Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
I wouldn't be surprised if we just seen the high for a few days
Chinese currency pegged to USD
- Thread starter Timmy
- Start date
- Joined
- 9 April 2010
- Posts
- 174
- Reactions
- 3
just when the DOW is in topping formation and maybe ready to sell off and then...BANG! out the good news!.....
Chinese Central Bank to Tim Geithner: "OK Timmy, we'll loosen the Yuan just to make you happy...when do you want the announcement?"
Tim Geithner: "That's great...could you make the announcement this weekend, I'll just alert my buddies from Goldman Sachs...."
Chinese Central Bank to Tim Geithner: "OK Timmy, we'll loosen the Yuan just to make you happy...when do you want the announcement?"
Tim Geithner: "That's great...could you make the announcement this weekend, I'll just alert my buddies from Goldman Sachs...."
skc
Goldmember
- Joined
- 12 August 2008
- Posts
- 8,277
- Reactions
- 329
Yeh, saw the potential for that, but didn't think it would be so swift!
Do you may be mean run down?
If Fib ratios are ever to be credible tools, the current levels for ASX and HK markets are just perfect for a top.
The positive thoughts are that Chinese internal consumer demand will rise as a result of the re valuation upwards... but I think that effect will be more medium term than immediate.
- Joined
- 6 January 2009
- Posts
- 2,300
- Reactions
- 1,130
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/steady-yuan-surprises-markets/story-e6frg90x-1225882329000
No rise this time, chinese whispers.
Cheers
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
Clearly the trillions of dollars that have flow into markets since then, 11:30 am, consider todays peg not the news. Its all about the future settings.
Timmy
white swans need love too
- Joined
- 30 September 2007
- Posts
- 3,457
- Reactions
- 3
inscrutable
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 6,637
- Reactions
- 7
Still confident on this call TH? Its looking pretty 50/50 as to what way from here imo
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Sorry yes, down.
The really big thing now is whether the response out of the US tonight is positive. If they still don't find this move acceptable, no doubt Congress will still want to push forward with their protectionist bill, and the only thing stopping it then is an Obama veto of the bill based on Geithner in his ear chirping. Will Obama do this and how will it be viewed by his American audience? Lot to be answered still, cautious stepping until then I think, definately no leverage on this one for me.........
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
nope!Gaps up on Mondays have a poor records of holding. Europe trading after the decent first pull back will be a good tell. But on a level that china comes out and says
"OK guys were are clearly having trouble controlling inflation and growth seems to not be the problem we are lifting the currency"
If the market takes that line then shorts watch out, risk trade is back on, swing away.
Timmy
white swans need love too
- Joined
- 30 September 2007
- Posts
- 3,457
- Reactions
- 3
Article here is a reasonable summary of the perceptions re this announcement:
naked capitalism http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/is-chinas-renminbi-announcement-mainly-optics.html
Also, timing of this, ahead of the G20 meeting, is helpful for the Chinese and US officials (mentioned in article too).
Plenty of grist for the mill.
naked capitalism http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/is-chinas-renminbi-announcement-mainly-optics.html
Also, timing of this, ahead of the G20 meeting, is helpful for the Chinese and US officials (mentioned in article too).
Plenty of grist for the mill.
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
Problem is the Europeans, both Mirkel and Trichet, aren't in the US boat of stimulating growth with fiscal expansion! Sure to cause some rumblings at the 20.
Not to mention, China didn't actually raise the Yuan, imagine there will definately be more noises out of congress about this!
Not to mention, China didn't actually raise the Yuan, imagine there will definately be more noises out of congress about this!
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 6,637
- Reactions
- 7
From Reuters about 15 min ago:
Sure did a few of my clients over who booked in rates this morning
Sure did a few of my clients over who booked in rates this morning
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
Sure did a few of my clients over who booked in rates this morning
i was expecting that move at 11:00 .............. had given up on the trade when it played out 20 mins later .... :homer:
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
interestingly its killing the EURO.. New low..... How do ya play this game........ ......
