CBH - CBH Resources

[dubiousinfo]

YT
After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
Will they keep them or will they be sold off?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT
After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
Will they keep them or will they be sold off?

:dunno:

 

[dubiousinfo]

CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.

During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.

As as rough guess at some numbers for the 06/07 year, using metal prices of $3,300/t zinc, $1100/t lead & $11/oz silver, they are looking at revenue of around $227m. Allowing for an increase of 20% for costs to $157m, they are looking at a profit of $70m for the year.

Using 800,000 as shares on issue & a sp of 45c, the profit would be 8.7c/shr & a PE of 5.2.

Throw in Triako & the new mines to be brought on line in coming years & some blue sky for the exploration tenements & the company looks good for the medium term.

 

[rwkni1]

Looks like triako has gone through.

 

[Sean K]

CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.

During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.

As as rough guess at some numbers for the 06/07 year, using metal prices of $3,300/t zinc, $1100/t lead & $11/oz silver, they are looking at revenue of around $227m. Allowing for an increase of 20% for costs to $157m, they are looking at a profit of $70m for the year.

Using 800,000 as shares on issue & a sp of 45c, the profit would be 8.7c/shr & a PE of 5.2.

Throw in Triako & the new mines to be brought on line in coming years & some blue sky for the exploration tenements & the company looks good for the medium term.

Thanks Dubious, Looks to be still on 1 year upward trend and if your figures are correct, then it looks undervalued atm. Corrected with everything else last week. I might pick up some more if it's sold off much more. Say $0.38 levels, around trend line and 200d ma.

 

[dubiousinfo]

Kennas,

CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done)

So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:

Don't get me wrong, stock could go to 60c, but it could also continue to try and get there hovering around 49-51c level and fall back to 42c,

Over the next month 1 thing is for sure, there will be alot of TKR sellers,

TKR shareholders will get their stock once T/O goes through, should be mid Sept, so add 2 weeks, maybe early Oct

I'm just warning you all that I know brokers who act for some large TKR shareholders who have said that once they get CBH script they will sell!,
I'm not saying all will sell, but alot of them will.

Regards

 

[Sean K]

Kennas,

CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done)

So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:

Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower.... Or, think long term.....

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower.... Or, think long term.....

Kennas,

39c would seem safe,

Support as I predicted was found at 41-42c, thats why at 50c it was too good an opportunity not to sell,

Long term this is probably one of the lowest trading PER stocks around so you'll do well either way

 

[dj_420]

my avg is for 38 cents. i suppose the downside is that TKR shareholders dump all their stock after the t/o clears.

the results of that would mean we can pick up more CBH for cheap. and i dont think the TKR shareholders would want to force the sp down to much as it will affect their profits anyway.

i see this as a long term hold so i will just hold and wait and see. i see them as a great zinc producer who will benefit through the next two years, following a deficit in zinc stocks.

the advantage is that the TKR t/o issue is now resolved and CBH just have to get full production back online to make for more positive ann. so the t/o that was dragged out is now resolved. i think after TKR shareholders do what they want to do and an ann for full production will help sp greatly

 

[michael_selway]

Kennas,

39c would seem safe,

Support as I predicted was found at 41-42c, thats why at 50c it was too good an opportunity not to sell,

Long term this is probably one of the lowest trading PER stocks around so you'll do well either way

Hey check this out

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -2.8 13.1 19.5 4.6
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 --

Well if u look at forward terminal PE of 10, its 46c!

But im bullish on Zinc running out, so things can be crazy then

thx

MS

 

[Sean K]

Hey check this out

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -2.8 13.1 19.5 4.6
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 --

Well if u look at forward terminal PE of 10, its 46c!

But im bullish on Zinc running out, so things can be crazy then

thx

MS

Good work on 1000 posts MS!

Hey, I like your quote 'bullish on zinc running out'. LOL.

Like, clean out? None left at all?

 

[dj_420]

im very bullish about zinc and uranium.

zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.

i agree with YT that TKR shareholders could dump all their stock very quickly, BUT sp showed huge amount of support this morning following ann that takeoverwas finally tied up and sealed. look at support levels from 40c upwards. it seems market sentiment may be positive for CBH again. i agree that the takeover did drag out considerably BUT now that is all settled.

im holding long term for this one, or at least until we see a zinc bubble next year. BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)

25 000 tonnes per month decreasing, so 6 months give or take some tonnage ins from new orleans?? or considerable slowdown following last 50 000 tonnes

if TKR shareholders dump then i will be waiting to pick up some cheap shares along with other CBH supporters.

