Commodities - more than metals/oil

[Seaking]

There is no better than esignal, but once you go past trading eminis, all the subscriptions will cost you a fortune. A small impost if you are bigtime, but for the average trader it adds up to a lot.

You can feed IB data into amibroker and it's free if you are a client, and most brokers will give you live snapshot charts. I use the IB feed plus an EOD download which works out very economically.

Thanks Wayne. I did look at IB as a broker but decided to stay with brokerone as my system is end of day and they have a desk to work my orders. I use their iress platform for the SPI and enjoy doing some pattern scalping during the day session, but wanted to use amibroker rather than basic iress charts.
I got a price from esignal last night for the SFE, HangSeng and Singapore and it came to $223US a month. Not too bad for what I want now, but as you said, once you start on the bigger exchanges, it get's a bit exy...

Originally Posted by wayneL
Here's one guys view http://www.moneyweek.com/file/27973/...very-time.html

I would add that I like the non correlated returns. If you are all long in the stock market and Greedscam open his mouth without being asked, your whole portfolio takes a hit. But Corn or Lean Hogs don't give a stuff about Greedscam. You will have longs or shorts in completely uncorrelated markets, and I like that.

I still like stocks though. Stocks you can stick in the bottom drawer. In my view commodities themselves are not "investments". They must be managed unless you're Jim Rogers.

The above reason is exactly why I am moving in the commodities direction. I'm getting a bit weary of all my open equity positions all moving in unison no matter how hard I try to spread the diversity.

 

[CanOz]

Anyone catch that recent move in Wheat?

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

Anyone catch that recent move in Wheat?

Cheers,

The totally hilarious thing about this move in wheat, is that all the ex-spurts were expecting this sort of thing in corn. LOL

Instead there is a glut of corn and the whole US wheat crop is dead.

 

[CanOz]

The totally hilarious thing about this move in wheat, is that all the ex-spurts were expecting this sort of thing in corn. LOL

Instead there is a glut of corn and the whole US wheat crop is dead.

LOL! I just came across it while browsing produce....

Could be a short opp!

Might have to short it on the Sim!

Cheers,

 

[topcropper]

Instead there is a glut of corn and the whole US wheat crop is dead.

It's got nothing to do with the US wheat crop. It's all to do with the dry in Australia. Over here we were heading for a big crop 6 weeks ago, however no rain in 2 more weeks and we will have a very small crop. Take another 10 million tonnes from world wheat stocks and things are getting grim.

See ya's.

 

[wayneL]

It's got nothing to do with the US wheat crop. It's all to do with the dry in Australia. Over here we were heading for a big crop 6 weeks ago, however no rain in 2 more weeks and we will have a very small crop. Take another 10 million tonnes from world wheat stocks and things are getting grim.

See ya's.

By "over here" I take it you mean the US?

You'll have to get used to our offhand use of hyperbole... isn't it obvious?

 

[topcropper]

Sorry.

'over here', I mean in Australia.

Australia is driving wheat prices. A month ago it was looking like a 20 million plus crop. Today it is a lot less. In 2 weeks with no rain, it could be similar to last years pitifull crop.

Wheat futures in Chicago are rising or dropping right now on what happens in Australia. A lot of the buying is Aussie wheat farmers buying back their contracts as they can't deliver, they will produce less than they have hedged.

I'm an Aussie wheat grower.

See ya's.

 

[wayneL]

Sorry.

'over here', I mean in Australia.

Australia is driving wheat prices. A month ago it was looking like a 20 million plus crop. Today it is a lot less. In 2 weeks with no rain, it could be similar to last years pitifull crop.

Wheat futures in Chicago are rising or dropping right now on what happens in Australia. A lot of the buying is Aussie wheat farmers buying back their contracts as they can't deliver, they will produce less than they have hedged.

I'm an Aussie wheat grower.

See ya's.

<hyperbole>Notwithstanding that the entire US wheat crop is dead</hyperbole>

That's why they're sweating on the Aus. crop. A good crop there and they wouldn't give a toss what's happening here

 

[CanOz]

Sorry to interupt the corn debate, but heres an interesting technical setup in Canola...A reverse H&S just after the last H&S...i'm taking this trade on the IB Sim once that NL is broken.

Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

Wheat debate...sorry.....still got Waynes comments about corn on the brain.


cheers,

 

[Temjin]

An interesting article for grains, titled "The Big Bull Market in Grains",

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2062.html

An ETF that charts the DJ-AIG Grains Sub-Index

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=AIGG:LN

 

[CanOz]

Breakout confirmed, hang on! Another grain taking off, Canola out of the reverse H&S.

Cheers,

 

[Pager]

I’m interested to start trading commodities, so after some opinion and recommendation of contracts to follow, rather than follow all of them im after a mix of around 5 or 6 markets.

