China's Economy

[sinner]

That depends Sinner, if the valuations of other indices around the world are fair value or over valued, it is all relative.

Cheero

I think you will find that regardless of whether the average country index is over or undervalued, you will find that over time both undervalued and overvalued indices will converge towards the average.

 

[sydboy007]

Well worth a read. I find Pettis to be easy reading

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/09/if-...f-chinas-balance-sheet-we-understand-neither/

 

[orr]

This link is to the China Daily announcing the lay off in the next three months of 100,000 coal workers from Chinas largest coal miner. Keep in mind Aust total direct coal employees approx 40,000, for the US sub 80,000 heading to 70, total; hardly apples v apples 'but'... And China is heading into winter, their all used to just putting on another jumper.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/26/content_21987803.htm

 

[sptrawler]

This link is to the China Daily announcing the lay off in the next three months of 100,000 coal workers from Chinas largest coal miner. Keep in mind Aust total direct coal employees approx 40,000, for the US sub 80,000 heading to 70, total; hardly apples v apples 'but'... And China is heading into winter, their all used to just putting on another jumper.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/26/content_21987803.htm

China has made a step move, to reduce support for SOE, this is to try and increase efficiencies.

The idea, is to slowly withdraw the bottomless pit of money, propping up inefficient State Owned Enterprises.

Apparently with the mass industrialisation, managers weren't really required to improve work practices or modernise proceedures and equipment.

The Government, is moving on to the next stage, competition to drive modernisation. Well that's my understanding of it.

 

[orr]

improve work practices or modernise proceedures and equipment.

The Government, is moving on to the next stage, competition to drive modernisation. Well that's my understanding of it.

Undoubtably that's one take on it...
When i'm looking at the tea leaves watching Xi Jinping tripping off to the US announcing an emissions trading scheme, the Paris meeting coming, up and discussing who knows what else, knowing the PRC leaders are by a majority trained engineers and every engineer knows that if you put more heat into something than gets out it gets hotter. And in the time it's taken you to read this the planet has accumulated about three Hiroshima bombs worth of heat. And Shanghai, a city of thirty-million people sits on average about five metres above sea level. Just how many of Chinas coal fired plants are designed to be retrofitted for nuclear? Again looking at the tea leaves; Chinas build of a forth generation nuclear reactor and matching that with your mention of 'modernisation of procedures'.
At this point I have trouble shaking the belief that there's not Gov planning in, at least, this aspect of modernisation.

 

[sptrawler]

Undoubtably that's one take on it...
When i'm looking at the tea leaves watching Xi Jinping tripping off to the US announcing an emissions trading scheme, the Paris meeting coming, up and discussing who knows what else, knowing the PRC leaders are by a majority trained engineers and every engineer knows that if you put more heat into something than gets out it gets hotter. And in the time it's taken you to read this the planet has accumulated about three Hiroshima bombs worth of heat. And Shanghai, a city of thirty-million people sits on average about five metres above sea level. Just how many of Chinas coal fired plants are designed to be retrofitted for nuclear? Again looking at the tea leaves; Chinas build of a forth generation nuclear reactor and matching that with your mention of 'modernisation of procedures'.
At this point I have trouble shaking the belief that there's not Gov planning in, at least, this aspect of modernisation.

The one thing you know with China, there is Government planning in every aspect, absolutely every aspect.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I bet no one saw this coming. Unbelievable move by China to withdraw the extradition bill. I'm guessing they will continue to hunt down those who speak out against communism and kidnap/imprison them illegally. And threaten their families with same, as they have done in the past. They know that no one will ever challenge them except Trump, and even he is powerless against such clandestine moves on their own territory.

For the moment... bullish. Hang Seng up 3.9%.

 

[nulla nulla]

Just be careful what you say about Gladys Liu. Even Prime Minister Morrison is toeing the party line. Not sure which party though. Oops gotta go, someone's at the door.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Has anyone here heard of Guo Wengui? He makes some rather extraordinary claims about China and their economy. Just wondering if people here think there's any truth to it?

 

[Knobby22]

Excellent analytical article below. The penny has finally dropped for this government. Being the USA's deputy and lecturing the Chinese on behaviour when they are a new main power is dumb, dumb, dumb.

Their attitude is that we need to treat them with respect....and fear.

We are now in a poor position due to some very average decisions.

In my view, the Western nations and South East Asian nations needs to act as one. This means working together with the UN and maximum diplomacy.

Morrison and his top diplomat have sketched out Australia's future.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-29/morrisons-vision-australia-changing-the-order-china/12926904

 

[SyBoo]

China's $2b coal deal with Indonesia may hit Australia, East Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

China blocked Australian coal because it “failed to meet environmental standards”, and yet at the same time there prepared to let more Indonesian coal (a lower quality coal) through their ports.

Wait! The penny just dropped for me.

 

[sptrawler]

Excellent analytical article below. The penny has finally dropped for this government. Being the USA's deputy and lecturing the Chinese on behaviour when they are a new main power is dumb, dumb, dumb.

Their attitude is that we need to treat them with respect....and fear.

We are now in a poor position due to some very average decisions.

In my view, the Western nations and South East Asian nations needs to act as one. This means working together with the UN and maximum diplomacy.

Morrison and his top diplomat have sketched out Australia's future.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-29/morrisons-vision-australia-changing-the-order-china/12926904

Great article I think the comment Abbott made nailed it for Australia.
Our strategy has been caught between what former prime minister Tony Abbott once described as a mixture of "fear and greed.

