Coal - where to now?

[Sean K]

For the record for those unaware, there are two coal mines presently operating in Victoria.

Yallourn owned by Energy Australia which supplies coal exclusively to the adjacent Yallourn power station.

Loy Yang owned by AGL which sends about two thirds of production to AGL's Loy Yang A power station, about one third to rival company Alinta's Loy Yang B power station and minor amounts for other incidental buyers.

Yallourn is closing completely in 2028 on present plans, bringing a final end to an end an operation which commenced production in 1924 and which has operated almost continuously since that time.

Loy Yang will be shut completely by 2048 on present "official" plans but realistically most are expecting it to go somewhat sooner in practice. Loy Yang commercial scale production commenced in 1984 and reached full capacity in 1996.

Thanks for expanding Smurf. The last thing I read was that shut downs were being brought forward by years and the energy regulator was concerned with a gap between supply and demand. It’s all over the news. The major risk is that there is no definite solution for 24/7 power, just hope. It’s only a decade away.

 

[Sean K]

And, while I’m at grand strategic planning, which is 50+ years into the future, if Western democracies see China as a threat, we need to start cutting off their supply now, to send a message. We are in control, but for not much longer. Unfortunately, short term political gain through our democraticly elected government system can‘t really see past the next election cycle which makes us vulnerable. My crystal ball tells me this is going to pan out like what happened in the SW Pacific in WW2. China will go on an adventure, but then be cut off, and lose. Um, coal is the topic, so, they will run out of fuel and iron ore.

 

[divs4ever]

I’d say long term. Hundreds of new coal plants are being built and will be in operation for decades, probably into the 2100s. From a ‘end is nigh’ perspective with the continued use of FF, how do we reconcile that? We need to stop Asia developing with FF or provide FF free alternatives for them. In the next few years Chindia will be the two biggest economies in the World. Obviously, Joe Blow in the streets of Melbourne is not going to support that.

I‘ll say it again, geostrategicsecurity imperatives will trump coral bleaching. Chindia will do all they can to catch up to the West.

catch ??

overtake more likely

unless Chindia are more fascinated by space expansion/exploration

 

[Sean K]

catch ??

overtake more likely

unless Chindia are more fascinated by space expansion/exploration

Eventually, way overtake. Unless they implode. Both countries at risk of internal division.

 

[divs4ever]

well i wouldn't call India united yet , i see them as still feeling their way forward from British rule

i see them becoming a monster , whether that is a good monster or a not so good one is yet to be seen

and yes i am still looking carefully for more ways to get exposure to India

further to this i see a potential 'trading bloc ' of India , Bangladesh , Sri Lanka and Pakistan ( although Pakistan might have to let the 'tribal lands ' merge with Afghanistan ) , it will be interesting to see who joins the bloc , that also might resolve Kashmir

China is used to resisting division ( often resorting to massive brutality ) assuming Russia stays on the sidelines , good luck trying to divide China in it's own homeland ( using external forces ) one would have thought Korea was warning enough .. an internal regime change could turn out very badly also .

i don't love the CCP but this regime is more refined than some predecessors things could be much worse

 

[bluekelah]

And, while I’m at grand strategic planning, which is 50+ years into the future, if Western democracies see China as a threat, we need to start cutting off their supply now, to send a message. We are in control, but for not much longer. Unfortunately, short term political gain through our democraticly elected government system can‘t really see past the next election cycle which makes us vulnerable. My crystal ball tells me this is going to pan out like what happened in the SW Pacific in WW2. China will go on an adventure, but then be cut off, and lose. Um, coal is the topic, so, they will run out of fuel and iron ore.

I wouldnt worry too much about China, they now have too much internal debt, compounded by a shrinking population. The whole economic growth story there is predicated on rising house prices They will very likely than not go the way of Japan in the 1990s once their property bubble pops and banking sector goes down.

India is another mega country that's just a big mess. They are struggling with overpopulation and very very bad infrastructure, from what i read their power grid is a mess, and just look at what happened with the last covid wave, what a mess.

