,
and July saw its strongest close in more than a week, a broker said.

A weak U.S. dollar versus the British pound also supported prices, a broker
said.

Traders also finished rolling positions out of May and into July ahead of
first notice for the May contract on Tuesday. The May/July switch was active
once again, and settled at $32, widening from $27 at Friday's settlement.

In news, cocoa farmers in Cameroon's center province are hoarding beans,
expecting higher prices for the commodity, the leader of a prominent farm group
said. About two weeks of continuous rainfall have raised hopes for a good
midcrop harvest in the center province, the spokesman said, although little
flowering of the cocoa trees has been reported.

Mars Inc. announced Monday it will commit $4.5 million over the next three
years to help provide economic, educational and environmental assistance to
communities and individuals in West Africa - the largest producer of cocoa in
the world.

"Mars is committed to long-term solutions to enhance the lives of the people
and communities where cocoa is farmed, and we expect these partnerships to
positively benefit thousands of African farmers and families," Brice Russell,
chief procurement officer at Mars, said in a press release.

Mars is a privately held company and a leading producer of confectionery and
other products in more than 65 countries.

Meanwhile, a record 155,781 futures contracts were traded electronically at
Nybot Friday, beating the high set Thursday of 152,598 contracts, the
IntercontinentalExchange reported. The record high was the fourth daily
electronic record set last week.

Technically, July cocoa finds support at $1,922, $1,880, $1,860, $1,854 and
at the gap from $1,836-$1,814. Resistance is met at $1,943, then at the gap
from $1,950-$1,968 and then the $1,998 contract high.

Volume in the ring was estimated at 7,121 lots, with 11,242 traded
electronically.

In the options, 172 calls and 222 puts traded.

About 3,000 against-actuals traded.


Nybot Change Range Liffe Change Range
May 1,903 up 18 1,896-1,914 May 1,025 unch 1,022-1,032
Jly 1,935 up 23 1,922-1,943 Jly 1,043 unch 1,039-1,049
Sep 1,960 up 25 1,945-1,965 Sep 1,058 dn 1 1,055-1,065

* Nybot settlements in dollars per metric ton with intraday range. Liffe
settlements in pounds per metric ton.



-By Tom Sellen, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5177;

tom.sellen@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-16-07 1328ET

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ info: 83738
N/DJCS,N/DJOS,N/OSAG,N/OSCM,N/OSOV,N/OSTR,N/CMD,N/CMM,N/COC,N/DJWI,N/FCTV,N/MKC
N/SCD

FSN3738 ACOT COCOA COMMENTS FOOD
2007-04-16 17:28:02 UTC
^^^^^^

 

[CanOz]

Nice breakout. Unfortunatly i wasn't in it.

By the time i saw it moving it wasn't worth it with the spread. I think i'm better off trading future contracts and not the CFD's, its just to difficult to find a good entry, then even harder to place a tight stop. Do you use an Australian broker or US Wayne?

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

Nice breakout. Unfortunatly i wasn't in it.

By the time i saw it moving it wasn't worth it with the spread. I think i'm better off trading future contracts and not the CFD's, its just to difficult to find a good entry, then even harder to place a tight stop. Do you use an Australian broker or US Wayne?

Cheers,

IB for electronic contracts.

orionfutures.com for pits/options

but check out www.xpresstrade.com as well

 

[CitySlicker]

Nice breakout. Unfortunatly i wasn't in it.

By the time i saw it moving it wasn't worth it with the spread. I think i'm better off trading future contracts and not the CFD's, its just to difficult to find a good entry, then even harder to place a tight stop. Do you use an Australian broker or US Wayne?

Cheers,

So, why would you use futures contracts over CFDs? Not criticising, just curious, because I use CFDs and have never traded futures.

Futures have always been in the "unknown - too hard" basket for me.

Cheers,
CitySlicker

 

[wayneL]

So, why would you use futures contracts over CFDs? Not criticising, just curious, because I use CFDs and have never traded futures.

Futures have always been in the "unknown - too hard" basket for me.

Cheers,
CitySlicker

Counterparty risk is the main one for me. Probably less contest risk(bid/ask spread + commish) as well (without fully knowing the contest risk for CFDs on commods)

 

[wayneL]

Cocoa........such a beautiful setup, such an ugly result. S.A.R. lol

 

[CanOz]

You ever trade these swings on Cotton Wayne...looking like a good entry for a long soon....does this ever get affected by retail spending?

Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

Coffee looking bullish again too IMO.

 

[UMike]

You ever trade these swings on Cotton Wayne...looking like a good entry for a long soon....does this ever get affected by retail spending?

Cheers,

If so then by those charts in a few days time would be a great time to get in.

 

[CanOz]

Really considering an entry here....even if its short term until this trend is busted...Wayne, really appreciate your thoughts on coffee...and i don't mean if you like it black! LOL!

Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

Got in on this Triangle at 339.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Got in on this Triangle at 339.

Can that looks great you taking that long?

 

[CanOz]

Can that looks great you taking that long?

Yeah, nice low risk setup, i love triangles

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

Yeah, nice low risk setup, i love triangles

Cheers,

I took that trade as well. Good luck to us.

 

[yonnie]

those futures are only so volatile.....

look at a share market index: if it moves 2% in a day its a real cracker.

why would the futures be so volatile?

 

[wayneL]

those futures are only so volatile.....

look at a share market index: if it moves 2% in a day its a real cracker.

why would the futures be so volatile?

I'm not clear what your question is yonnie?

Futures are no more volatile than stocks... in many cases far less so.

 

[yonnie]

yes thats exactly what I mean wayne.

they act like stocks and often not the slow ones, but certainly not like a stock market index where you really can put the leverage on.

BTW I read that futures are only allowed to rise or fall a certain percentage per day.
Now suppose I have a stop loss order to sell my position that turns into a market order when hit with IB for a future.
The market opens for that day and almost straight away the maximum fall is hit again and the market closes for that day. In the meantime price went past my stop price.
Do I sell or do I have no control over that sale and the max might be hit in the next 5 days and I`m broke?

 

[yonnie]

wouldn`t it be very risky not being to get out of your contract and losing your shirt or skirt?

I see there is now a possibility to trade the DJ AIG Commodity Index that consists of 19 physical commodities.
Haven`t really looked into it properly but will probably reflect the changes in a share market index and would be good for long-term trades with maximum leverage.