Chipping away

[Chipp]

The issue is accepting it as true and acting on it correctly are two quite distinct skill sets.

This why you need to decision tree to make that time to act mechanical . Know what to do well before it ever happens , Pre think it , deeply think it .

I am sure you have read thinking fast and slow Duc but for others out there its a must , not just for trading but life itself .

To master this type of trading you need to park your own pysche and react/measure the pysche of others . Be a machine

 

[divs4ever]

*** Humans are most predictable in times of high stress--they act instinctively and panic ***

an interesting assumption

instinct is VERY different to panic in my psyche , even standing still does not equate to 'frozen in fear '

 

[Chipp]

*** Humans are most predictable in times of high stress--they act instinctively and panic ***

an interesting assumption

instinct is VERY different to panic in my psyche , even standing still does not equate to 'frozen in fear '

Its no assumption . “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”

It's a rare person who can think lucidly in a critical way when pushed to the fight or flight highly emotional state , You may well have missed your calling @divs4ever . Maybe you could have been an elite daytrader a couple decades back , Scared to lose is scared to win , if you arent scared you open up the winning part but of course it's more than just a Tony Robbins positive mindset needed . Validated positive expectancy is the ultimate basis for a positive mindset when trading .

Trading is as simple as "Define the probabilities whilst managing the possibilities " Of course the process to get to this isnt that simple . Thats what makes it worth doing

 

[ducati916]

1. This why you need to decision tree to make that time to act mechanical . 1(a). Know what to do well before it ever happens , Pre think it , deeply think it .

2. I am sure you have read thinking fast and slow Duc but for others out there its a must , not just for trading but life itself .

3. To master this type of trading you need to park your own pysche and react/measure the pysche of others . Be a machine

1. Agreed it needs to be mechanical. This is where 1(a) is actually the most important component. To be able to execute on a mechanical basis, you are still subject to the laws of human emotions and fallibility...you need to be out in front of bad stuff (non-linear outcomes) so that your execution is actually profit taking and setting up for the next profit taking outcome.

2. Yes I have. For a far more detailed and mathematical treatment, try: "The Essential Tversky" Probably right up your alley.

3. Which refers back to point 1(a). This is 'holy grail' type of trading and almost guarantees that you cannot lose money.

Can it be done?

Of course. Refer back to the clues provided in the reviews of Mr Simons' methodologies. They actually provide very good starting points. There are probably many different methods by which to do this, it's just a matter of finding one that sits comfortably with each individual.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

This why you need to decision tree to make that time to act mechanical . Know what to do well before it ever happens , Pre think it , deeply think it .

I am sure you have read thinking fast and slow Duc but for others out there its a must , not just for trading but life itself .

To master this type of trading you need to park your own pysche and react/measure the pysche of others . Be a machine

I am the machine

For entertainment only. Fully agree on the idea so my preference for systems that i can follow and in a lesser degree preset SL and profit taking, harder to handle when gapping

 

[divs4ever]

well i worked out within hours , my set up wasn't nimble enough to trade ( even if i placed orders 'at market price ' , sure they got filled but not close to target price and THAT eats profit margins )


so unlike many .. if all i have is a hammer , i go look for some nails to hit ( not hit everything hoping some will be nails )

now sure i have some crude but simple plays , but they don't happen often enough to provide a living wage/salary ( but they work inside my setup )

now it might not be elegant , or have me swimming in profits , but it reduces bad outcomes at the downside of having to wait for that'target price' ( sometimes years )

.. and i play ( mostly ) small so rarely move the market ( unless my target is so illiquid , that i am the market .. that is only buyer or seller )

but these guys are pros ( either feeding the family with trading wins , or paid to win money for others ) i can take my time and wait ( or move on )

 

[ducati916]

well i worked out within hours , my set up wasn't nimble enough to trade ( even if i placed orders 'at market price ' , sure they got filled but not close to target price and THAT eats profit margins )


so unlike many .. if all i have is a hammer , i go look for some nails to hit ( not hit everything hoping some will be nails )

now sure i have some crude but simple plays , but they don't happen often enough to provide a living wage/salary ( but they work inside my setup )

now it might not be elegant , or have me swimming in profits , but it reduces bad outcomes at the downside of having to wait for that'target price' ( sometimes years )

.. and i play ( mostly ) small so rarely move the market ( unless my target is so illiquid , that i am the market .. that is only buyer or seller )

but these guys are pros ( either feeding the family with trading wins , or paid to win money for others ) i can take my time and wait ( or move on )

Mr Divs,

No issue with the above.

The issue is that to really make the returns, you need to be able to leverage massively.

You can only leverage IF you are not going to lose (i) often or (ii) big.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Mr Divs,

No issue with the above.

The issue is that to really make the returns, you need to be able to leverage massively.

You can only leverage IF you are not going to lose (i) often or (ii) big.

jog on
duc

i avoid leverage , and only rarely use leveraged products ( like BBOZ and BBUS )

i play small , so usually only cut tiny cuts ( not lose a hand or arm )

i also follow the adage that ' History sure does rhyme ' ( not repeat )

but of course big wins normally require BIG bucks and big risks , and i am happy to WATCH others play there

 

[qldfrog]

Sheesh
Talk about feeling inadequate in this game
Back to colouring in for me

Yeap humbled

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Here is a brief summary of what's in the book:
it seems that they have not done so.

(11) What is the most secret juice with their models? Medallion found itself making its largest profits during times of extreme turbulence in financial markets. They believed investors are prone to cognitive biases, the kinds that lead to panics, bubbles, booms, and busts. "We make money from reactions people have to price moves." They look for smaller, short-term opportunities-get in and get out. The gains on each trade were never huge, and the fund only got it right a bit more than half the time, but that was more than enough. "We are right 50.75 percent of the time... but we're 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time," Mercer told a friend. "You can make billions that way."

(12) &

today's takeout , with large drop for Nvidia & on Nasdaq .... pt 11

"(11) What is the most secret juice with their models? Medallion found itself making its largest profits during times of extreme turbulence in financial markets. They believed investors are prone to cognitive biases, the kinds that lead to panics, bubbles, booms, and busts. "We make money from reactions people have to price moves." They look for smaller, short-term opportunities-get in and get out. The gains on each trade were never huge, and the fund only got it right a bit more than half the time, but that was more than enough. "We are right 50.75 percent of the time... but we're 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time," Mercer told a friend. "You can make billions that way."

 

[qldfrog]

today's takeout , with large drop for Nvidia & on Nasdaq .... pt 11

"(11) What is the most secret juice with their models? Medallion found itself making its largest profits during times of extreme turbulence in financial markets. They believed investors are prone to cognitive biases, the kinds that lead to panics, bubbles, booms, and busts. "We make money from reactions people have to price moves." They look for smaller, short-term opportunities-get in and get out. The gains on each trade were never huge, and the fund only got it right a bit more than half the time, but that was more than enough. "We are right 50.75 percent of the time... but we're 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time," Mercer told a friend. "You can make billions that way."

Indeed, volatility is good for trading.but you need to have time for that
I offloaded a lot last week..will see early next month if it was wise

 

[frugal.rock]