...... - Joined
- 10 July 2004
- Posts
- 2,913
- Reactions
- 3
interestingly its killing the EURO.. New low..... How do ya play this game........
I suspect if you are a Chinese multi-billionaire with deep enough Forex pockets, you can set gameplay on the run and kick winning goals at will.
A fun game indeed!
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 6,637
- Reactions
- 7
Why were you expecting it TH?
Is it going to be a daily announcement or just when they feel like screwing the markets over?
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 205
Why were you expecting it TH?
Is it going to be a daily announcement or just when they feel like screwing the markets over?
Each day at 11:00 am our time they set the daily range that the Yuan is allowed to move in. They didn't adjust it yesterday which knocked the market around a bit but was no real surprise. I was expecting a reaction to the rate today, whether it was up or flat the market was always going to kick. My thinking was it would be up in line with their weekend announcement, a bit of a catch up, I was right but will have to look into the time its announce. I may have that wrong.
Expect 11:00 -11:30 time slot to be hot in the markets for a little while yet
- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
interestingly its killing the EURO.. New low..... How do ya play this game........
Yeh, interesting they said though the CNY will rise appropriately against the USD, but dependent on the EUR.
So if EUR continues to fall, they are basically saying, they won't be letting USD/CNY fall...........
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 6,637
- Reactions
- 7
Looks like you were bang on with this TH. Freak
:You can let me know info like that anytime you want, my clients love it
The reason for the depeg is simple enough: during the recent decline in the Euro the Chinese insistence on a hard peg caused the SSEC to be ground up against the wall as the CNY rose with the USD against the EUR. In case you weren't watching, Chinas biggest export destination is now Europe
http://investmentwatchblog.com/euro...ng-up-20-percent-of-its-total-overseas-sales/
So a 10+% currency move is sure to effect equities, just like ASX:GOLD went parabolic for a little while in '08 due to AUD volatility.
By widening the trading band they are essentially providing room for the CNY to move a maximum of 2.5% in a straight line every week or a roughly 130% straight line every year.
Now the next time Euro plunges against the USD and CHF the Chinese can easily step in to stop their equities market getting ground against the peg. With Japanese exporters selling the USD during Tokyo hours every single day now as they can't seem to catch a break on the overnight fix or even the weekly fix that fits with their supply chain models
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/10366102.stm
and combined with BoK USDKRW intervention occurring during similar hours as well as the normal diversification of USD by PBoC occuring during Hong Kong hours I think they have just made official some policy they were acting out through back channels previously (like buying the EUR during Tokyo hours).
Good luck to them. Mish has always said the Chinese let their currency float it will go down not up. My father is a macroeconomics professor and the last paper he wrote on the issue was that the CNY is undervalued. I am probably siding with Mish on this one. Who wants to bet we come back in a year to find the USDCNY ~100% up from Mondays price?
http://investmentwatchblog.com/euro...ng-up-20-percent-of-its-total-overseas-sales/
So a 10+% currency move is sure to effect equities, just like ASX:GOLD went parabolic for a little while in '08 due to AUD volatility.
By widening the trading band they are essentially providing room for the CNY to move a maximum of 2.5% in a straight line every week or a roughly 130% straight line every year.
Now the next time Euro plunges against the USD and CHF the Chinese can easily step in to stop their equities market getting ground against the peg. With Japanese exporters selling the USD during Tokyo hours every single day now as they can't seem to catch a break on the overnight fix or even the weekly fix that fits with their supply chain models
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/10366102.stm
and combined with BoK USDKRW intervention occurring during similar hours as well as the normal diversification of USD by PBoC occuring during Hong Kong hours I think they have just made official some policy they were acting out through back channels previously (like buying the EUR during Tokyo hours).
Good luck to them. Mish has always said the Chinese let their currency float it will go down not up. My father is a macroeconomics professor and the last paper he wrote on the issue was that the CNY is undervalued. I am probably siding with Mish on this one. Who wants to bet we come back in a year to find the USDCNY ~100% up from Mondays price?
Similar threads
