Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coal - where to now?

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divs4ever said:
maybe NOT , depending on who leads India into the future , i half expect a leap to nuclear power ( unless the wave-power folks get their act together )

India was lots of infrastructure bottle-necks , not endemic low IQs i expect them to see affordable , efficient ways forward , leap-frogging some usual progression ( say bypassing gas/diesel power-plants )

now i hold some coal stocks and hope i am absolutely wrong but i see South America and Africa is bigger coal power users ( and using coal to make steel as well )
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My guess is, the only way for us specifically to rapidly close down coal, is to move quickly to gas turbines/ renewables + storage, as we have the ability to fill all those spaces.
Then when that is completed, IMO there will be a move toward nuclear, this will then allow the turbines to be used as another dispatchable/ storage medium using H2, how other countries do it is anyone's guess.lol
 
qldfrog said:
I hope you are right,we can agree to disagree.
Right now,this is being tested.it is pretty clear in my mind that the covid crisis is just a pretext to the start of an hotter economic war/ confrontation China/west.
food indeed is the weak point of China,not population aging.but i think they can overcome that with alliances being built and takeover of africa
I was feet on ground for 3y, up to covid in mainland China, Guandong province,i saw these new cities but i also saw the matching refineries,factories and infrastructure.
And i saw Europe,the US at the same time.i also see that it is very hard to find anything not build in china in Australia.
much to worry about,
quite too late to just worry about in my opinion.
but in the context of this specific thread,this is good.
It means more coal use by China in the next decade
And India backwardness and on going population growth means they will then take over coal capacity ,whatever China will leave as they move to cleaner energy.
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for sure there will be some tussles between megapowers like China+Rus vs USA+allies, some of it will be political as well one side being communist and one side democratic.

I dont think Oz can make any difference in that being just a small nation with sub ~26m population vs USA 300+Million and china almost 1.5 Billion pop. It will be a very eventful decade to come. Change of world order? Unfortunately we will always be supporting USA as there is a "debt" to be paid for their aid in WW2.

As for coal, I think i read usage has dropped 4% last year due to covid but has since had a big rebound in usage this year.

ENergy transition wont be that quick, there's a lot of infrastructure needs to be built and also mines/refineries started to produce stuff like uranium/natural gas/etc.. Even Solar u need heaps of silver/ EVs batteries need rare minerals. If production in any component mineral doesnt keep up, prices will skyrocket and slow down any transition.

And all the supposed EV targets, wheres all the energy gonna come from in next 5 years? takes quite a few years to put in those hydro/wind/solar farms and batteries. And when the wind dont blow or the sun dont shine in winter? What you gonna burn thats cheap and readily available? Uranium prices have doubled, LPG has tripled. COAL is the answer! COAL to heat homes and power EVs. China has been an example this year using coal to solve their power crunch/blackouts. And now Europes burning coal as renewables are not sufficient and they need to heat homes. Germany is on track to burn more coal this year than last year...

So yeah i reckon good days ahead for next 10 years at the very least for our coal miners.
 
bluekelah said:
for sure there will be some tussles between megapowers like China+Rus vs USA+allies, some of it will be political as well one side being communist and one side democratic.

I dont think Oz can make any difference in that being just a small nation with sub ~26m population vs USA 300+Million and china almost 1.5 Billion pop. It will be a very eventful decade to come. Change of world order? Unfortunately we will always be supporting USA as there is a "debt" to be paid for their aid in WW2.

As for coal, I think i read usage has dropped 4% last year due to covid but has since had a big rebound in usage this year.

ENergy transition wont be that quick, there's a lot of infrastructure needs to be built and also mines/refineries started to produce stuff like uranium/natural gas/etc.. Even Solar u need heaps of silver/ EVs batteries need rare minerals. If production in any component mineral doesnt keep up, prices will skyrocket and slow down any transition.

And all the supposed EV targets, wheres all the energy gonna come from in next 5 years? takes quite a few years to put in those hydro/wind/solar farms and batteries. And when the wind dont blow or the sun dont shine in winter? What you gonna burn thats cheap and readily available? Uranium prices have doubled, LPG has tripled. COAL is the answer! COAL to heat homes and power EVs. China has been an example this year using coal to solve their power crunch/blackouts. And now Europes burning coal as renewables are not sufficient and they need to heat homes. Germany is on track to burn more coal this year than last year...

So yeah i reckon good days ahead for next 10 years at the very least for our coal miners.
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well, @bluekelah I agree 100% with that last post of yours so we can also agree to agree;
[except for the part you mention our side as being democratic :)]
Let's all have a great xmas
 
This will be interesting to watch...


Indonesia miners seek solution as coal export ban rattles sector​


JAKARTA/CHENNAI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Indonesian coal miners want a quick resolution to a government coal export ban that has caused fuel prices to rise and could disrupt the energy supplies of some of the world's biggest economies.