 

[nizar]

BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)

Have a look at what is happening to nickel right now, and that may give u some idea of what will happen to zinc in 6 or so months

ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.

AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins...

WHats the perfect time to take over a company?
I dont really know, but i know its NOT when u are barely profitable, now there will be close to 800m shares and a traders fantasy and it will become like EXT, the sell side always stacked...

I find myself always making excuses as to why this stock is not performing. Once a dog, always a dog?

 

[specman]

im very bullish about zinc and uranium.

zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.

i agree with YT that TKR shareholders could dump all their stock very quickly, BUT sp showed huge amount of support this morning following ann that takeoverwas finally tied up and sealed. look at support levels from 40c upwards. it seems market sentiment may be positive for CBH again. i agree that the takeover did drag out considerably BUT now that is all settled.

im holding long term for this one, or at least until we see a zinc bubble next year. BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)

25 000 tonnes per month decreasing, so 6 months give or take some tonnage ins from new orleans?? or considerable slowdown following last 50 000 tonnes

if TKR shareholders dump then i will be waiting to pick up some cheap shares along with other CBH supporters.

I'm liking zinc as well.The rate of decline in LME inventory seems to have accelerated in the past 30 days.No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.

 

[nizar]

No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.

Just in time for the next hurricane!!

 

[saichuen]

ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.

AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins...

It's interesting to see that AIM is being compared here with CBH since one is in the explorer status with a promise to produce in mid-2007 while the other is a current producer who is already producing and will be back on track in full capacity by October. While I do agree that AIM has the potential, but in a volatile market today, broken promises will be severely punished.

My 2cents worth...

Happy Trading All!

 

[porkpie324]

i have to agree with the last post, a miner digging something up with good reserves is better than prospective miner, although don't get me wrong AIM does have good potential. Its just a higher risk when things are about to happen. porkpie

 

[dj_420]

Yes i agree, and the market does punish firms who dont keep promises. now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer

 

[nizar]

now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer

Not only the shareholders will be disappointed but so will the 3 companies who have already signed offtake agreements with AIM including Xstrata!

 

[dj_420]

Another article on zinc

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7185


Expect zinc prices to be in USD 3,700 range: Uttam Galva
Source: Moneycontrol.com



See also
Zinc Board
Zinc CatalogUttam Galva Steel is in news because the company has announced that they will be hiking galvanised steel prices by about Rs 1,000 a tonne, with immediate effect. There is buoyancy in international prices, which does hold an argument for this increase.

Director of Uttam Galva Steels, Ankit Miglani says that steel prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.

He adds that they foresee zinc prices to go up much faster and expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ankit Miglani:

Q: Explain to us really the rationale behind increasing prices now, given that steel is a raw material for you and zinc has seen some amount of cooling off in the month of September?

A: You are absolutely right. There was some sort of cooling off at the beginning, but we must realise that the actual pricing is done on monthly averages and on global demand supplies. On a day-to-day basis, one might see some slackening in prices, but if one looks at it on a monthly perspective, the prices have actually been consistently going up over the past few months.

As far as steel is concerned, the prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.

We are seeing an increase of USD 30-USD 40 per tonne over the past couple of weeks. This is primarily because of the fact that Chinese export rebates have been cut, so their exports have become less competitive in the global market. That has a direct impact on Indian steel industries because we have only a 5% duty now and anything that happens in the world affects the Indian steel industry directly.

Q: Today internationally zinc is quoting at about USD 3,360 per tonne level. You have hiked prices by Rs 1000 at this point in time. Going forward, how many more hikes are likely to match these international price levels?

A: The zinc price today is really less relevant. It is more important to see what is the average for the whole month, because that is how the real pricing is done. If zinc stays at these levels, the average price will be higher than last month's average zinc price. But we foresee zinc to go up much faster. We expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range in which case we would expect much stronger increases in galvanised prices also.

Q: Could you quantify that?

A: It depends on the exact quantum of the zinc price increase, because zinc is probably a 7% input cost for galvanised steel. According to that ratio, the prices of galvanised steel would keep increasing.