 

[Smurf1976]

Thanks for expanding Smurf. The last thing I read was that shut downs were being brought forward by years and the energy regulator was concerned with a gap between supply and demand.

Yallourn closure date has officially been moved forward.

Original plan was to close one of the four generating units each year 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032.

New plan is to close the whole lot in 2028. Mine and power station all shuts in one go.

In short the operation has become financially extremely marginal, not helped by the structural problems with the mine which threaten to flood it and need ~$150 million to fix immediately.

A deal has been done between Energy Australia and the Victorian state government which keeps it open through to 2028 then it's game over.

For Loy Yang the "official" date hasn't changed, it's still 2047-48, but you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who isn't expecting that to be moved forward in practice.

AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) have recently suggested 2032, noting that's them forecasting what they expect will occur (as distinct from directing that it must occur which isn't their role) Personally I'm unconvinced it'll be quite that soon but I do expect it to be in the 2030's.

The overall trend for power generation from coal in Australia is pretty clear as the following chart shows. This includes data for all states including those not part of the National Electricity Market. Basis is calendar year so 2021 is incomplete obviously (and ignore 1998 as that's only a couple of weeks' worth).



So to the extent anyone's investing in coal, pay attention to the export market. It's already a doomed industry in the Australian domestic context and anyone saying otherwise is simply playing politics.

2020 volume was down more than 24% from the peak year, 2008, and the downtrend continues.

 

[divs4ever]

can't be completely doomed the QLD Government is promising hydrogen powered train engines to track QLD coal to port

i am guessing it will take at least 3 years to build the first successful engine ,

but they will plenty more to keep up for mine production ( assuming Adani never gets a green-light and the New Hope project never gets approval for the expansion )

 

[divs4ever]

so i am guessing there is a pivotal election soon and the ALP needs to pander to both sides of the left ( Greens and CFMEU )

 

[Smurf1976]

can't be completely doomed the QLD Government is promising hydrogen powered train engines to track QLD coal to port

Just because there's a downtrend in use locally doesn't mean the same is true globally. That coal would be for export mostly.

 

[divs4ever]

i suspect it will be mostly for export and political grandstanding ( and tax-gouging )

i can only hope the enduring companies can make a profit ( and pay divs )

it will be interesting to see how QLD fills it's power needs if it exports the LNG and and coal we don't have that much hydro , plenty of sunshine in the daylight , but sometimes brutal winds and the population is spread out ( much bigger than Victoria or NSW )

 

[qldfrog]

I wouldnt worry too much about China, they now have too much internal debt, compounded by a shrinking population. The whole economic growth story there is predicated on rising house prices They will very likely than not go the way of Japan in the 1990s once their property bubble pops and banking sector goes down.

India is another mega country that's just a big mess. They are struggling with overpopulation and very very bad infrastructure, from what i read their power grid is a mess, and just look at what happened with the last covid wave, what a mess.

Perception and wish ful thinking of your media outlets
... Japan 30y after their so called demise is still a mega country and one of the nicest place on earth to live
No immigration, a doomed policy europe and the us citizens can now only dream of.
Remaining united as a culture and country

China: they just produce and make everything,not only your crap stuff,have full control on the world already and our greed make it unstoppable.still laughting to the cash teller after covid and CC green moves of the west.United as a country.
India ..a mess but whatever your propaganda tells you,bdid much better with covid than Europe or the us.hardly anyone jabbed but they allowed treatment..can sometimes be great not to be able to afford Pfizer....
I do not believe in India as superpower but i could be wrong.especially after discovering,feet on ground, the misconceptions with China.
Back to coal: here to stay for a long time..decades.
Did not too badly with coal this year but now out.
As with crypto, the risk is the narrative/western politicians forcing closure of these assets.
The asx could soon have no coal assets or companies flogged with extra taxes the coal will be mined and burnt, but not by western companies we will be able to invest in... pure capitalism is long dead here.

 

[Ann]

Another interesting article in the WSJ, I can't read it all but I can get the gist of it. I am wondering if they have decided, 'good money, after bad'?