The world's leading exporter of thermal coal on Saturday banned the shipments because of concerns it could not meet its own power demand, prompting President Joko Widodo on Monday to threaten to revoke business permits for any miners who failed to meet domestic market requirements....

www.reuters.com

Indonesia miners seek solution as coal export ban rattles sector

Indonesian coal miners want a quick resolution to a government coal export ban that has caused fuel prices to rise and could disrupt the energy supplies of some of the world's biggest economies.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
i hold ATM ( where the Government owns a stake in the company .. well last i read it did)

so i suppose the question is , power needs of the public , or power needs of the miners , blast furnaces , and other corporate entities ( because ATM uses it's mined coal to feed the gold refinery and ferro-nickel smelting )

but i suppose the Government means the big multi-nationals
 
divs4ever said:
i hold ATM ( where the Government owns a stake in the company .. well last i read it did)

so i suppose the question is , power needs of the public , or power needs of the miners , blast furnaces , and other corporate entities ( because ATM uses it's mined coal to feed the gold refinery and ferro-nickel smelting )

but i suppose the Government means the big multi-nationals
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I am not seeing any mention of Coal mining from ATM
en.wikipedia.org

Antam - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Saw an article this morning written by a Switzer guy on AZJ (I don't hold)

3. Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)​


Who would want to own companies heavily exposed to coal, such is the growing reallocation of capital away from fossil-fuel industries? Rail-operator Aurizon still makes most of its money transporting coal in Queensland and New South Wales.


Yes, coal-logistic companies have plenty of long-term challenges, particularly those that do not transition into other forms of freight (Aurizon is quickly growing its bulk-freight business). But every stock has its price and negative market sentiment can drive prices too low.


That is the case with Aurizon. A recovering global economy next year should underpin coal demand and possibly higher coal prices. Aurizon’s coal business might not be popular with Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investors, but rail is still vital for coal.


In October, Aurizon announced it will acquire One Rail Australia (ORA) for $2.35 billion as part of its diversification into bulk-rail haulage and freight. Aurizon committed to selling or demerging ORA’s coal-haulage business, amid competition concerns. The acquisition looks like a smart long-term move for Aurizon as it beefs up its bulk-freight business.


A consensus share price target of $3.71 for Aurizon (it’s $3.39 now) is too bearish. Morningstar’s fair value for Aurizon is $4.70. I’m not quite as bullish as Morningstar but see decent upside for Aurizon over the next few years.
 
eskys said:
A consensus share price target of $3.71 for Aurizon (it’s $3.39 now) is too bearish. Morningstar’s fair value for Aurizon is $4.70. I’m not quite as bullish as Morningstar but see decent upside for Aurizon over the next few years.
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I reckon this stock has a co-ordinated short happening, just looking at the chart, although I note that Vanguard sold its holdings but that is not to say they aren't back in, in a smaller way. Blackrock is still a major holder.
 
Not sure what's happening there, Ann. I don't trade or follow AZJ. It's one of 5 that was mentioned in the article I was reading this morning. The other 4 mentioned were QAN, QBE, VCX and CGF. I was trying to find out where to post but found an old thread on VCX going back to 2016 just then. Thought if I persist, I might find one more up to date, but now decided to drop it here.

By the way, this is what I found on Commsec's write up on AZJ, as follows...

AZJ appears to have completed a medium-term rally that took the 5-day moving average above the 50-day moving average and will likely continue its bearish trend. The 20-day moving average is downward sloping and appears set to continue the long-term bearish trend exhibited in the 200-day moving average.

View AZJ Charting
 
bluekelah said:
COAL to heat homes and power EVs.
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Agreed with the rest but I'll be very surprised if we see coal make a comeback as a domestic heating fuel in developed countries at least.

Urban air pollution is a very real downside, the amount of human labour required is another and it's expensive too given the cost of physically distributing the stuff. Consumers simply aren't keen on moving around a few tonners of the stuff each year, with their own manual labour, and getting themselves covered in dust while doing so. It's a last resort option for most, something you do only if you've got no alternative - homes in the US started to seriously move away from coal as a heat source as far back as the 1920's for example, given a choice consumers just didn't want it.

Coal-fired electricity on the other hand is a different matter. That heats homes just fine yes.

So coal demand is up yes, I just don't foresee anyone being keen to burn the stuff at home unless they're poor, have no choice or the few who just like it.
 