Also want a mix that are uncorrelated to each other to get me up and going, have only been following NYBOT Sugar so far, has good volume and contract size is not huge, would want to add one of the grain contracts, maybe Corn?, but with several contracts which would be best, have been also following Lumber but volume is pretty low so maybe i will cross that of the list.

Any suggestions of a portfolio to watch would be appreciated.

Cheers

Pager

 

[wayneL]

I’m interested to start trading commodities, so after some opinion and recommendation of contracts to follow, rather than follow all of them im after a mix of around 5 or 6 markets.

Also want a mix that are uncorrelated to each other to get me up and going, have only been following NYBOT Sugar so far, has good volume and contract size is not huge, would want to add one of the grain contracts, maybe Corn?, but with several contracts which would be best, have been also following Lumber but volume is pretty low so maybe i will cross that of the list.

Any suggestions of a portfolio to watch would be appreciated.

Cheers

Pager

A few suggestions to choose from that have reasonable liquidity and not too large.

NYBOT Cocoa CC
NYBOT CT
CBOT mini Gold YG
NYBOT Coffee KC
LIFFE Coffee D
NYMEX Mini Crude QM
NYBOT Sugar SB
LIFFE Sugar W
CBOT Corn ZC
EUREX Bund GBL
Maybe CBOT Wheat ZW
Maybe CBOT Beans ZS
Maybe CBOT T-Notes ZN

Livestock can be OK but illiquid on Globex at this point

A few choices there anyway.

Cheers

 

[Pager]

Thanks Wayne

Much appreciated

 

[wayneL]

NYBOT Coffee has a bit of a woodie on at the moment, up 5% and breaking out of resistance.

There was a textbook trade early this month off support.. nice if anyone caught it.

 

[Pager]

A few suggestions to choose from that have reasonable liquidity and not too large.

NYBOT Cocoa CC
NYBOT CT
CBOT mini Gold YG
NYBOT Coffee KC
LIFFE Coffee D
NYMEX Mini Crude QM
NYBOT Sugar SB
LIFFE Sugar W
CBOT Corn ZC
EUREX Bund GBL
Maybe CBOT Wheat ZW
Maybe CBOT Beans ZS
Maybe CBOT T-Notes ZN

Livestock can be OK but illiquid on Globex at this point

A few choices there anyway.

Cheers

Hi Wayne

Probably no right or wrong answer but!

Im interested in how you set-up your charts for these commodity markets, looking at my data I have various options as some of the markets have both Pit and electronic trading, some have after hours trading.

I’m inclined to go for continuous contracts but for the main session (pit session) only, what would you advise in regard to the markets in your suggested list?

Also any other pieces of advice to trading these markets you could offer?

Cheers

Pager

 

[CanOz]

Hi Wayne

Probably no right or wrong answer but!

Im interested in how you set-up your charts for these commodity markets, looking at my data I have various options as some of the markets have both Pit and electronic trading, some have after hours trading.

I’m inclined to go for continuous contracts but for the main session (pit session) only, what would you advise in regard to the markets in your suggested list?

Also any other pieces of advice to trading these markets you could offer?

Cheers

Pager

Good on ya Pager, i'll be watching this thread closely. Is that a mechanical approach you're taking?

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

OK I'm no guru, this is just what I do.

The only pit contracts I trade are the CME livestock contracts, (and most options are still pit traded)

As all other contacts now have good liquidity, I trade the electronics, so chart those.

Now as to whether to chart the pit session only or 24 hours, depends on the contract and how much it generally moves out of hours.

These I use 24 hour charts.
Crude Oil
Nat Gas
Gold
T-notes Bonds etc
Currency futures.

All others I only chart the pit session, but I do keep an eye on out of hours movements with audible alarms etc. particularly, grains and NYBOT coffee. This just suits the way I like to trade.

Nothing beats simple observation and learning about each contracts specifications and nuances. Each market is different, has different opening times etc. It's a lot extra to learn over stocks, but that what attracted me in the first place to commods... non-correlation (though be careful there are some correlations between certain markets)

One thing to be careful of is that some contracts are physical delivery such as Gold. This means that at some point before the expiry of the contract, there will be a notice day where you are required to arrange for delivery. Know when this is and be out of that contract and on to the next one.

A simple clue is open interest. About 4 or 5 weeks before expiry you will notice a rapid drop in OI, this is time to consider the next contract if opening a trade, or rolling to the next contract if already in a trade.

Here is the NYBOT Coffee specs for eg:



Good luck

 

[wayneL]

Here is a good illustration of open interest indicator



OI is the red dots. Notice how it builds up and accelerates upwards in March. This is from traders switching to this contract from the last one.

Also Notice how it gently drops off and fall off the cliff in late May. This is traders getting out of this contract and on to the next one because of the notice period. The last month of the contract has virtually no open interest, because hardley anyone wants to take physical delivery.

Also note volume.