Chances of a run on the banks?

[wayneL]

HBOS in the UK is having to defend itself against rumours that it is in deep doodoo. HBOS owns Bankwest.

Just a heads-up folks.

 

[Mofra]

HBOS in the UK is having to defend itself against rumours that it is in deep doodoo. HBOS owns Bankwest.

Just a heads-up folks.

For another indicator of real market risk in Australia, the securitisation table is a reasonably accurate tool - with AUD$22b+ Macq. bank was no 1 - now they have killed of their mortgage origination for new deals due to funding issues.

St George & Adelaide Bank are fairly high on that table, so you can guess what I said last week when I was offered a role at St George

 

[Prospector]

Hey P!
I'm a (new) PS.. and my super, which I transferred just 12 months ago, is definitely going the gurgler way.. Not sure what you mean?? Have I missed something..??

Cheers,

Buster

In SA, public servants are guaranteed a certain percentage of the salary (or an amount less tax) as a retirement income. Any super you may have transferred prior to joining may be treated differently though!

 

[reece55]

For another indicator of real market risk in Australia, the securitisation table is a reasonably accurate tool - with AUD$22b+ Macq. bank was no 1 - now they have killed of their mortgage origination for new deals due to funding issues.

St George & Adelaide Bank are fairly high on that table, so you can guess what I said last week when I was offered a role at St George

Funny you say that Mofra, I had a few mates in ADB's securitisation department, looks like they have downscaled their staff or are at least adjusting. One of them has been moved into money markets and the other is leaving......

Also, looking through Bendigo's latest half yearly report, a very large proportion of their funding for their securitisation assets that were previously funded by either term or sales are now warehoused (say 50% now and they have about a 14 Bil book).... it must be costing them a lot more now....

Cheers

 

[Prospector]

Funny you say that Mofra, I had a few mates in ADB's securitisation department, looks like they have downscaled their staff or are at least adjusting. One of them has been moved into money markets and the other is leaving......

Wouldnt you expect that to happen when two companies merge? Duplication and all that?

 

[Mofra]

Funny you say that Mofra, I had a few mates in ADB's securitisation department, looks like they have downscaled their staff or are at least adjusting. One of them has been moved into money markets and the other is leaving......

Also, looking through Bendigo's latest half yearly report, a very large proportion of their funding for their securitisation assets that were previously funded by either term or sales are now warehoused (say 50% now and they have about a 14 Bil book).... it must be costing them a lot more now....

Cheers

reece - your mates would be telling you exactly how it is, as I know people in treasuries who are absolutely gobsmacked at the current situation even taking into account the subprime crisis.

The problem isn't just the longer term warehousing of the debt - it's the fact that now the warehouses themselves are falling over. CBA had even offered to warehouse A1 prime debt within Australia & have now pulled the plug as you just can't shift the debt anywhere at the moment. The Societe Generale meltdown has hit harder than many expect - US CDO/MBS's are dead enough without currency risk entering the fray (is "deader" a word?

 

[reece55]

Wouldnt you expect that to happen when two companies merge? Duplication and all that?

BEN didn't have any securitisation expertise, so no I didn't actually expect that at all........ Any movement in staff and/or downsizing would indicate to me a reduction in activity, not merger issues. Proof in the pudding is the funding mix in 2007 compared with 2006......

Cheers

 

[vishalt]

God **** America.

Everything has to be gunned down because America said so, and because we have typical westerner hive minds we have the same ill-disciplined companies (if anything they have been LUCKY to avoid sub-prime) and debt levels as addictive.

But hey when the US says its time to sour on them the world needs to follow!

 

[Prospector]

BEN didn't have any securitisation expertise, so no I didn't actually expect that at all........ Any movement in staff and/or downsizing would indicate to me a reduction in activity, not merger issues. Proof in the pudding is the funding mix in 2007 compared with 2006......

Cheers

Ok, so that would be a good thing for the BenAd Bank to do then, and not necessarily an indication of imminent danger (need to have a smiley for praying!)

God **** America.

No need for God's help, they are most able to do it to themselves.

 

[wayneL]

HBOS in the UK is having to defend itself against rumours that it is in deep doodoo. HBOS owns Bankwest.

Just a heads-up folks.

OK, the latest rumour is that the HBOS rumour was just a rumour. The bank is now rumoured to be OK. :

 

[reece55]

Ok, so that would be a good thing for the BenAd Bank to do then, and not necessarily an indication of imminent danger (need to have a smiley for praying!)



No need for God's help, they are most able to do it to themselves.

Read what Mofra is saying about warehousing and review the BEN share price chart - the answer lies in both. I highly doubt that an Australian bank would go under, but 14 Bil is a lot of debt to fund if you can't even warehouse it!!!!!

Cheers

 

[reece55]

OK, the latest rumour is that the HBOS rumour was just a rumour. The bank is now rumoured to be OK. :

Ha.... There is still a few hours before close, down 8% so far after dropping through the 400 mark....... ouch..... Perhaps another flip flop before close? By the way, tonights blip is a new 5 year low...... owie.....

Cheers

 

[Kimosabi]

Well, if there is a bank run in Australia, you'd want to get in quick. That skinny little line down the bottom of the graph is physical cash...

 

[chops_a_must]

Credit Unions will be safe too. This happened in SA and the state government stepped in.

Actually, what peeves me at the moment is that those of us who are not public servants, can see our Super Fund monies disappearing. So we are not guaranteed any final settlement amount (unless it has already been converted to cash of course). But in SA the Govt has said that it has lost, I think he said over a billion dollars since the recent fall, but every Public Servant knows exactly what they will receive on retirement as it is guaranteed. And it isnt as though they have meager salaries, nor are subject to redundancy issues like us mere mortals!

Yeah, I reckon that is bollocks.

The WA public servants were recently, not so overtly made aware that their super funds were heavily exposed to CNP.

A reason why they are now asking a hell of a lot more than they were a few months back? You betcha...

P.S. - I'd argue most public servants are paid between about 50-75% of their market value.

Cheers.

 

[nioka]

P.S. - I'd argue most public servants are paid between about 50-75% of their market value.

Cheers.

Maybe that is because it matches their work rate.

 

[chops_a_must]

Maybe that is because it matches their work rate.

I know quote a few and they all work damn hard.

You generally aren't there if you don't care about what you are doing. Especially at the moment where key departments are so short staffed it really isn't funny...

 

[Prospector]

Yeah, I reckon that is bollocks.
The WA public servants were recently, not so overtly made aware that their super funds were heavily exposed to CNP.

Well, maybe you need to check out what is happening in SA and not WA then, as I said in the post. The risk is held by SA taxpayers and not the superannuants. Bollocks.

 

[chops_a_must]

Well, maybe you need to check out what is happening in SA and not WA then, as I said in the post. The risk is held by SA taxpayers and not the superannuants. Bollocks.

Sorry.

From the way you wrote it, or the way I read it, sounded like it was being extrapolated to all public servants Australia wide.

I must have read 1500 pages in the last week... so I'm getting short.

I apologise if that's not how it was intended.

P.S. - Do you think SA would have any hope of getting people/ keeping people with the correct qualifications in the public service unless they had carrots like that?