ATM

from the half yearly report ending June 2020


Entitas anak/ Domisili/ Jenis usaha/ Percentage of ownership commercial Total assets before elimination Subsidiaries Domicile Nature of business 2020 2019 operations 2020 2019 Kepemilikan langsung/Direct ownership:


2. PT Indonesia Coal Resources (“ICR”) Indonesia Perdagangan, transportasi dan jasa tambang batubara/ Coal mining trade, transportation and services 100.00% 100.00% 2010 44,474,171 28,122,883

14. PT Citra Tobindo Sukses Perkasa (“CTSP”) (melalui ICR/through ICR) Indonesia Eksplorasi dan operator tambang batubara/ Coal mining exploration and operator 100.00% 100.00% 2011 38,479,739 20,512,088

that exposure may have been divested since , or ignored as trivial compared to other arms of the business in recent times
 
Smurf1976 said:
Agreed with the rest but I'll be very surprised if we see coal make a comeback as a domestic heating fuel in developed countries at least.

Urban air pollution is a very real downside, the amount of human labour required is another and it's expensive too given the cost of physically distributing the stuff. Consumers simply aren't keen on moving around a few tonners of the stuff each year, with their own manual labour, and getting themselves covered in dust while doing so. It's a last resort option for most, something you do only if you've got no alternative - homes in the US started to seriously move away from coal as a heat source as far back as the 1920's for example, given a choice consumers just didn't want it.

Coal-fired electricity on the other hand is a different matter. That heats homes just fine yes.

So coal demand is up yes, I just don't foresee anyone being keen to burn the stuff at home unless they're poor, have no choice or the few who just like it.
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I assume it was meant: load the grid and heat the home via electric heater or heatpump at night
 
divs4ever said:
2. PT Indonesia Coal Resources (“ICR”) Indonesia Perdagangan, transportasi dan jasa tambang batubara/ Coal mining trade, transportation and services 100.00% 100.00% 2010 44,474,171 28,122,883
Click to expand...

It may be related to this buying and selling Coal Mining business permits....


AGO Detains One Corruption Suspect In Antam's Subsidiary​

JAKARTA - Investigators from the Attorney General's Office (Kejagung) have arrested one suspect in the alleged corruption case of buying and selling coal mining business permits (IUP) in Sarolangun Regency, Jambi by a subsidiary of PT Antam Tbk.

The detention of one suspect with the initials AT increased the number of suspects detained by the Attorney General's Office investigators. There are five people detained out of a total of 6 suspects

"The suspect AT is being held for the next 20 days at the Salemba Rutan at the South Jakarta District Attorney's Office," said the head of the AGO's Legal Information Center (Kapuspenkum) Leonard Eben Ezer Simanjuntak, quoted by Antara, Thursday, June 3.

The suspect AT was taken to the Salemba Rutan at the South Jakarta District Attorney's Office (Kejari), after undergoing a preliminary examination at the Junior Attorney General's Roundabout for Special Crimes at 17:46 WIB.

read more...
voi.id

AGO Detains One Corruption Suspect In Antam's Subsidiary

Investigators from the Attorney General's Office (Kejagung) have arrested one suspect in the alleged corruption case of buying and selling coal mining business permits (IUP) in Sarolangun Regency,
voi.id voi.id



Edit: Very hard to know of course when it is a foreign company just with an Aussie listing.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Agreed with the rest but I'll be very surprised if we see coal make a comeback as a domestic heating fuel in developed countries at least.

Urban air pollution is a very real downside, the amount of human labour required is another and it's expensive too given the cost of physically distributing the stuff. Consumers simply aren't keen on moving around a few tonners of the stuff each year, with their own manual labour, and getting themselves covered in dust while doing so. It's a last resort option for most, something you do only if you've got no alternative - homes in the US started to seriously move away from coal as a heat source as far back as the 1920's for example, given a choice consumers just didn't want it.

Coal-fired electricity on the other hand is a different matter. That heats homes just fine yes.

So coal demand is up yes, I just don't foresee anyone being keen to burn the stuff at home unless they're poor, have no choice or the few who just like it.
Click to expand...
yeah what i meant was coal being used more in power plants to make electricity for heating during this european winter in "green" countries like germany, etc...
 
Indonesia feeling the energy squeeze, it will reduce coal exports, to bolster local supplies to power stations.

www.abc.net.au

Could Australia win from Indonesia's shock suspension of coal exports?

A decision by the Indonesian government to suspend some thermal coal exports to guarantee domestic supply could have a flow-on effect for Australian miners locked out of the China market.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
sptrawler said:
Indonesia feeling the energy squeeze, it will reduce coal exports, to bolster local supplies to power stations.

www.abc.net.au

Could Australia win from Indonesia's shock suspension of coal exports?

A decision by the Indonesian government to suspend some thermal coal exports to guarantee domestic supply could have a flow-on effect for Australian miners locked out of the China market.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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If it works like other markets, Singapore or Lichtenstein will become our biggest export markets for thermal coal, and Singapore mines will become the biggest suppliers of coal imports to China ?
 
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