WSJ News Exclusive | Investors Balk at Plan to Buy Coal Mines and Close Them

Citigroup and its partners shelved an investment fund they said would put an end date on thermal-coal mines to lower carbon emissions.

www.wsj.com

I know some here may have vastly forward plans on the viability of coal and whatever,
I on the other hand have a one year view! So I am happy with this article

Coal power’s sharp rebound is taking it to a new record in 2021, threatening net zero goals - News - IEA

Coal power’s sharp rebound is taking it to a new record in 2021, threatening net zero goals - News from the International Energy Agency

www.iea.org

 

[divs4ever]

coal mines are expensive to close and repatriate , maybe somebody forgot to add that to their reckoning ( if you bankrupt the mine , not only do you lose royalties and jobs , but the government/public get to pick up the tab ... or worse still the INSURANCE companies .. you now the little darlings that always get bailed out )

and think of the financial instruments riding on the coal industry ( the banks and fund managers feed on them )

if they REALLY worried about the future , why not boycott funding nuclear ( and biological ) weapons research ( either is more likely to kill us quicker than air pollution )

 

[Sean K]

The headlines will continue on this for some time. I'm still not sure how I feel about it.

Cheap, reliable energy in natural abundance, that turned us into the most prosperous country in the World per capita / land mass.

And, we're giving up that advantage.

From a national security perspective, it's bonkers.

 

[bluekelah]

Perception and wish ful thinking of your media outlets
... Japan 30y after their so called demise is still a mega country and one of the nicest place on earth to live
No immigration, a doomed policy europe and the us citizens can now only dream of.
Remaining united as a culture and country

China: they just produce and make everything,not only your crap stuff,have full control on the world already and our greed make it unstoppable.still laughting to the cash teller after covid and CC green moves of the west.United as a country.
India ..a mess but whatever your propaganda tells you,bdid much better with covid than Europe or the us.hardly anyone jabbed but they allowed treatment..can sometimes be great not to be able to afford Pfizer....
I do not believe in India as superpower but i could be wrong.especially after discovering,feet on ground, the misconceptions with China.
Back to coal: here to stay for a long time..decades.
Did not too badly with coal this year but now out.
As with crypto, the risk is the narrative/western politicians forcing closure of these assets.
The asx could soon have no coal assets or companies flogged with extra taxes the coal will be mined and burnt, but not by western companies we will be able to invest in... pure capitalism is long dead here.

Nothing to do with media outlet, its just what happened in history and whats happening right now.

Japan had decades of subpar economic growth following the 1990s collapse and lost decades. Sure they are a mega country , nice clean streets, efficient transport etc in cities, but they are nothing to worry about.

China does not MAKE EVERYTHING. I have things like plastic coin capsules for my silver/gold coins that are fully made in USA.
Even if you talk electronics and tech stuff, Lotsa electronics stuff I had as a kid was made in Japan. Lotsa stuff is now made in China but not everything. Top wafer fab TSMC has foundries in Taiwan/USA and China.Theres lotsa stuff like ships/containers/oil rigs/military weapons NOT made in China. And of course all the food I eat is not produced in China. Even simple stuff like STEEL is made locally in Japan/Europe/USA/etc. though CHina has been trying to undercut and monopolise the sector.

In addition, a lot of manufacturing is moving out, smaller countries like Vietnam (yep thats where Samsung has gone, not China) are going gangbusters. Pretty much as costs eventually rise too much in China, manufacturing will move out. Covid and China's iron fisted response has also caused many companies to move some production out to reduce concentration risk.

Population wise China is going the same way as Japan, why do you think the 1chil policy has become a 2 and then this year a 3 child policy?

Property bubble is plain to see if you are on the ground in china, theres just ghost cities and endless miles of non occupied housing.
united country or not, when population growth goes negative, its hard to manage that and it will limit China the same way it limits Japan and many other developed nations. A developed Chinese economy growing at 2% GDP or less a year is not gonna be much of a threat.

As I said in my response to the previous post, nothing to worry about, we dont have to cut coal or other supplies to them.

