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Coal - where to now?

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qldfrog said:
Yes sure.indeed what is the actual uptake of EV? .how many EV sold in 2021 vs ice?
Click to expand...
"EV sales in H1 2021 nearly tripled worldwide compared to the first half of last year. Some of the increase can be attributed to slow vehicle sales caused by the pandemic in 2020. Share of EV sales in global passenger car sales doubled compared to the same period last year and now stands at 7% globally. There has not been a year when ICE sales were displaced at this rate."

Electric vehicle sales to vault over 6 million in 2021 | Wood Mackenzie

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to vault over 6 million this year, says Wood Mackenzie.
www.woodmac.com
 
The thing is as Frog says a lot of the owners of some coal power stations will be looking for a way out, the banks etc are reluctant to lend money to them, the excessive cycling of the plant brings on maintenance issues and as Ann says they are on a definite time line.
The thing is there is lot of very expensive and essential infrastructure in place, eg transmission lines, switchyards and associated equipment, this leads to three possibilities, renewables, grid storage batteries, or at a later date possible SMR's.
It actually could be a master stroke.
 
Might reach 7% of cars in 2021
So 93% ice, 7% EV worldwideif ev sales tripple, they will reach the 20%....
Plenty of demands for fossil fuel, and restricted supplies so nice price jump.even better, these EVs will need power which for the time being will come from coal.
Nice future ahead for coal producers but maybe not for those located within the league of Woke of the west..and this will include Australia.
 
Sorry was doing my searches and typing answer.was a bit slow so yes nearly 7%
 
This is somewhat encouraging for the price of coal and the profitability of the coalers..

''China may raise coal contract prices in 2022 after squeeze"

"China plans to raise the benchmark price for long-term coal contracts in 2022 after a supply scare earlier this year, adding to inflationary pressures faced by manufacturers.

The National Development and Reform Commission drafted a plan to set the benchmark rate for thermal coal at 700 yuan ($110) a tonne for long-term contracts, allowing prices to rise or fall within a 150 yuan band around it in monthly adjustments, according to people familiar with the plan. The agency is seeking opinions on the plan, the people said. The NDRC didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment."

China may raise coal contract prices in 2022 after squeeze

Higher coal prices will likely mean steeper electricity costs for industrial customers.
www.mining.com
 
yep am glad i didn't dump my coal exposure

WHC has been a roller-coaster ride for me bought @ $1.555 and $1.29 and reduced ( NOT sold out ) and @ $3.55 both times

exciting without any investment cash risk currently

( have been less successful with NHC , but still looks to be fixable , with timing and patience )
 

Can't see coal use ending any time soon especially when hydrogen can be extracted via gasification (and possibly other) methods.

As per the link to the Coal Age website 7th of May 2021 article:-

 

Victoria is going to be in deep doo doo when Loy Yang A and B are decommissioned early, unless some gigantic batteries are built, hydrogen is a real industrial level option, more Tassie hydro capacity can be somehow harnessed, or a nuclear plant/SMRs are ready to replace them.
 
Yes there seems to be a lot of kicking the can down the road ATM, pledges and commitments, without much in the way of realistic alternatives.
I guess it's like everything else tell the unwashed masses what they want to hear, then they move on to the next issue to whinge about. ?
 
From the same report quoted by @Ann
“China’s influence on coal markets is difficult to overstate. China’s power generation, including district heating, accounts for one-third of global coal consumption,”

and one from the wishful thinking brigade..(Ember, a climate think tank)
“Coal power will inevitably begin to decline soon: China has committed to phasing down coal from 2025, while India’s huge renewables target should remove the need for more coal.”
 
not if you bought coal producers in the dips and sold the Australian utility companies in a profit ( but to be fair AST and SKI are take-overs so i didn't have much say in the profits crystallized )

having been interested ( and wasting money in ) clean energy technology this was clear to see coming ( like a snail with truck spotlights on high beam )

the whole 'global warming thing started as a tax scam , and a few well meaning Greenies jumped on hoping the 'dream' was true , a few politicians hoping for extra votes .. and here we are hoaxers , dreamers , and serial over-promisers .. and tax addicts

and all the better tech should have gone into the under-developed nations FIRST to leverage the cheaper labour , and harvest the development gains ( cheaper power means cheaper manufacturing and production )
 

I really hope they are sincere, but I think geopoliticalsecurity issues will trump China and India following through. One of our only hopes for the democracies of the World is for India to develop more quickly, on the back of cheap, reliable energy. They need to bring about 500m out of poverty and build their economy and industrial base as rapidly as China did over the past 20 year, but fast track it to the next 10. Then there might be a nicer balance of power in the IndoPacific. The Quad on one side, and China/Russia on the other. The new democracies of ASEAN will support the Quad, so it'll all be on China to real themselves in. They are trapped by geography, which determines geopoliticalmiltary success and they don't have it. They're trapped. The only way they can really expand is to go NW. The Jesus nut for the Quad is the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, owned by India. India have fortressed the place and can shut it off to all traffic going from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. For China to take Taiwan, they'll actually need to secure that passage first, because if they pull the trigger first, India will just close it down and China are stuffed. I think I went off topic there. Anyway, India need cheap energy, for all our sakes.
 
sptrawler said:
India aren't going to do it with solar power. Maybe a lot of hydro in the Himalayan mountains
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That one's been thought of..... Entura Hydro Tasmania India Pvt Ltd is thing yes. So to the extent India dams its way to power, Australian expertise is going to be involved on the engineering side for some projects at least.

Coal's going to be a big part of it though at least for the medium term, no question there, the sheer scale of the country's population is such that parallel development of all energy forms is the most likely scenario. All as in wind, solar, hydro, coal, nuclear and so on. All.

From an investment perspective though it's not so straightforward since whilst it doesn't have an actual monopoly, state-owned Coal India is certainly very dominant in coal production in the country at present.
 
Sean K said:
Victoria is going to be in deep doo doo when Loy Yang A and B are decommissioned early
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For the record for those unaware, there are two coal mines presently operating in Victoria.

Yallourn owned by Energy Australia which supplies coal exclusively to the adjacent Yallourn power station.

Loy Yang owned by AGL which sends about two thirds of production to AGL's Loy Yang A power station, about one third to rival company Alinta's Loy Yang B power station and minor amounts for other incidental buyers.

Yallourn is closing completely in 2028 on present plans, bringing a final end to an end an operation which commenced production in 1924 and which has operated almost continuously since that time.

Loy Yang will be shut completely by 2048 on present "official" plans but realistically most are expecting it to go somewhat sooner in practice. Loy Yang commercial scale production commenced in 1984 and reached full capacity in 1996.
 
sptrawler said:
Industrialisation takes a lot of power, as China has proven, India aren't going to do it with solar power. Maybe a lot of hydro in the Himalayan mountains, but one would think coal or gas has to play a major part also.
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yes, I need to study up on rivers and where they flow from, but from my understanding of the Tibetan Plateau is that China took Tibet for long term grand strategic effect - control the water from the Himalayas. They have SE Asia fresh water in their control. I’m not sure how we missed that.
 

I’d say long term. Hundreds of new coal plants are being built and will be in operation for decades, probably into the 2100s. From a ‘end is nigh’ perspective with the continued use of FF, how do we reconcile that? We need to stop Asia developing with FF or provide FF free alternatives for them. In the next few years Chindia will be the two biggest economies in the World. Obviously, Joe Blow in the streets of Melbourne is not going to support that.

I‘ll say it again, geostrategicsecurity imperatives will trump coral bleaching. Chindia will do all they can to catch up to the West.
 
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