That has and still is holding both of our political parties by the throat, we need China's money, but we don't want them to own us and change the Australian way.
Well it is very hard to have your cake and eat it, they should have thought about this in the 1970's and 80's, when they went down this track.

 

[againsthegrain]

China's $2b coal deal with Indonesia may hit Australia, East Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

China blocked Australian coal because it “failed to meet environmental standards”, and yet at the same time there prepared to let more Indonesian coal (a lower quality coal) through their ports.

Wait! The penny just dropped for me.

China has environmental standards, what a joke

 

[Knobby22]

I have reopened this thread as it doesn't have an emotive heading and I really just want to look at this from an economic framework.

The USA will hit China hard during the next few years. The USA will act in concert with other powers to damage China if it steps too much out of line. The removal of the unilateralist trade approach that has failed so miserably will lead to a collective hardening of resolve in the USA and hopefully from the West. The new trade leader is smart, speaks Chinese and she has been successful previously by using smart collective actions with like minded countries.

However, there are powerful interests from Apple down that have much to lose if China is limited in manufacturing and many startups rely on Chinese money.

We are at a juncture and I am unsure which way the wave will break.

 

[qldfrog]

Add the fact the Reset taking place is an economic no future zone leading to potentially a quick economic disaster.
was called communism in different time: State control of theeconomy, same outcome regardless of effort/abilities etc

So where will the funding come? if not from China? I so believe Bidden will be China's best friend as he will need the cash.
we will see renewed anti russian (the US liberal hate mongering) in the US, while China will be conveniently forgotten.
We always need one enemy, usually a weak one.
So China uberall withing 5y however bad their demographics are, it will be done faster ...
And worse, aging will be a good reason for the CCP to push ahead as fast as possible.
Ultimately, China number one, enslaved big tech to the eir master, west populace subservient to the new masters swapping historic monuments, farms, lands and assets ,gold and family jewelry against cheap yuan funding of deficits, universal incomes and $2 gadgets.
We will quickly see how right or wrong I am with the democrats attitude against China, 6 months on and we will know

 

[rederob]

I have reopened this thread as it doesn't have an emotive heading and I really just want to look at this from an economic framework.

The USA will hit China hard during the next few years. The USA will act in concert with other powers to damage China if it steps too much out of line. The removal of the unilateralist trade approach that has failed so miserably will lead to a collective hardening of resolve in the USA and hopefully from the West. The new trade leader is smart, speaks Chinese and she has been successful previously by using smart collective actions with like minded countries.

However, there are powerful interests from Apple down that have much to lose if China is limited in manufacturing and many startups rely on Chinese money.

We are at a juncture and I am unsure which way the wave will break.

Aside from China's semiconductor chip making capacity which lags Western nations by at least a decade, China is unlikely to be significantly damaged by the West's attempts to "isolate" it.
China's Belt & Road initiative is providing it with a means for all its future raw materials needs, while at the same time establishing new trading partners, mostly in the developing world. The West seems oblivious to the B&R model's strength, which places ownership of Chinese sponsored infrastructure projects in the hands of the nation itself, rather than in the hands of off-shore corporations, which is the capitalist model.
The maths is simple: excluding the West and India, China has a market potential of over 4 billion.
KPMG sees key national economic changes to 2050 such that:

With misguided support from the USA, Australia has been poking the bear for a number of years, and is now pretending it did nothing wrong: In the inimitable words of Trump, "it's China."
Not that our media would ever tell you, but Australia's comments regarding Hong Kong's National Security laws represent direct meddling in another nation's sovereignty.
China is as perfect as the USA, or Australia, except it is not a democracy.
If we cannot get our heads around what China is, and why, then the juggernaut that insulated Australia from the worst effects of the GFC can just as easily throw even bigger spanners into our resource projects.
It's galling for us to think our government has no idea at all about how to resolve the many impasses we are reading about in the media.
Have we have elected officials who are incompetent on China matters, unless we are agreeing with America?

 

[sptrawler]

Yes as one of our P.M's said, you have to watch China, or they will Rat f#@ck you, our history with China is indeed colourful.
To say the least.
It will take some very careful back filling, to repair our relationship and some long term planning to reduce our dependence.
We got ourselves into this position, by outsourcing our manufacturing to cheap labour countries, it will take a lot of clever manoeuvring, to reverse or even stall the trend.

 

[Austwide]

I watched a TV shown on a company relocating to China.
The company said wages were not the driver (believe or not) but the availability of parts at their finger tips.

 

[rederob]

2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China.
It remains one of the few nations to continue with formalised nation-building plans, with it's 14th 5-year plan to come into play this March.
Introducing the new year, Xi Jinping's speech was relatively subdued given covid-19's lingering impacts.
Nevertheless, economic indicators suggest China will have grown by about 2% last year and could experience up to 9% growth in 2021.
An important outcome of China's rebound is the likelihood that China will supplant the USA as the world's largest economy before the end of this decade, according to CEBR's WELT.
Some 30 years ago Paul Keating understood that Australia's future was going to be significantly tied to developments in Asia, while today it appears our government could do with some Economics 101 and a map of the world.

 

[sptrawler]

I watched a TV shown on a company relocating to China.
The company said wages were not the driver (believe or not) but the availability of parts at their finger tips.

That may well be the case, now. I'm sure it wasn't the main driver in the 1980's and 1990's when companies were relocating.