 

[divs4ever]

from my observation , when nations become more stable , and better developed there is less pressure to have large families , and less large families flows on the whole economy ( less people likely to starve )

now China came in with a policy , that probably looked clever at the time , but many nations now have shrinking , aging populations ( if your ignore immigration ) it just maybe rising living standards , was all that was needed ( India should be educational if my observations are correct , as it MUST reduce internal bottle-necks and bring in safe water )

 

[qldfrog]

Nothing to do with media outlet, its just what happened in history and whats happening right now.

Japan had decades of subpar economic growth following the 1990s collapse and lost decades. Sure they are a mega country , nice clean streets, efficient transport etc in cities, but they are nothing to worry about.

China does not MAKE EVERYTHING. I have things like plastic coin capsules for my silver/gold coins that are fully made in USA.
Even if you talk electronics and tech stuff, Lotsa electronics stuff I had as a kid was made in Japan. Lotsa stuff is now made in China but not everything. Top wafer fab TSMC has foundries in Taiwan/USA and China.Theres lotsa stuff like ships/containers/oil rigs/military weapons NOT made in China. And of course all the food I eat is not produced in China. Even simple stuff like STEEL is made locally in Japan/Europe/USA/etc. though CHina has been trying to undercut and monopolise the sector.

In addition, a lot of manufacturing is moving out, smaller countries like Vietnam (yep thats where Samsung has gone, not China) are going gangbusters. Pretty much as costs eventually rise too much in China, manufacturing will move out. Covid and China's iron fisted response has also caused many companies to move some production out to reduce concentration risk.

Population wise China is going the same way as Japan, why do you think the 1chil policy has become a 2 and then this year a 3 child policy?

Property bubble is plain to see if you are on the ground in china, theres just ghost cities and endless miles of non occupied housing.
united country or not, when population growth goes negative, its hard to manage that and it will limit China the same way it limits Japan and many other developed nations. A developed Chinese economy growing at 2% GDP or less a year is not gonna be much of a threat.

As I said in my response to the previous post, nothing to worry about, we dont have to cut coal or other supplies to them.

I hope you are right,we can agree to disagree.
Right now,this is being tested.it is pretty clear in my mind that the covid crisis is just a pretext to the start of an hotter economic war/ confrontation China/west.
food indeed is the weak point of China,not population aging.but i think they can overcome that with alliances being built and takeover of africa
I was feet on ground for 3y, up to covid in mainland China, Guandong province,i saw these new cities but i also saw the matching refineries,factories and infrastructure.
And i saw Europe,the US at the same time.i also see that it is very hard to find anything not build in china in Australia.
much to worry about,
quite too late to just worry about in my opinion.
but in the context of this specific thread,this is good.
It means more coal use by China in the next decade
And India backwardness and on going population growth means they will then take over coal capacity ,whatever China will leave as they move to cleaner energy.

 

[Smurf1976]

,we can agree to disagree.

An important point worth highlighting in the context of the whole debate and one that is very often lost in the wider world (outside this forum).

Energy's a subject where even if someone gets it factually 100% correct, saying it publicly can be dangerous since many have a strong ideological view and are simply closed to hearing anything which contradicts it.

Personally I'm more than open to all ideas, including those I disagree with, but at the same time I'm well aware that an energy company CEO was forced to resign not too long ago immediately after they publicly commented about coal not being the future. Expressing an opinion, even a well informed one, can be dangerous.

It's hard to escape politics where energy of any form is concerned and that's especially so with coal. But yes, all views ought be heard and this forum is one of the very few places where discussion does remain civilised.

 

[divs4ever]

And India backwardness and on going population growth means they will then take over coal capacity ,whatever China will leave as they move to cleaner energy.

maybe NOT , depending on who leads India into the future , i half expect a leap to nuclear power ( unless the wave-power folks get their act together )

India was lots of infrastructure bottle-necks , not endemic low IQs i expect them to see affordable , efficient ways forward , leap-frogging some usual progression ( say bypassing gas/diesel power-plants )

now i hold some coal stocks and hope i am absolutely wrong but i see South America and Africa is bigger coal power users ( and using coal to make steel as well )